Rob Macedo – Page 29

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Monday 7/18/22 Severe Weather Potential

July 18, 2022 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely across Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut and possible through Northeast Connecticut, Northwest Rhode Island and Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts along and northwest of the I-95 corridor Monday Afternoon and Evening with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats and an isolated tornado as a secondary threat.
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut in a slight risk of severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather from the I-95 corridor of Boston to Providence north and west through Central and Northeast Massachusetts and Northeast Connecticut..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening..

An area of showers and thunderstorms is moving through the region Monday Morning. The area is mostly showers across interior Southern New England with some strong thunderstorms across South Coasal Connecticut and over Long Island Sound. The activity over Long Island sound will be monitored for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm over Southeast New England but this area should largely be non-severe and should clear Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut between 12-2 PM and areas further east around or after 2 PM. After that area moves through, the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be likely in the Slight Risk for severe weather area and possible in the marginal risk for severe weather area for Monday Afternoon and evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Amount of heating and destabilization that can occur after the initial showers and thunderstorms move through the area. As of 1030 AM Monday Morning, satellite imagery is showing a lot of clouds but some thinning occurring in Central Pennsylvania and Central New York. This clearing if it becomes more widespread coupled with the very strong shear profiles would set the stage for strong to severe thunderstorm development later this afternoon into early evening. Also, given the strong wind shear, it will not take much heating given the high dewpoint air in the region to allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development particularly in the slight risk area. The key will be having at least some cloud breaks and the movement of the current rain area east of the slight and marginal risk areas by roughly the 12-2 PM time window and that the warm front gets far enough to the north to allow a good portion of the risk areas to be in the warm sector.
2.) The timing of the cold front and how far east the forcing gets to allow for thunderstorm and severe weather development.
3.) Heavy rainfall is expected. The rain will be beneficial but if its heavy enough and falls in a short enough period of time, it can result in urban and poor drainage flooding in susceptible areas.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and WPC Day-1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

WPC Day-1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday 7/18/22 Severe Weather/Flood Potential

July 18, 2022 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across portions of Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut Monday Afternoon and Evening with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats and an isolated tornado as a secondary threat. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut in a marginal risk of severe weather for Monday and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed much of Southern New England north and west of the I-95 corridor in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening..

An area of showers and thunderstorms will likely form and move into the region during Monday Morning. This area should be non-severe but will be monitored for any severe potential. After that area moves through, the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible for Monday Afternoon and evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Amount of heating and destabilization that can occur after the initial showers and thunderstorms move through the area presuming that forms as expected.
2.) The timing of the cold front and how far east the forcing gets to allow for thunderstorm and severe weather development.
3.) Heavy rainfall is expected. The rain will be beneficial but if its heavy enough and falls in a short enough period of time, it can result in urban and poor drainage flooding in susceptible areas.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 1230 PM Monday Afternoon. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2022/day2otlk_20220717_1730.html

WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2

Respectfully Submitted,

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Special Announcement: NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statements on Hurricane Preparedness Week – 7/11/22-7/15/22

July 16, 2022 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

This past week of Monday 7/11/22-Friday 7/15/22 was Hurricane Preparedness Week in Southern New England. NWS Boston/Norton issued a series of Public Information Statements for Hurricane Preparedness Week. Below is a link to those statements and the NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Preparednes page:

NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statements – Hurricane Preparedness:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/PNS_Hurricane_Preparedness_Week_7_11_22_7_15_22.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Preparedness Week in Southern New England Web Page:
https://www.weather.gov/box/hurricane_safety

We hope folks will take the time now to review hurricane and tropical system safety plans in case our region is impacted as we approach the peak months for impacts from tropical systems or their hybrid equivalents in the August through October timeframe.

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday Afternoon and Evening 7/14/22 Severe Weather Potential

July 14, 2022 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..After the most organized severe weather event so far in this quite summer season of severe weather on Tuesday 7/12/22, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island this Thursday mid-afternoon to early evening particularly along any seabreeze boundaries that form in and around the marginal risk area. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and localized heavy rainfall leading to brief urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Eastern Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather this Thursday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any isolated strong to severe thunderstorm potential for this Thursday Afternoon and Evening..

