Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Thursday 7/14/16 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely across Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut Thursday Afternoon into early evening, strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats. There is the secondary threat for an isolated tornado in this area.
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western New England in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather eastward into Central New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely no later than 2-3 PM to monitor this severe weather potential..
The headlines of this coordination message depict the severe weather potential mainly over Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut for Thursday Afternoon into early evening. There is expected to be sufficient instability and shear with a trigger in the atmosphere for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development over Western New England. Factors that will affect the outlook are as follows:
1.) Any cloud cover and lingering shower/thunderstorm activity in the morning that could temper instability. Doppler Radar shows an area of showers moving northeast associated with a warm front pushing through Southern New England. Behind that front, satellite imagery shows good clearing to allow for destabilization in the atmosphere to allow for sufficient instability.
2.) Timing of the pre-frontal trough to act as a trigger in the atmosphere into Western New England. This timing is expected to be close enough to peak heating to allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development.
At this time, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected with the primary threats of strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning, however, there is a secondary threat for an isolated tornado for any thunderstorms that form out ahead of the main line of thunderstorms or as the line of thunderstorms organizes. If any occur, they will likely be of the short lived and smaller scale nature.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely no later than 2-3 PM to monitor this severe weather potential. This will be the last message on this severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely across Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut Thursday Afternoon into early evening, strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats. There is the secondary threat for an isolated tornado in this area.
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western New England in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather eastward into Central New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely no later than 2-3 PM to monitor this severe weather potential..
The headlines of this coordination message depict the severe weather potential mainly over Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut for Thursday Afternoon into early evening. There is expected to be sufficient instability and shear with a trigger in the atmosphere for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development over Western New England. Factors that will affect the outlook are as follows:
1.) Any cloud cover and lingering shower/thunderstorm activity in the morning that could temper instability. Doppler Radar shows an area of showers moving northeast associated with a warm front pushing through Southern New England. Behind that front, satellite imagery shows good clearing to allow for destabilization in the atmosphere to allow for sufficient instability.
2.) Timing of the pre-frontal trough to act as a trigger in the atmosphere into Western New England. This timing is expected to be close enough to peak heating to allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development.
At this time, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected with the primary threats of strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning, however, there is a secondary threat for an isolated tornado for any thunderstorms that form out ahead of the main line of thunderstorms or as the line of thunderstorms organizes. If any occur, they will likely be of the short lived and smaller scale nature.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely no later than 2-3 PM to monitor this severe weather potential. This will be the last message on this severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box