Storm Coordination Message #3 – Late Sunday Afternoon 1/19/25-Early Monday Morning 1/20/25 Moderate Snowstorm Potential
Hello to all…
..Moderate Snowstorm likely for much of Southern New England late Sunday Afternoon into early Monday Morning followed by bitter cold conditions, the coldest of the season, for several days next week..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 1 PM Sunday Afternoon to 7 AM Monday Morning for Hartford, Tolland Counties of Connecticut, Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester, Middlesex and Essex Counties of Massachusetts for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts of up to 10″. The heaviest snow is expected to occur between 6 PM Sunday Evening to 1 AM Monday Morning give or take 1-2 hours..
..A Winter Storm Watch is in effect from Sunday Afternoon to Monday Morning for Windham County Connecticut, Providence County Rhode Island, Norfolk and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts for 4-8″ of snow. Areas outside of the Winter Storm Watch area could see at least a plowable snowfall depending on the track and intensity of the storm..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets likely Sunday Evening for in-storm snowfall amounts and Monday Morning for final snowfall amounts. The Amateur Radio Net schedule for gathering snowfall reports will be posted in the Sunday Morning coordination message. Pictures and videos of the storm can be sent as a reply to this message, via the WX1BOX Facebook, X and Bluesky feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..
Confidence continues to grow in a moderate snowstorm for much of Southern New England though there still remains larger than normal model spread for a storm to affect the region in less than 24 hours. There remains high confidence in bitter cold conditions, the coldest of the season, after the storm has passed the region. The headlines depict current thinking with key factors for the moderate snowstorm including:
1.) The track of the storm system. Models have been coalescing with a bit more with the American GFS and Canadian model a bit more south and east and the European and American NAM short-range guidance a bit further north and west. This prompted much of the Winter Storm Watch area to be converted into a Warning with Winter Storm Watches expanded to the Boston to Providence corridor. A plowable snow is still possible for portions of Southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island. A track closer to the coast would be more mixing issues and lower amounts in Eastern New England, particularly Southeast New England, while a further offshore solution could slide the heaviest snowfall further east. This will continue to bear watching as we get closer to the event with the trend coalescing a bit more offshore in current model runs.
2.) The intensity of the storm system. Models are coalescing to a similar intensity which could allow for a several hour period of 1-2″ per hour snows with the timeframe for that heaviest snow between 6 PM Sunday Evening and 1 AM Monday Morning give or take 1-2 hours.
3.) The storm is expected to be progressive meaning snow occurring for a 10-15 hour period with the snow starting late Sunday Afternoon heaviest Sunday Evening and overnight ending by early Monday Morning between 7-10 AM. The timing will continue to be monitored.
SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets likely Sunday Evening for in-storm snowfall amounts and Monday Morning for final snowfall amounts. The Amateur Radio Net schedule for gathering snowfall reports will be posted in the Sunday Morning coordination message. Pictures and videos of the storm can be sent as a reply to this message, via the WX1BOX Facebook and X feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Another coordination message will be posted by 1100 AM Sunday Morning. Below is the Winter Storm Watch Statement/Snowfall Map, Area Forecast Discussion and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement/Snowfall Map:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box
Subscribe on YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@wx1box-nwsboston-amateur-radio