Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible to likely over an expanded portions of Southern New England Thursday Afternoon and Evening with the greatest potential in interior Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut and North-Central Rhode Island north and west of the Boston to Providence corridor though all areas should monitor with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed the region north and west of the Boston to Providence corridor in a slight risk for severe weather with areas from Boston to Providence south and east in a marginal risk for severe weather. The timeframe for the activity is between 3-11 PM Thursday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening..

At 1040 AM, a warm front is moving through New England on Thursday bringing in more humid and somewhat warmer conditions to the region for later this morning through the remainder of the day and Satellite imagery is showing considerable clearing behind the warm front to allow for destabilization in the region. A cold front and trough is currently in Western New York and is causing several severe thunderstorms in this area. This activity will move east and with the clearing and destabilization ahead of the front, that should allow for a reasonable coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms across our coverage area. As always is the case in these scenarios, not every city or town will see a strong to severe thunderstorm but the coverage will be isolated to scattered and could become a bit more numerous if the following key factors are met:

1.) Heating and destabilization continues as current satellite imagery indicates creating a higher level of instability to allow for some mitigating instability factors to be overcome. Shear will be sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorm development.
2.) Forcing moves in close enough to peak heating in the region.
3.) Storms are able to organize sufficiently has discreet storms or a line or short segment lines of strong to severe thunderstorms.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

Hello to all…

..Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday Afternoon and Evening in Western, Central and Northern Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed this area in a marginal risk for severe weather for Thursday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday..

A warm front will move through New England on Thursday bringing in more humid and somewhat warmer conditions. As this occurs, a weak cold front will swing through the area. There will be sufficient shear in the atmosphere for isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development. The key factors will be lift along the front, ability for shear to coincide with sufficient instability presuming enough heating and destabilization for isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development. As we saw this past Monday, the right combination of factors have to come into place for severe thunderstorm development or activity will be quite isolated or muted so will be monitoring these conditions as we get into Thursday to see if that overlap of instability, shear and a source of lift come together for isolated severe thunderstorms in the marginal risk area.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 AM Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2022/day2otlk_20220727_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

Hello to all…

..Intense heat and humidity expected into Monday with a cold front which will bring somewhat cooler and much less humid air that will be a trigger for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued all of Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather. The threat timeframe remains around 12-10 PM Monday Afternoon and Evening and SPC has indicated an 80% chance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect through 500 PM Monday Evening for portions of Eastern and Southeast Massachusetts and North-Central Rhode Island. Use caution if outdoors doing strenuous activities and drink plenty of non-alcoholic and non-caffeinated drinks during this period..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday late morning through evening..

We continue to be in a stretch of oppressive heat and humidity over the region with many locations in a 7-day heat wave. As of 1045 AM, Doppler Radar is showing a line of showers and a few thunderstorms from Southeast New York into Northwest Massachusetts into Northern New England. There are cloud breaks over much of interior Southern New England with low clouds from the ocean over southeast coastal New England. Further west, there is more clearing followed by the cold front which could be a trigger mechanism for a second round of strong to severe thunderstorms from late afternoon to mid-evening.

It is unclear whether the first round of activity, the second round of activity or both rounds will have severe weather potential. Models imply that the second round will be more robust with less severe potential in the first round of activity. Both rounds of potential showers and thunderstorms will bear watching for severe potential. The headlines depict the current thinking. The major key factor is as follows:

How the two rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity and severe weather potential evolves. There could be activity further east with the first round of showers and thunderstorms that strengthens in the interior with the instability and some heating taking place followed by a break with enough sunshine for destabilization that allows a second round of activity for later this afternoon and evening. The first round could be non-severe with clearing that allows the severe weather potential to be realized for the second round of activity or the activity between the two rounds doesn’t allow for destabilization such that the severe potential is more muted or isolated. At this time, the scattered severe thunderstorm activity is still expected and the second round of activity is slightly more favored to produce severe weather both rounds of activity will be monitored and both could produce at least some severe weather in scattered locations. Once again, we remind folks that not every single city or town will experience a strong to severe thunderstorm. The coverage could be anywhere from scattered to numerous to more isolated, depending on how the two rounds of activity evolve.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday late morning through evening. This will be the last coordination message as we move into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook…

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement – Severe Weather Potential:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2207251519.wwus81.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion – 80% chance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2022/md1588.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

Hello to all…

..Intense heat and humidity expected into Monday with a cold front which will bring somewhat cooler and much less humid air that will be a trigger for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather. The threat timeframe is between 12-10 PM Monday Afternoon and Evening..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect through 500 PM Monday Evening for portions of Eastern and Southeast Massachusetts and North-Central Rhode Island. Use caution if outdoors doing strenuous activities and drink plenty of non-alcoholic and non-caffeinated drinks during this period..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening..

