Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Friday 8/4/23 Severe Weather and Flood Potential
Hello to all…
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely particularly Friday mid-Afternoon through Friday Night and expanded a bit eastward through Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island but all areas should monitor. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and North-Central Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut into a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk through Northern Connecticut, Northwest Rhode Island and Northeast Massachusetts with an 80% chance for a severe thunderstorm watch for parts of the area..
..Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lighting and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats with the most focused severe weather potential timeframe between 3-10 PM Friday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential for Friday..
Another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely for this Friday Afternoon and Evening including an 80% chance for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern New England. The headlines depict current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) While less heating is expected than prior severe weather events we had in July, cooling aloft and other unfavorable severe weather parameters in July will be more favorable than those events in July and likely compensate for lack of heating.
2.) Wind shear profiles are marginally sufficient for severe thunderstorm development.
3.) Timing of the cold front will be reasonably timed for western areas to see isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms but maybe a bit later than peak heating in eastern areas and this will have to be monitored on how far east any strong to severe thunderstorms can progress into those areas.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential for Friday. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and Mesoscale Convective Discussion:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook & Mesoscale Convective Discussion:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1830.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
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