Storm Coordination Message #4 – Sunday Evening 3/20/16-Monday Morning 3/21/16 Winter Storm Potential
Hello to all..
..Morning/early to mid afternoon model runs showing more spread again with upcoming coastal storm but highest threat of heaviest snowfall is in Southeast Massachusetts including lower to mid Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard including south and east coastal areas of Massachusetts as well as Southern Rhode Island. How far northwest the heavy snowfall goes is the lowest confidence portion of the current forecast..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 10 PM Sunday Evening through 11 AM Monday Morning for all of Rhode Island and for Suffolk, Norfolk, Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for 5-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts. Wind gusts inland will be near 30 MPH with wind gusts at the coast in the 35-45 MPH range. These winds coupled with the heavy wet snow may result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. The lower snowfall amounts in the range are expected to occur up towards the Boston area and northern Norfolk County with higher amounts closer to the I-95 belt and points south and east..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island RI and Martha’s Vineyard from 10 PM Sunday Evening to 11 AM Monday Morning for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts to 10″ except the Outer Cape which may experience only 1-4″ of snow and wind gusts in the 40-45 MPH range. With a slightly more eastern track of the system, there is higher confidence of heavier snow in this area. If the higher snow amounts occur given the heavy wet nature of the snow, this may result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 10 PM Sunday Evening to 11 AM Sunday Morning for Essex, Central and Southeast Middlesex, and Southern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts and all of Northern Connecticut for 3-5″ of snow. The snow in this area may not be as heavy as other locations but a few isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages are possible from the weight of the heavy wet snow. In this area, this is where the lowest confidence in snowfall amounts are and this forecast/update reflects current model trends and thinking..
..Areas north and west of the current Winter Storm Watches and Winter Weather Advisory could see a coating to 2″ of snow with isolated 3-4″ amounts in the areas closest to the current Winter Weather Advisory area and a Special Weather Statement has been issued for these areas..
..The Winter Storm Watch for Nantucket has been canceled due to rain and sleet holding down snow amounts to 1-3″ of snow..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this storm system and we have arranged for Ops at NWS Taunton centered around the midnight to noon Monday timeframe with the major focus in the 4 AM-Noon timeframe for snowfall amounts and wet snow damage reports..
Unfortunately, model spread has widened in terms of the track of this coastal storm and the weather models have been struggling with this storm for the last several days. There are several reliable models pulling the storm track further east while other models keep the more northwest track that prompted the upgrades. The headlines of the current coordination message reflect the current thinking. Key updates and themes:
1.) Snow will start later and more towards late Sunday Evening across Southern New England mainly after the 9-10 PM timeframe. The snow will also end later and more towards the late morning/early afternoon hours especially in Eastern New England resulting in greater impact to the Monday Morning commute.
2.) Wind Gusts at the coast could still potentially reaching 40-45 MPH with inland wind gusts of 30-35 MPH. This coupled with the heavy/wet snow will result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages.
3.) Advisory level snowfall is now expected over Northern Connecticut and Northeast and South-Central Massachusetts where just a 25-50 mile storm track difference could mean the difference in the current 3-5″ of snow, higher amounts of 5-10″ of snow or just 1-2″ of snow. Areas northwest of the current Winter Weather advisory will likely see a coating to 2″ of snow with some 3-4″ amounts in the south and east areas closest to the Winter Weather Advisory.
4.) Highest confidence in heaviest snowfall is over Southeast Massachusetts including south and east coastal Massachusetts, the lower Cape Cod area and South Coastal Rhode Island.
5.) With the current track guidance and a shift a bit further east in the guidance this increases the chances for heavier snow on lower and mid Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI resulting in an upgrade in snowfall total forecasts and impacts.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this storm system and we have arranged for Ops at NWS Taunton centered around the midnight to noon Monday timeframe with the major focus in the 4 AM-Noon timeframe for snowfall amounts and wet snow damage reports. This will be the last complete coordination message on this storm system. A shortened coordination message will be issued if a significant change to the storm situation or NWS Taunton Ops posture occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics.
NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #:(508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all..
..Morning/early to mid afternoon model runs showing more spread again with upcoming coastal storm but highest threat of heaviest snowfall is in Southeast Massachusetts including lower to mid Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard including south and east coastal areas of Massachusetts as well as Southern Rhode Island. How far northwest the heavy snowfall goes is the lowest confidence portion of the current forecast..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 10 PM Sunday Evening through 11 AM Monday Morning for all of Rhode Island and for Suffolk, Norfolk, Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for 5-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts. Wind gusts inland will be near 30 MPH with wind gusts at the coast in the 35-45 MPH range. These winds coupled with the heavy wet snow may result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. The lower snowfall amounts in the range are expected to occur up towards the Boston area and northern Norfolk County with higher amounts closer to the I-95 belt and points south and east..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island RI and Martha’s Vineyard from 10 PM Sunday Evening to 11 AM Monday Morning for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts to 10″ except the Outer Cape which may experience only 1-4″ of snow and wind gusts in the 40-45 MPH range. With a slightly more eastern track of the system, there is higher confidence of heavier snow in this area. If the higher snow amounts occur given the heavy wet nature of the snow, this may result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 10 PM Sunday Evening to 11 AM Sunday Morning for Essex, Central and Southeast Middlesex, and Southern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts and all of Northern Connecticut for 3-5″ of snow. The snow in this area may not be as heavy as other locations but a few isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages are possible from the weight of the heavy wet snow. In this area, this is where the lowest confidence in snowfall amounts are and this forecast/update reflects current model trends and thinking..
..Areas north and west of the current Winter Storm Watches and Winter Weather Advisory could see a coating to 2″ of snow with isolated 3-4″ amounts in the areas closest to the current Winter Weather Advisory area and a Special Weather Statement has been issued for these areas..
..The Winter Storm Watch for Nantucket has been canceled due to rain and sleet holding down snow amounts to 1-3″ of snow..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this storm system and we have arranged for Ops at NWS Taunton centered around the midnight to noon Monday timeframe with the major focus in the 4 AM-Noon timeframe for snowfall amounts and wet snow damage reports..
Unfortunately, model spread has widened in terms of the track of this coastal storm and the weather models have been struggling with this storm for the last several days. There are several reliable models pulling the storm track further east while other models keep the more northwest track that prompted the upgrades. The headlines of the current coordination message reflect the current thinking. Key updates and themes:
1.) Snow will start later and more towards late Sunday Evening across Southern New England mainly after the 9-10 PM timeframe. The snow will also end later and more towards the late morning/early afternoon hours especially in Eastern New England resulting in greater impact to the Monday Morning commute.
2.) Wind Gusts at the coast could still potentially reaching 40-45 MPH with inland wind gusts of 30-35 MPH. This coupled with the heavy/wet snow will result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages.
3.) Advisory level snowfall is now expected over Northern Connecticut and Northeast and South-Central Massachusetts where just a 25-50 mile storm track difference could mean the difference in the current 3-5″ of snow, higher amounts of 5-10″ of snow or just 1-2″ of snow. Areas northwest of the current Winter Weather advisory will likely see a coating to 2″ of snow with some 3-4″ amounts in the south and east areas closest to the Winter Weather Advisory.
4.) Highest confidence in heaviest snowfall is over Southeast Massachusetts including south and east coastal Massachusetts, the lower Cape Cod area and South Coastal Rhode Island.
5.) With the current track guidance and a shift a bit further east in the guidance this increases the chances for heavier snow on lower and mid Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI resulting in an upgrade in snowfall total forecasts and impacts.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this storm system and we have arranged for Ops at NWS Taunton centered around the midnight to noon Monday timeframe with the major focus in the 4 AM-Noon timeframe for snowfall amounts and wet snow damage reports. This will be the last complete coordination message on this storm system. A shortened coordination message will be issued if a significant change to the storm situation or NWS Taunton Ops posture occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics.
NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #:(508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box