We continue to be in a stretch of oppressive heat and humidity over the region with many locations in a 7-day heat wave. During Monday Afternoon and evening, a cold front will bring an end to the heat and especially humidity over the region during the past week. This cold front will be stronger than the one on Thursday with the potential for more widespread coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms in the region but as is usually case, not every city or town will see a strong to severe thunderstorm. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Evolution of overnight convection and how much cloud cover affects the region Monday to see how much heating and destabilization occurs. There will be at least some heating but if temperatures get warmer than forecast, it would be an added trigger to bring more severe weather potential to the region.
2.) The timing of the cold front which is expected to be maybe a bit early for western areas but in the time of peak heating for central and eastern areas. This will bear watching tomorrow and will affect areas that have the most severe weather potential with favorable wind shear, instability and forcing with the cold front.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening. The next coordination message will be posted by 1130 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook…

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2022/day2otlk_20220724_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

Hello to all…

..Intense heat and humidity expected through Thursday with a cold front which will bring less humid air that will be a trigger for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather north and west of a Lawrence Mass to Willimantic CT line with a marginal risk for severe weather in the rest of Southern New England. The threat timeframe is between 12-8 PM Thursday Afternoon and Evening..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect through 800 PM Thursday Evening for much of Southern New England including Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island except for extreme south coastal areas and much of Western, Central and Eastern Massachusetts for heat indices up to 100-102 degrees expected. Use caution if outdoors doing strenuous activities and drink plenty of non-alcoholic and non-caffeinated drinks during this period..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening..

We continue to be in a stretch of oppressive heat and humidity over the region that will last through Thursday. During Thursday Afternoon and evening, a cold front or more like a dewpoint front separating higher dewpoint air from lower dewpoint air will move across the region and set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development across much of interior Southern New England with Northern Connecticut, Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts the favored areas in Southern New England. The headlines depict the current thinking which has little change except to pull the Slight risk area slightly north and west leaving much of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island in a marginal risk for severe weather. Key factors remain:

1.) The amount of forcing and the location of the cold front as it moves through the area at time of peak heating. This will determine the coverage and areal extent of severe thunderstorms in Southern New England. Some models favor just Northern New England with the most widespread activity with less activity in Southern New England while other models keep the coverage more widespread across both Northern and Southern New England away from south coastal areas. At this time, activity is likely to be more isolated to scattered in Southern New England but will bear close watching for more widespread activity given the instability and shear in place.
2.) As stated in item 1, instability, wind shear profiles and other factors are all quite favorable for severe thunderstorm development so if the forcing arrives at the time of peak heating, that will make severe thunderstorms more widespread but if it remains over Northern New England then activity will be isolated or scattered and right now the isolated to scattered case looks reasonable at this time. In either case, not every city or town will receive a strong or severe thunderstorm but the amount of forcing and how quickly it shifts east will determine the coverage over the region.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook…

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

Hello to all…

..Intense heat and humidity expected through Thursday with a cold front which will bring less humid air that will be a trigger for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather north of South Coastal Rhode Island and Massachusetts with south coastal areas in a marginal risk for severe weather. The threat timeframe is between 12-8 PM Thursday Afternoon and Evening..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect through 800 PM Thursday Evening for much of Southern New England including Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island except for extreme south coastal areas and much of Western, Central and Eastern Massachusetts for heat indices up to 100-102 degrees expected. Use caution if outdoors doing strenuous activities and drink plenty of non-alcoholic and non-caffeinated drinks during this period..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening..

We continue to be in a stretch of oppressive heat and humidity over the region that will last through Thursday. During Thursday Afternoon and evening, a cold front or more like a dewpoint front separating higher dewpoint air from lower dewpoint air will move across the region and set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development across much of interior Southern New England with Northern Connecticut, Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts the favored areas in Southern New England. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The amount of forcing and the location of the cold front as it moves through the area at time of peak heating. This will determine the coverage and areal extent of severe thunderstorms in Southern New England. Some models favor just Northern New England with the most widespread activity with less activity in Southern New England while other models keep the coverage more widespread across both Northern and Southern New England away from south coastal areas. This should become better defined as we go into tomorrow morning.
2.) Instability, wind shear profiles and other factors are all quite favorable for severe thunderstorm development so if the forcing arrives at the time of peak heating, that will make severe thunderstorms more widespread but if it remains over Northern New England then activity will be isolated or scattered. In either case, not every city or town will receive a strong or severe thunderstorm but the amount of forcing and how quickly it shifts east will determine the coverage over the region.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook…

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2022/day2otlk_20220720_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely across Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut and possible through Northeast Connecticut, Northwest Rhode Island and Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts along and northwest of the I-95 corridor Monday Afternoon and Evening with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats and an isolated tornado as a secondary threat.
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut in a slight risk of severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather from the I-95 corridor of Boston to Providence north and west through Central and Northeast Massachusetts and Northeast Connecticut..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening..

