Storm Coordination Message #1 – Monday AM/Early PM 10/20/25 – Multi-Hazard Strong Cold Frontal Passage Potential

Hello to all…

..A strong cold front will move through Southern New England from west to east Monday Morning through early afternoon bringing with it a quick wind swept heavy rain capable of brief urban and poor drainage flooding and brief strong to damaging wind gusts of 40-50 MPH with isolated higher gusts capable of isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages along with potential minor coastal flooding in South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island with winds having a southerly component.
..Total rainfall of up to 1″ with isolated higher amounts is expected in a relative short period of time from this frontal passage. Timing brings the front and heaviest rainfall/strongest winds starting around 5-6 AM through about 9-10 AM in Western New England with timing in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island around 8 AM-11 AM perhaps extending through early afternoon in eastern most parts of Southern New England..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 5 AM to 11 AM Monday for South Coastal Rhode Island and Southern Bristol and Southern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for minor coastal flooding of shore roads at the time of high tide..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rain gauge reports, urban/poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall, measured wind gusts 40 MPH or greater, wind damage and any reports of minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide in Southeast Coastal New England Monday Morning into early Afternoon. Pictures and videos of storm damage, rain related flooding and coastal flooding can be sent as a reply to this message via the WX1BOX Facebook/X/Bluesky feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..

The headlines depict the current thinking on a strong cold frontal passage for Monday Morning to Early Afternoon. Key factors include:
1.) If more instability can develop or limited instability can be overcome, degree of strong to damaging wind gusts could be a bit more widespread or stronger than currently expected leading to a bit more wind damage.
2.) Timing of heavy rainfall as it being coincident with the morning commute could cause higher than normal impacts.
3.) With leaves falling off the trees, clogged storm drains with brief heavy rainfall could lead to more urban/poor drainage flooding than normal.
4.) Timing of the strongest winds with the Monday Morning high tide cycle will determine extent of coastal flooding.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rain gauge reports, urban/poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall, measured wind gusts 40 MPH or greater, wind damage and any reports of minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide in Southeast Coastal New England Monday Morning into early Afternoon. Pictures and videos of storm damage, rain related flooding and coastal flooding can be sent as a reply to this message via the WX1BOX Facebook/X/Bluesky feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Given the timing of the worst conditions, this will be the only coordination message as we shift into operations mode Monday Morning unless a significant update to the situation occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Advisory statement, Area Forecast Discussion and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=CFW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
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