Blizzard/Storm Coordination Message #5 – Tuesday Night 3/25/14-Wednesday 3/26/14 Winter Storm Event
Hello to all..
..Model Uncertainty Remains Higher Than Normal but have converged sufficiently on a current solution as outlined with this coordination message. It is noted that subtle changes in track by as little as 30-50 miles could still cause a significant change regarding snowfall amounts in Eastern and Southeast New England and where on Cape Cod and the Islands blizzard conditions will occur. Strong to Damaging Winds will be a threat especially in Southeast New England but in other parts of interior and coastal Southern New England..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect for Midnight Tonight through 2 PM Wednesday Afternoon for Cape Cod and the Islands for a general 5-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts to 12″ on Outer Cape and potentially Nantucket Island and sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60-70 MPH and possibly higher gusts to hurricane force on Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket Island with blizzard conditions likely. Isolated to Scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages are likely..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from Midnight Tonight Through Noon Wednesday for Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Newport County Rhode Island for 2-5″ of snow with isolated higher amounts closer to the Cape Cod Canal and blowing and drifting snow likely..
..A Coastal Flood Warning is now in effect from 6-10 AM EDT for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide likely..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 6-10 AM EDT for Southeast Coastal Massachusetts from the Greater Boston area south to Plymouth for minor coastal flooding with isolated pockets of moderate coastal flooding between Hull and Plymouth..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands and Eastern and Southern Plymouth County Massachusetts from 5 AM to 8 PM Wednesday for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60-70 MPH and possibly higher gusts to hurricane force on Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. Isolated to Scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages are likely..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect for the remainder of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area from 6 AM to 8 PM Wednesday for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 45-55 MPH with the strongest gusts over portions of the coast and Eastern New England. Isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages are possible to likely..
..In terms of snowfall, areas outside of the Winter Weather Advisory/Blizzard Warning area from the North Shore of Massachusetts and the Boston to Providence corridor through the Connecticut/Rhode Island border will now see a Dusting-2″ of snow. It is possible with a slightly closer track that areas from Boston and the MA/RI border to the current advisory areas could see slightly higher amounts with a slightly closer storm track to our area. Farther inland, little to no snow accumulation is expected..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 530 AM Wednesday Morning. Pictures of coastal flooding, wind damage and blizzard conditions can be sent to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the SKYWARN Spotter/Amateur Radio Operator for providing the pictures unless otherwise indicated and will be shared with the National Weather Service, Emergency Management and the media..
Model solutions have now reached a reasonable agreement on the current storm scenario though there remains higher than normal variability between the different models and some higher than normal variation run to run of the various models. As stated, wobbles in the track guidance, now as little as 30-50 miles will have significant impacts on the forecast. A track further west would increase impacts to Southeast New England and may allow for slightly higher snowfall amounts over the Boston to Providence Corridor. A track 30-50 miles further east would mean lighter impacts to the remainder of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island and the greatest impacts over Cape Cod and the Islands. As with many of our offshore systems this winter, there will be a sharp cutoff between heavier snow and lighter snowfall and will be monitored closely throughout this storm.
The blizzard/storm coordination message headlines above depict the current forecast scenario well. One item to emphasize and is likely the highest confidence portion of this event is the strong to damaging wind potential despite the offshore track of the storm system. The strength of the system and its size will allow for damaging winds on Cape Cod and the Islands and Eastern and Southern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts with the potential for gusts to hurricane force on the Outer Cape and Nantucket Island with isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. Strong to damaging winds particularly along other coastal areas and interior Eastern New England and strong winds well into the interior are also likely. This has prompted the Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings as noted in the headlines.
From a coastal flood perspective, the headlines depict the current scenario of minor to moderate coastal flooding for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island meaning potential for flooding of shore roads and potential shore road closures. In the area from Boston to Plymouth, minor coastal flooding of shore roads is expected with the potential for pockets of moderate coastal flooding between Hull and Plymouth.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 530 AM Wednesday Morning. Pictures of coastal flooding, wind damage and blizzard conditions can be sent to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the SKYWARN Spotter/Amateur Radio Operator for providing the pictures unless otherwise indicated and will be shared with the National Weather Service, Emergency Management and the media. This will be the last coordination message on this system as we move into activation/operations mode. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Warning/Coastal Flood Advisory Statement, High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
NWS Taunton Blizzard Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all..
