Severe Weather/Flash Flood/Heat Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday 7/8/25 Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential
Hello to all…
..Intense Heat and Humidity for today will give way to an isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm and flash flood risk later Tuesday Afternoon and Evening..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England now though the greater risk is for thunderstorms and heavy rainfall with the secondary risk being severe weather. Frequent lightning and Heavy rainfall leading to urban/poor drainage/river/stream/flash flooding is the main threat for much of the region but a secondary severe weather threat for strong to damaging winds and hail is also possible..
..The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has continued much of Southern New England in a slight risk for excessive/rainfall and flash flood potential while the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has expanded the marginal risk for severe weather to much of Southern New England Tuesday..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect from 2 PM Tuesday Afternoon through late Tuesday Night for Northern Connecticut, Providence, Kent, Washington Counties of Rhode Island, Eastern Hampden, Southern Worcester, Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts for 1-2″ inches of rain or more falling in an hour or less and any training of thunderstorms causing higher rainfall amounts particularly in vulnerable flood areas could cause pockets of flash flooding in the Flood Watch area..
..A Heat Advisory is also in effect through 8 PM Tuesday Evening for all of Southern New England except for the East Slopes of the Berkshires and the islands for heat indices to 100 degrees. Use caution exerting yourself outdoors, take frequent breaks and stay hydrated/find a location to cool down today..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are possible to likely Tuesday Afternoon and Evening for severe weather and flash flood potential. Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, and flooding can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook, X and Bluesky feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..
..A more complete coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..
**Post Severe Weather Coordination Message for the Thursday 7/3/25 Severe Weather Event, a likely final posting, will be completed later on Tuesday AM**
The headlines depict the current thinking on today’s severe weather, flash flood potential for today across Southern New England. Key factors for today include:
1.) Where a frontal boundary and any seabreeze fronts setup as these will be the locations that have a trigger point for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms and potential flash flooding.
2.) For the severe weather potential, heating of the day and favorable parameters pointing to severe weather potential overcome limiting factors that could prevent any severe thunderstorm development as the unfavorable factors include things such as weaker wind shear profiles.
3.) As always with severe/non-severe thunderstorm and flash flood events, not all locations will receive a severe/non-severe thunderstorm or flash flood event. They will be isolated to scattered with pockets of wind damage, hail and urban/poor drainage/river/stream/flash flooding in those isolated to scattered locations some of which could be significant if a storm is water loaded enough to bring damaging winds or train over a vulnerable flood area to cause flash flooding.
SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets possible to likely Tuesday Afternoon and Evening for severe weather and flash flood potential. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, and flooding can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook, X and Bluesky feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated.
NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=FFA&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
WPC Day-1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd (defaults to Day-1 outlook)
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php (defaults to Day-1 graphics)
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
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