Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday Afternoon & Evening 7/2/22 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all…
..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to potential urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a Slight Risk for severe weather except for Southeast Coastal Massachusetts and Newport County Rhode Island which are under a marginal risk for severe weather for Saturday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening to monitor this severe weather potential..
A potentially active severe weather day is likely on Saturday Afternoon and Evening with the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in clusters or line segments to affected much of Southern New England Saturday Afternoon and Evening. As is the case with strong to severe thunderstorms, not every location, city or town will see this activity but isolated to scattered pockets of strong to severe thunderstorms will affect the region as a cold front brings an end to intense heat and humidity to the region. Conditions will dry out late Saturday Night into Sunday Morning from northwest and Southeast allowing for nice summer weather for July 4th long weekend activities from Sunday Afternoon through Monday Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) There will be some shower and thunderstorm activity (most likely non-severe) late Friday Night and early Saturday Morning. The amount of clearing to allow for more intense destabilization after this activity moves through will be a key factor in determining the extent of strong to severe thunderstorms during the time of peak heating Saturday Afternoon and Evening.
2.) If there is strong clearing with the favorable wind shear profiles in place, this could allow for more a potent severe weather event across the region and this will be monitored.
3.) There will also be the possibility for some isolated thunderstorms Friday Afternoon and early evening but are expected to be typical non-severe thunderstorms though this will also be monitored.
SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening to monitor this severe weather potential. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Saturday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: firstname.lastname@example.org
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