Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Thursday Evening 8/10/23-Friday Morning 8/11/23 – Severe Weather & Flood Potential
Hello to all…
..Relentless severe weather and flood potential pattern continues for portions of Southern New England with next chance late Thursday Afternoon through early morning Friday particularly between around 6 PM Thursday Evening to 2 AM Friday Morning give or take an hour or two and the focus across Eastern New England. Additional chances for severe weather and flooding are possible this weekend into early next week and will be dealt with in future messages..
..The Storm Prediction Center has placed Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather for late Thursday afternoon into Friday Morning for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of strong to damaging winds and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding as the primary threats but an isolated tornado and/or waterspout is also possible..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect for Central and Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island from Thursday Afternoon into Friday Morning for rainfall of widespread 1-3″ with isolated higher amounts of 3-4″+ leading to urban, poor drainage, river and stream flooding particularly in areas hardest hit from Tuesday’s rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed this area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with likely be needed for severe weather, flood and rain gauge reports. Pictures and videos of storm damage and flooding can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..
Tuesday 8/8/23 was another impactful severe weather and flash flood event for the region. An EF1 Tornado occurred in Mattapoisett Mass and an EF0 Tornado in the Marstons Mills section of Barnstable, MA. Significant flash flooding also affected the region particularly in Northeast Massachusetts. We will summarize all the info in Thursday Morning’s coordination message.
Another round of severe weather and flooding could occurs in portions of Southern New England late Thursday Afternoon into Friday Morning. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) The intensity of the storm system as models vary its intensity but some reliable guidance is indicating a deep low pressure system for this time of year that is more indicative of spring time than summer which would increase the severe weather, heavy rainfall and flood potential.
2.) The track of the storm as that will determine what areas get into the warm sector increasing the severe weather and isolated tornado potential. Right now that’s centered in the current marginal risk for severe weather area by SPC.
3.) Where the heaviest rainfall occurs and how it relates to areas hit hard by the Tuesday severe weather and flood event.
SKYWARN Self-Activation with likely be needed for severe weather, flood and rain gauge reports. Pictures and videos of storm damage and flooding can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Another coordination message will be posted by 1230 PM Thursday Afternoon. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=FFA&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2023/day2otlk_20230809_1730.html
WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook & Discussion:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
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