Storm Coordination Message #3 – Monday Evening 3/13/23-Wednesday Morning 3/15/23 Long Duration Multi-Hazard Coastal Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Significant Coastal Storm Likely for Southern New England Monday Evening through Wednesday Morning. This will be a multi-hazard long duration event with Heavy Snow, heavy rain, strong to damaging winds, wet snow load and strong winds causing potential damage and the potential for several cycles of at least minor coastal flooding. Exact placement of impacts and potential hazards will be affected by as little as a 25-50 mile storm track difference and models remain variable in the track position. This is an updated initial set of thinking that will likely change as we get closer to the storm event..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 8 PM Monday Evening through 8 AM Wednesday Morning for Franklin, Western Hampden, Western Hampshire, Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 12-18″ of snow with isolated higher amounts to 20″, highest amounts in higher elevations but all elevations will fall into the 12-18″ range and wind gusts to 55 MPH. The snow is expected to be heavy and wet and with the strong wind gusts scattered to numerous pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages are likely in this area..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Monday Evening through Wednesday Morning for Tolland and Windham Counties of Connecticut, Central Middlesex, Western Essex, Southern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County Rhode Island for 5-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts. The snow will be heavy and wet and with the potential for wind gusts to 55 MPH, this could lead to scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages in this area..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Monday Evening through Wednesday Morning for Hartford County Connecticut, Eastern Hampshire and Eastern Hampden Counties of Massachusetts for 6-12″ of snow with isolated higher amounts in the hills and 4-7″ of snow with isolated higher amounts in valley locations. The snow will be heavy and wet and with the potential for wind gusts to 55 MPH, this could lead to at least scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages in this area..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect Eastern Essex, Norfolk, Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk, Northern Bristol Counties of Massachusetts, Southeast Providence, Kent and Bristol Counties of Rhode Island for 4-8″ of snow and wind gusts 55-60 MPH with isolated higher gusts. The snow will be heavy and wet and with the potential for wind gusts to 55-60 MPH, this could lead to at least scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages in this area..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect from Tuesday Morning through Wednesday Morning for Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, Eastern Essex, Eastern Plymouth and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts possible. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages..
..Additional Winter Weather, Wind and Coastal flood headlines are possible in future updates. Additional adjustments to the snowfall forecast are also likely as models continue to coalesce on the storm track and a subtle shift in track can have huge changes to the impacts in the region..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely. Exact schedule is to be determined. They could start as early as Monday Evening but are most likely to run all day from early Tuesday Morning through late Tuesday Evening with a couple wrap up nets possible Wednesday Morning. An initial schedule will likely be posted in the Monday Morning Coordination message. ARES/RACES groups should closely monitor the progress of this system. Pictures and videos of storm damage can be sent as a reply to this message, via the WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..

A significant coastal storm is likely for Southern New England and it has the potential to be a multi-hazard and long duration event. The headlines depict the current thinking though there remains some disparity in the model guidance and small track guidance differences will have huge impacts on hazards. This is especially becoming true now in Southeast Massachusetts and Southern Rhode Island where some models indicate much greater snow than currently forecast while others maintain much lighter amounts. Winter Storm Watches were expanded down to the Coventry RI to Bristol RI to Taunton Mass corridor in this update and Winter Storm Warnings were posted for the east slopes of the Berkshires through Franklin, Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts where the heaviest snow is currently expected. Key factors remain:
1.) A subtle shift as small as 25-50 miles will have huge impacts to the hazards over the area. With a closer to the coast track meaning heavy wet snow confined to more of the higher elevations of Western and Northern Massachusetts while a slightly further offshore track would bring the heavy wet snow to lower elevations and potentially even a period of wet snow for some coastal areas of Southern New England. The model trends have remained with a more eastward path but there remains disparity in some of the model guidance. Winter Storm Watches were expanded down to the Coventry RI to Bristol RI to Taunton Mass corridor in this update and Winter Storm Warnings were posted for the east slopes of the Berkshires through Franklin, Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts where the heaviest snow is currently expected based on the current weather model suite.
2.) Strong to damaging winds are likely across coastal areas with strong wind gusts inland and in the higher terrain. This aspect bears watching for infrastructure damage at the coast as well as inland and interior higher terrain locations where heavy wet snow clinging to trees and power lines with the strong winds are likely to cause scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages with a more widespread infrastructure event not out of the question. High Wind Watches have been expanded to include areas such as Boston and Blue Hill in addition to Cape Ann, Eastern Plymouth County and Cape Cod and additional wind headlines will likely be posted for other areas.
3.) While astronomical tides are low, the fact the coastal storm will stall near or over the Southern New England coast could cause multiple tide cycles of minor coastal flooding with isolated pockets of moderate coastal flooding possible particularly due to wave action which will build over the tide cycles. This will continue to bear watching as we get closer to the storm event.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely. Exact schedule is to be determined. They could start as early as Monday Evening but are most likely to run all day from early Tuesday Morning through late Tuesday Evening with a couple wrap up nets possible Wednesday Morning. An initial schedule will likely be posted in the Monday Morning Coordination message. ARES/RACES groups should closely monitor the progress of this system. Pictures and videos of storm damage can be sent as a reply to this message, via the WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Another coordination message will be posted by 1100 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement, Snowfall Maps/Infographics, High Wind Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement and Snow Maps/Infographics:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Hazards_Infographics_3_13_3_15_23.png

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch Statement & Infographics:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Hazards_Infographics_3_13_3_15_23.png

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
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