Storm Coordination Message #4 – Monday AM to late Monday Night 3/16/26 Through Early Tuesday AM Strong to Damaging Wind/Heavy Rainfall Potential

Hello to all…

..Strong storm system ongoing through late Monday Night with the worst of the conditions Monday Night will have the potential for strong to damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall of 1-3″ with isolated amounts of 3-4″ and minor river/stream/urban flooding potential. Widespread rainfall amounts between 0.25″-1.50″ have occurred so far with the highest amounts in Southeast New England with wind gusts between 40-50 MPH. The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall will occur tonight into the overnight hours of Monday Night into early Tuesday Morning..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 5 PM Monday Afternoon through 6 AM Tuesday Morning for Rhode Island and all of Eastern Massachusetts for sustained winds 20-30 MPH with gusts to 65 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts to 70 MPH possible. A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 2 PM Monday Afternoon to 8 AM Tuesday Morning for Northern Connecticut, Western and Central Massachusetts for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 55 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts possible. These winds will have the potential for scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire NWS Norton MA Coverage area except for the islands for heavy rainfall of 1-3″ with isolated higher amounts of 3-4″ causing potential flooding of small rivers, streams, creeks and urbanized areas after recent snowmelt..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets possible will monitor for wind gusts 40 MPH or greater, wind damage, rain gauge reports and minor river/stream/urban flooding potential. Amateur Radio Net call-ups will be as needed on various Amateur Radio frequencies after 5 PM Monday Evening through late tonight with possibly a net or two early Tuesday Morning to collect final rain gauge totals, flooding, wind damage/measured wind gust 40 MPH and greater reports..
..Pictures/videos of the storm can be sent as a reply to this message via our WX1BOX Facebook/X/Bluesky feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..

The headlines depict the current thinking for a strong storm system on Monday with the worst conditions Monday Evening. Key factors remain with slight updates as listed below:
1.) A small temperature difference of 1-3 degrees will determine how strong and widespread the wind gusts are and how widespread the wind damage will be. Models seem to be indicating a higher end event with warmer temperatures with the damaging wind potential and models indicating wind gusts 60-65 MPH with isolated higher gusts to 70 MPH that will bear watching and High Wind Warnings are posted with a slight increase in max wind gusts noted for Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Across Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut, wind gusts have also been increased to high-end Wind Advisory criteria.
2.) Another factor that will impact the wind damage potential is any thunderstorm activity that can develop and be strong enough to efficiently bring strong to damaging winds down to the surface. Just heavier convective showers resulted in wind gusts of 40-50 MPH with isolated higher gusts and isolated pockets of wind damage Monday Morning. With stronger convection and winds later tonight, the wind damage potential will increase in any heavier convective showers and thunderstorms.
3.) How widespread heavy rainfall will be to cause minor flooding of rivers, streams and urban areas along with any ice jams causing issues with flooding. An ice jam on the Millers River in Athol, MA has cleared up per a SKYWARN Spotter but a new ice jam has developed on the Connecticut River at the Turners Falls dam and will be monitored for any flood potential if the heaviest rain develops in that area. Rainfall amounts have also crept up a bit in the forecast models prompting a Flood Watch to be posted for all of Southern New England except for the islands. Widespread rainfall of 0.25″-1.50″ with the highest amounts in Southeast New England have already been reported.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets possible will monitor for wind gusts 40 MPH or greater, wind damage, rain gauge reports and minor river/stream/urban flooding potential. Amateur Radio Net call-ups will be as needed on various Amateur Radio frequencies after 5 PM Monday Evening through late tonight with possibly a net or two early Tuesday Morning to collect final rain gauge totals, flooding, wind damage/measured wind gust 40 MPH and greater reports. Pictures/videos of the storm can be sent as a reply to this message via our WX1BOX Facebook/X/Bluesky feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. This will be the last coordination message as we continue in operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook.

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=FFA&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
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