An area of showers and thunderstorms is moving through the region Monday Morning. The area is mostly showers across interior Southern New England with some strong thunderstorms across South Coasal Connecticut and over Long Island Sound. The activity over Long Island sound will be monitored for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm over Southeast New England but this area should largely be non-severe and should clear Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut between 12-2 PM and areas further east around or after 2 PM. After that area moves through, the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be likely in the Slight Risk for severe weather area and possible in the marginal risk for severe weather area for Monday Afternoon and evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Amount of heating and destabilization that can occur after the initial showers and thunderstorms move through the area. As of 1030 AM Monday Morning, satellite imagery is showing a lot of clouds but some thinning occurring in Central Pennsylvania and Central New York. This clearing if it becomes more widespread coupled with the very strong shear profiles would set the stage for strong to severe thunderstorm development later this afternoon into early evening. Also, given the strong wind shear, it will not take much heating given the high dewpoint air in the region to allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development particularly in the slight risk area. The key will be having at least some cloud breaks and the movement of the current rain area east of the slight and marginal risk areas by roughly the 12-2 PM time window and that the warm front gets far enough to the north to allow a good portion of the risk areas to be in the warm sector.
2.) The timing of the cold front and how far east the forcing gets to allow for thunderstorm and severe weather development.
3.) Heavy rainfall is expected. The rain will be beneficial but if its heavy enough and falls in a short enough period of time, it can result in urban and poor drainage flooding in susceptible areas.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and WPC Day-1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

WPC Day-1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across portions of Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut Monday Afternoon and Evening with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats and an isolated tornado as a secondary threat. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut in a marginal risk of severe weather for Monday and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed much of Southern New England north and west of the I-95 corridor in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening..

An area of showers and thunderstorms will likely form and move into the region during Monday Morning. This area should be non-severe but will be monitored for any severe potential. After that area moves through, the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible for Monday Afternoon and evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Amount of heating and destabilization that can occur after the initial showers and thunderstorms move through the area presuming that forms as expected.
2.) The timing of the cold front and how far east the forcing gets to allow for thunderstorm and severe weather development.
3.) Heavy rainfall is expected. The rain will be beneficial but if its heavy enough and falls in a short enough period of time, it can result in urban and poor drainage flooding in susceptible areas.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 1230 PM Monday Afternoon. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2022/day2otlk_20220717_1730.html

WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

This past week of Monday 7/11/22-Friday 7/15/22 was Hurricane Preparedness Week in Southern New England. NWS Boston/Norton issued a series of Public Information Statements for Hurricane Preparedness Week. Below is a link to those statements and the NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Preparednes page:

NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statements – Hurricane Preparedness:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/PNS_Hurricane_Preparedness_Week_7_11_22_7_15_22.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Preparedness Week in Southern New England Web Page:
https://www.weather.gov/box/hurricane_safety

We hope folks will take the time now to review hurricane and tropical system safety plans in case our region is impacted as we approach the peak months for impacts from tropical systems or their hybrid equivalents in the August through October timeframe.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..After the most organized severe weather event so far in this quite summer season of severe weather on Tuesday 7/12/22, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island this Thursday mid-afternoon to early evening particularly along any seabreeze boundaries that form in and around the marginal risk area. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and localized heavy rainfall leading to brief urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Eastern Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather this Thursday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any isolated strong to severe thunderstorm potential for this Thursday Afternoon and Evening..

Tuesday 7/12/22 featured the most organized severe thunderstorm event in what has been a quiet summer season of severe weather for Southern New England. Any post storm damage reports, pictures and videos can be posted on our WX1BOX social media feeds, as a reply to this message or to the email address pics@nsradio.org. Below is the NWS Local Storm Report and Amateur Radio log from the Tuesday 7/12/22 severe weather event:

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Tuesday 7/12/22:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/lsr_7_12_22.pdf

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Complete log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/reports_7_12_22.pdf

For today, we are not expecting an organized severe weather event like Tuesday 7/12/22 but strong instability with some strong upper level winds aloft along with a trigger via seabreeze fronts/boundaries could allow for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island and SPC has upgraded much of Eastern Massachusetts to a marginal risk for severe weather. SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this potential for this Thursday Afternoon and Evening.

This will be the only coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2022/day1otlk_20220714_1630.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box