Tuesday 7/12/22 featured the most organized severe thunderstorm event in what has been a quiet summer season of severe weather for Southern New England. Any post storm damage reports, pictures and videos can be posted on our WX1BOX social media feeds, as a reply to this message or to the email address pics@nsradio.org. Below is the NWS Local Storm Report and Amateur Radio log from the Tuesday 7/12/22 severe weather event:

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Tuesday 7/12/22:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/lsr_7_12_22.pdf

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Complete log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/reports_7_12_22.pdf

For today, we are not expecting an organized severe weather event like Tuesday 7/12/22 but strong instability with some strong upper level winds aloft along with a trigger via seabreeze fronts/boundaries could allow for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island and SPC has upgraded much of Eastern Massachusetts to a marginal risk for severe weather. SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this potential for this Thursday Afternoon and Evening.

This will be the only coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2022/day1otlk_20220714_1630.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday Afternoon and Evening 7/12/22 Severe Weather Potential

July 12, 2022 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across interior Southern New England Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Timeframe would be any time between 3-10 PM Tuesday.
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has expanded the slight risk for severe weather area into Western and Central Massachusetts and into Northwest and North Central Connecticut from roughly Tyngsboro, through Worcester Massachusetts and Vernon, Connecticut west with a marginal risk for severe weather east of the Tyngsboro-Worcester-Vernon line to the Boston to Providence I-95 corridor of Eastern Massachusetts and Northwest Rhode Island..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening..

Heat and humidity will build into the region on Tuesday ahead of a cold front that will sweep through Southern New England Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking which expands the highest severe weather potential into portions of North-Central Connecticut and Central Massachusetts. Key factors for the severe weather potential Tuesday remain:

1.) Amount of heating and destabilization ahead of any late Tuesday morning/early afternoon convection that may impact parts of the region.
2.) Amount of moisture that returns after any morning convection. Models show drying in the atmosphere during the afternoon with some moisture return towards late Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. If this moisture return can occur not too far past the time of peak heating, it will increase the severe weather potential. If the moisture return is too late, severe weather potential will be reduced with most thunderstorms being non-severe in nature later Tuesday Evening.
3.) Amount of forcing with the front and how quickly it moves in for the front to tap into sufficient wind shear profiles and expected moderate instability levels.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday Afternoon and Evening 7/12/22 Severe Weather Potential

July 11, 2022 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across interior Southern New England Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Timeframe would be any time between 3-10 PM Tuesday.
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut from roughly the Connecticut River Valley west into Eastern New York in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather from east of the Connecticut River Valley to the I-95 corridor of Northwest Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening..

1.) Amount of heating and destabilization ahead of any overnight or Tuesday morning convection that may impact parts of the region.
2.) Amount of moisture that returns after any morning convection. Models show drying in the atmosphere during the afternoon with some moisture return towards late Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. If this moisture return can occur not too far past the time of peak heating, it will increase the severe weather potential. If the moisture return is too late, severe weather potential will be reduced with most thunderstorms being non-severe in nature later Tuesday Evening.
3.) Amount of forcing with the front and how quickly it moves in for the front to tap into sufficient wind shear profiles and expected moderate instability levels.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2022/day2otlk_20220711_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Saturday Afternoon & Evening 7/2/22 Severe Weather Potential

July 2, 2022 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to potential urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued much of Southern New England in a Slight Risk for severe weather except for Southeast Coastal Massachusetts and Newport County Rhode Island which are under a marginal risk for severe weather for Saturday. Timeframe is between 2-8 PM give or take 1-2 hours..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening to monitor this severe weather potential..

Overnight, clusters of strong and a couple isolated severe thunderstorms occurred in the region overnight and were still ongoing in Southeast New England with an area of showers across Southeast New York, Northern Connecticut and into Northwest and North-Central Massachusetts. This area will move through during the late morning and early afternoon hours and behind it will be some clearing and destabilization that will set the stage for a potentially active severe weather day that remains likely on Saturday Afternoon and Evening with the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in clusters or line segments to affected much of Southern New England Saturday Afternoon and Evening. There has been little change to the ongoing forecast based on the current model runs.

