Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday 8/6/16 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely over much of Southern New England around midday through early evening Saturday. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall causing urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has all of New England and Eastern New York in a marginal risk for severe weather with a potential upgrade to a slight risk to severe weather possible in later outlooks..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 11 AM Saturday lasting through early evening for the severe weather potential..
A cold front will be approaching Southern New England during the early afternoon through early evening hours Saturday. Presuming there is no early morning convective activity or any early morning convective activity moves out of the area with any clouds pushing through the region to allow for sufficient daytime heating and destabilization for instability, the cold front acting as a triggering mechanism during a favorable time of day and strong wind shear profiles should set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms either in a single squall line or a couple of short lines or clusters moving through the region. While favorable areas maybe along and south of the Mass Pike, much of Southern New England could see some isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms move through their area. As always with severe weather in New England, severe thunderstorms will hit some localized areas and miss others and there are some key factors which will dictate the coverage of any strong to severe thunderstorms which include:
1.) Any early morning thunderstorm activity and any cloud debris from that activity as mentioned earlier.
2.) The timing of the cold front and triggering mechanism into the area. If its timing isn’t near peak heating presuming sufficient heating and destabilization, that may limit strong to severe thunderstorm coverage. If its timed correctly as expected, the timing of the front provided sufficient heating should allow for strong to severe thunderstorm development.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 11 AM Saturday lasting through early evening for the severe weather potential. The next coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Saturday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2016/day2otlk_20160805_1730.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Hello to all..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely over much of Southern New England around midday through early evening Saturday. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall causing urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has all of New England and Eastern New York in a marginal risk for severe weather with a potential upgrade to a slight risk to severe weather possible in later outlooks..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 11 AM Saturday lasting through early evening for the severe weather potential..
A cold front will be approaching Southern New England during the early afternoon through early evening hours Saturday. Presuming there is no early morning convective activity or any early morning convective activity moves out of the area with any clouds pushing through the region to allow for sufficient daytime heating and destabilization for instability, the cold front acting as a triggering mechanism during a favorable time of day and strong wind shear profiles should set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms either in a single squall line or a couple of short lines or clusters moving through the region. While favorable areas maybe along and south of the Mass Pike, much of Southern New England could see some isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms move through their area. As always with severe weather in New England, severe thunderstorms will hit some localized areas and miss others and there are some key factors which will dictate the coverage of any strong to severe thunderstorms which include:
1.) Any early morning thunderstorm activity and any cloud debris from that activity as mentioned earlier.
2.) The timing of the cold front and triggering mechanism into the area. If its timing isn’t near peak heating presuming sufficient heating and destabilization, that may limit strong to severe thunderstorm coverage. If its timed correctly as expected, the timing of the front provided sufficient heating should allow for strong to severe thunderstorm development.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 11 AM Saturday lasting through early evening for the severe weather potential. The next coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Saturday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2016/day2otlk_20160805_1730.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box