Hurricane Lee Coordination Message #1 – Late Friday Night 9/15/23-Saturday 9/16/23 Tropical Storm Impacts in Eastern New England
Hello to all…
..Hurricane Lee will impact portions of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island with tropical storm conditions late Friday Night into Saturday. Preparations for tropical storm conditions should begin now in eastern areas of Southern New England..
..A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect from Watch Hill Rhode Island to Stonington Maine including Marthas Vineyard, Nantucket and Block Island. The Tropical Storm Watch includes Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes, Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts and Bristol, Newport and Washington Counties of Rhode Island for sustained winds of 20-40 MPH and gusts 50-70 MPH with isolated higher gusts. The highest sustained winds and wind gusts will be over Southeast Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands and Eastern Essex County Massachusetts..
..Rainfall amounts of 1-4″ are expected in portions of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island with the highest amounts in Eastern and Southeast Coastal Massachusetts..
..A Storm Surge Watch is now in effect for Cape Cod Bay and Nantucket..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely during the tropical storm force conditions and additional activation measures will be reviewed..
Another active day of severe weather and flash flooding today in Southern New England particularly in Connecticut and Rhode Island. See the NWS Local Storm Report and the current WX1BOX Amateur Radio & non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Report log for reports received:
NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/LSR_BOX_9_13_23.pdf
WX1BOX Amateur Radio/Non-Amateur Radio Spotter Log – 9/13/23 Severe Weather & Flash Flood Event:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/reports_9_13_23.pdf
Hurricane Lee while currently expected to track approximately 100-150 miles east of Cape Cod and Nantucket will have the potential to bring tropical storm force conditions to the Tropical Storm Watch area late Friday Night into Saturday. This means heavy rainfall and the potential for urban, poor drainage, river and stream flooding, strong to damaging winds that could be exacerbated by saturated soils and fully leaved out trees and coastal storm surge flooding in portions of coastal Southern New England. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) The track of Lee can still have about 100-150 nautical mile error. The current track guidance gives the current set of conditions. If the track shifts further east, the impacts would be lessened and confined to the Eastern Massachusetts coast. If the track shifts west, it would expand the tropical storm force conditions further into Southern New England.
2.) Lee’s large size and any expansion in size depending on the track could also expand impacts in Southern New England or make impacts in the current Tropical Storm Watch area higher. This will be monitored.
3.) Timing and track of Lee’s approach to the region with the high tide cycle will determine extent of coastal flooding.
4.) The track will determine how much rainfall and where the heaviest will fall in the region.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely during the tropical storm force conditions and additional activation measures will be reviewed. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Hurricane Local Statement, Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory and NHC Adivsory Information, Key Messages and Storm Graphics:
NWS Boston/Norton – Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton – Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
NWS Boston/Norton – Hurricane Local Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=HLS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton – Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=TCV&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:
Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt33.KNHC.html
Hurricane Lee Technical Discussion Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt43.KNHC.html
Hurricane Lee Forecast/Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt23.KNHC.html
Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font13.KNHC.html
Hurricane Lee Key Messages:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/092753.shtml?key_messages#contents
Hurricane Lee Storm Graphics:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/092753.shtml?cone#contents
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
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