As is the case with strong to severe thunderstorms, not every location, city or town will see this activity but isolated to scattered pockets of strong to severe thunderstorms will affect the region as a cold front brings an end to intense heat and humidity to the region. Conditions will dry out late Saturday Night into Sunday Morning from northwest to southeast allowing for nice summer weather for July 4th long weekend activities from Sunday Afternoon through Monday Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors remain:

1.) There continues to be some shower and thunderstorm activity this Saturday Morning which should clear out from the area in the late morning and early afternoon hours per radar and satellite imagery. The amount of clearing to allow for more intense destabilization after this activity moves through will be a key factor in determining the extent of strong to severe thunderstorms during the time of peak heating Saturday Afternoon and Evening.
2.) If there is strong clearing with the favorable wind shear profiles in place, this could allow for more a potent severe weather event across the region and this will be monitored.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening to monitor this severe weather potential. This will be the last coordination message as we shift further into operations mode as we have been active during the overnight and early morning period. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Saturday Afternoon & Evening 7/2/22 Severe Weather Potential

July 2, 2022 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to potential urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued much of Southern New England in a Slight Risk for severe weather except for Southeast Coastal Massachusetts and Newport County Rhode Island which are under a marginal risk for severe weather for Saturday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening to monitor this severe weather potential..

A potentially active severe weather day remains likely on Saturday Afternoon and Evening with the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in clusters or line segments to affected much of Southern New England Saturday Afternoon and Evening. There has been little change to the ongoing forecast based on the current model runs.

1.) There will be some shower and thunderstorm activity (most likely non-severe) late Friday Night through early Saturday Morning. The amount of clearing to allow for more intense destabilization after this activity moves through will be a key factor in determining the extent of strong to severe thunderstorms during the time of peak heating Saturday Afternoon and Evening.
2.) If there is strong clearing with the favorable wind shear profiles in place, this could allow for more a potent severe weather event across the region and this will be monitored.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening to monitor this severe weather potential. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Saturday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2022/day2otlk_20220701_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday Afternoon & Evening 7/2/22 Severe Weather Potential

July 1, 2022 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to potential urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a Slight Risk for severe weather except for Southeast Coastal Massachusetts and Newport County Rhode Island which are under a marginal risk for severe weather for Saturday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening to monitor this severe weather potential..

A potentially active severe weather day is likely on Saturday Afternoon and Evening with the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in clusters or line segments to affected much of Southern New England Saturday Afternoon and Evening. As is the case with strong to severe thunderstorms, not every location, city or town will see this activity but isolated to scattered pockets of strong to severe thunderstorms will affect the region as a cold front brings an end to intense heat and humidity to the region. Conditions will dry out late Saturday Night into Sunday Morning from northwest and Southeast allowing for nice summer weather for July 4th long weekend activities from Sunday Afternoon through Monday Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) There will be some shower and thunderstorm activity (most likely non-severe) late Friday Night and early Saturday Morning. The amount of clearing to allow for more intense destabilization after this activity moves through will be a key factor in determining the extent of strong to severe thunderstorms during the time of peak heating Saturday Afternoon and Evening.
2.) If there is strong clearing with the favorable wind shear profiles in place, this could allow for more a potent severe weather event across the region and this will be monitored.
3.) There will also be the possibility for some isolated thunderstorms Friday Afternoon and early evening but are expected to be typical non-severe thunderstorms though this will also be monitored.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening to monitor this severe weather potential. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Saturday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday Afternoon & Evening 6/29/22 Severe Weather Potential

June 29, 2022 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday Afternoon and Evening across Western Massachusetts between 4-10 PM today. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to brief urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western Massachusetts and points north into Northern New York and Northern New England..
..Key factors in any severe weather potential for Western Massachusetts will be amount of moisture and instability that develops in the area and how far south any thunderstorm activity develops and if it gets into Western Massachusetts or stays north of this area..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Western Massachusetts late Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the only coordination message on this severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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