..Model Uncertainty Remains Higher Than Normal but have converged sufficiently on a current solution as outlined with this coordination message. It is noted that subtle changes in track by as little as 30-50 miles could still cause a significant change regarding snowfall amounts in Eastern and Southeast New England and where on Cape Cod and the Islands blizzard conditions will occur. Strong to Damaging Winds will be a threat especially in Southeast New England but in other parts of interior and coastal Southern New England..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect for Midnight Tonight through 2 PM Wednesday Afternoon for Cape Cod and the Islands for a general 5-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts to 12″ on Outer Cape and potentially Nantucket Island and sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60-70 MPH and possibly higher gusts to hurricane force on Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket Island with blizzard conditions likely. Isolated to Scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages are likely..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from Midnight Tonight Through Noon Wednesday for Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Newport County Rhode Island for 2-5″ of snow with isolated higher amounts closer to the Cape Cod Canal and blowing and drifting snow likely..
..A Coastal Flood Warning is now in effect from 6-10 AM EDT for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide likely..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 6-10 AM EDT for Southeast Coastal Massachusetts from the Greater Boston area south to Plymouth for minor coastal flooding with isolated pockets of moderate coastal flooding between Hull and Plymouth..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands and Eastern and Southern Plymouth County Massachusetts from 5 AM to 8 PM Wednesday for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60-70 MPH and possibly higher gusts to hurricane force on Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. Isolated to Scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages are likely..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect for the remainder of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area from 6 AM to 8 PM Wednesday for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 45-55 MPH with the strongest gusts over portions of the coast and Eastern New England. Isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages are possible to likely..
..In terms of snowfall, areas outside of the Winter Weather Advisory/Blizzard Warning area from the North Shore of Massachusetts and the Boston to Providence corridor through the Connecticut/Rhode Island border will now see a Dusting-2″ of snow. It is possible with a slightly closer track that areas from Boston and the MA/RI border to the current advisory areas could see slightly higher amounts with a slightly closer storm track to our area. Farther inland, little to no snow accumulation is expected..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 530 AM Wednesday Morning. Pictures of coastal flooding, wind damage and blizzard conditions can be sent to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the SKYWARN Spotter/Amateur Radio Operator for providing the pictures unless otherwise indicated and will be shared with the National Weather Service, Emergency Management and the media..
Model solutions have now reached a reasonable agreement on the current storm scenario though there remains higher than normal variability between the different models and some higher than normal variation run to run of the various models. As stated, wobbles in the track guidance, now as little as 30-50 miles will have significant impacts on the forecast. A track further west would increase impacts to Southeast New England and may allow for slightly higher snowfall amounts over the Boston to Providence Corridor. A track 30-50 miles further east would mean lighter impacts to the remainder of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island and the greatest impacts over Cape Cod and the Islands. As with many of our offshore systems this winter, there will be a sharp cutoff between heavier snow and lighter snowfall and will be monitored closely throughout this storm.
The blizzard/storm coordination message headlines above depict the current forecast scenario well. One item to emphasize and is likely the highest confidence portion of this event is the strong to damaging wind potential despite the offshore track of the storm system. The strength of the system and its size will allow for damaging winds on Cape Cod and the Islands and Eastern and Southern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts with the potential for gusts to hurricane force on the Outer Cape and Nantucket Island with isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. Strong to damaging winds particularly along other coastal areas and interior Eastern New England and strong winds well into the interior are also likely. This has prompted the Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings as noted in the headlines.
From a coastal flood perspective, the headlines depict the current scenario of minor to moderate coastal flooding for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island meaning potential for flooding of shore roads and potential shore road closures. In the area from Boston to Plymouth, minor coastal flooding of shore roads is expected with the potential for pockets of moderate coastal flooding between Hull and Plymouth.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 530 AM Wednesday Morning. Pictures of coastal flooding, wind damage and blizzard conditions can be sent to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the SKYWARN Spotter/Amateur Radio Operator for providing the pictures unless otherwise indicated and will be shared with the National Weather Service, Emergency Management and the media. This will be the last coordination message on this system as we move into activation/operations mode. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Warning/Coastal Flood Advisory Statement, High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
NWS Taunton Blizzard Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box