Heat & Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Sunday 5/22/22 Heat & Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Intense Heat & Humidity ongoing this weekend away from the east and south coastal areas so continue to use caution outdoors with any strenuous activities, drink plenty of uncaffeinated liquids and find locations to cool off if out in the heat and humidity for an extended period of the time. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM Sunday Evening for the entire NWS Norton Coverage area except for the East Slopes of the Berkshires, South Coastal Rhode Island and East and South Coastal Massachusetts for heat indices to 100 degrees. .
..There remains the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms on Sunday Afternoon and Evening in interior portions of Southern New England. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued most of Southern New England in a marginal risk of severe weather with areas of Western and Northwest Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut in a slight risk for severe weather for Sunday Afternoon and Evening. The greatest risk for severe weather is in the slight risk area and interior portions of Southern New England away from coastal Southern New England between 2-10 PM Sunday..
..Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats with any strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Sunday Afternoon and Evening..

Intense heat and humidity will affect Southern New England this weekend with heat advisories posted for most of the NWS Norton coverage area as posted in the headlines of the message. There remains the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday Afternoon and Evening in the slight risk of severe weather area in Western and Northwest Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut and interior portions of Southern New England. The headlines depict the current thinking. The main key factor in the severe weather potential for Sunday will be the forcing of the cold front timed close enough to peak heating of the day to take advantage of high instability and marginally sufficient wind shear that’s in place for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to develop along with some potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms earlier in the afternoon with a prefrontal trough tapping into to potentially good instability and marginally favorable wind shear in the earlier portions of the afternoon.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Sunday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message on Sunday’s severe weather potential as we shift to operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement and Graphics, Area Forecast Discussion and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory and Heat Indices Graphics:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/heat_advisory-1.png
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Max-Temp-May-22.png
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Heat-Index-Chart1.png

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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