Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday 8/26/22 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all…
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe thunderstorms are possible to likely in interior Southern New England with the greatest potential in Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this area in a slight risk for severe weather but areas across interior North-Central Rhode Island through Eastern Massachusetts along and west of I-95 corridor should also monitor as SPC has these areas in a marginal risk for severe weather. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. Threat timeframe is anytime between 12 PM-10 PM Friday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this severe weather potential for Friday Afternoon and Evening across the region..
A cold front will move through the region timed with peak heating and will bring the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across interior Southern New England. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) Sufficient heating and destabilization ahead of the cold front timed near peak heating to allow for enough instability for strong to severe thunderstorm development. That is currently expected to be in place.
2.) Sufficient forcing as the front moves into the region to tap into and trigger the instability in the atmosphere for severe thunderstorm development.
3.) Sufficiently strong wind shear values making it far enough south with proper jet stream orientation to allow for severe thunderstorm development.
4.) If the 3 above factors can align, it could bring the typical main threats of strong to damaging winds and hail to be a bit more widespread and also have a secondary risk of an isolated tornado in our coverage area.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Friday Afternoon and Evening across the region. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: email@example.com