Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday 9/13/22 Severe Weather & Flash Flood Potential
Hello to all…
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England through Tuesday Evening with interior locations of Southern New England and locations in Western and Northern Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut favored. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather except for portions of Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut which are in a slight risk for severe weather for late Tuesday Morning through early Tuesday Evening. The timeframe for severe weather potential will be through 8 PM this Tuesday evening..
..Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and flash flood potential and a low risk for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm continues over Southeast Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island where some areas have received over 3″ of rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flash flood potential for Tuesday..
This morning portions of Southern Rhode Island and Southeast coastal Massachusetts had heavy rainfall in thunderstorms with some flooding to flash flood issues in portions of the area. Portions of Southeast New England continue to receive thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding with an isolated severe thunderstorm possible. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report and WX1BOX Amateur Radio log on this activity:
NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2209131635.nwus51.html
WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/reports_9_13_22_rev_1.pdf
A cold front will move through the Northeast later Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Strong wind shear profiles and sufficient instability will allow for the possibility of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms as the front will eventually usher in fall-like weather for a couple of days as we go through the rest of the week. The headlines depict the current thinking and key factors include:
1.) Amount of instability as cloud cover could prevent severe thunderstorm development. At this time, there appears to be sufficient heating and destabilization particularly in Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut to allow for at least isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development.
2.) Amount of forcing and whether it is sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms. At this time, this should be sufficient in areas of Western and Central Massachusetts and
3.) Sufficient overlap of forcing and instability, which is currently expected over Western and Northern Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut but will need to be monitored further east along with factors one and two.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org