Storm Coordination Message #1 – Monday Evening 3/13/23-Wednesday Morning 3/15/23 Long Duration Multi-Hazard Coastal Storm Potential
Hello to all…
..Significant Coastal Storm Likely for Southern New England Monday Evening through Wednesday Morning. This will be a multi-hazard long duration event with Heavy Snow, heavy rain, strong to damaging winds, wet snow load and strong winds causing potential damage and the potential for several cycles of at least minor coastal flooding. Exact placement of impacts and potential hazards will be affected by as little as a 25-50 mile storm track difference and models remain variable in the track position. This is an initial set of thinking that will likely change as we get closer to the storm event..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Monday Evening through Wednesday Morning for Franklin, Western Hampden, Western Hampshire, Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 6-12″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and wind gusts to 50 MPH. The snow is expected to be heavy and wet and with the strong wind gusts isolated to scattered pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages are possible to likely in this area..
..Additional Winter Weather, Wind and Coastal flood headlines are possible in future updates. Adjustments to the snowfall forecast are also likely as models have yet to coalesce on the storm track and a subtle shift in track can have huge changes to the impacts in the region..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely. Exact schedule is to be determined. They could start as early as Monday Evening but are most likely to run all day from early Tuesday Morning through late Tuesday Evening with a couple wrap up nets possible Wednesday Morning. ARES/RACES groups should closely monitor the progress of this system..
A significant coastal storm is likely for Southern New England and it has the potential to be a multi-hazard and long duration event. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) A subtle shift as small as 25-50 miles will have huge impacts to the hazards over the area. With a closer to the coast track meaning heavy wet snow confined to more of the higher elevations of Western and Northern Massachusetts while a slightly further offshore track would bring the heavy wet snow to lower elevations and potentially even a period of wet snow for some coastal areas of Southern New England.
2.) Strong to damaging winds are likely across coastal areas with strong wind gusts inland and in the higher terrain. This aspect bears watching for infrastructure damage at the coast as well as inland and interior higher terrain locations where heavy wet snow clinging to trees and power lines with the strong winds are likely to cause at least isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages with a more widespread infrastructure event not out of the question.
3.) While astronomical tides are low, the fact the coastal storm will stall near or over the Southern New England coast could cause multiple tide cycles of minor coastal flooding with isolated pockets of moderate coastal flooding possible particularly due to wave action which will build over the tide cycles. This will bear watching as we get closer to the storm event.
SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely. Exact schedule is to be determined. They could start as early as Monday Evening but are most likely to run all day from early Tuesday Morning through late Tuesday Evening with a couple wrap up nets possible Wednesday Morning. ARES/RACES groups should closely monitor the progress of this system. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 AM Sunday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Snowfall Maps/Infographics, Area Forecast Discussion and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch Statement and Snow Maps/Infographics:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: email@example.com
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