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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday August 10th 2014 – Severe Weather Potential

August 10, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..An Isolated Strong or Severe Thunderstorm cannot be ruled out over Southern New Hampshire and the Merrimack River Valley area of Massachusetts into Essex County Massachusetts late this Sunday Afternoon and early Evening. The Primary risk for any Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms should remain further north in the NWS Gray Maine Coverage Area today but it is possible that some of this activity could reach the northeast parts of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area. Strong winds, hail and heavy downpours would be the primary threats..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the threat for later Sunday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the only coordination message on today’s isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorm threat unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook covering today’s potential..

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday August 7th 2014 – Severe Weather Potential

August 7, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Scattered Strong Thunderstorms with Isolated severe thunderstorms likely across much of Southern New England today. Strong Winds and small hail likely with isolated damaging winds and large hail possible as well. Urban and Poor drainage flooding to flash flooding is also a threat..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 11 AM today and last through early evening..

While conditions won’t be quite as warm and humid as Wednesday, there will be heating through the day and there will be a pool of very cold temperatures aloft. This temperature difference will create sufficient instability coupled with sufficient wind shear profiles for scattered strong thunderstorms with isolated severe thunderstorms today. Strong winds and small hail are likely with hail in thunderstorms quite likely because of very low freezing level in the atmosphere due to the cold temperatures aloft. Isolated damaging winds and large hail are possible along with urban and poor drainage flooding also possible in areas that receive the thunderstorms. Much of Southern New England could see the scattered strong to isolated severe thunderstorm threat but Eastern New England is expected to be a bit more favorable. The threat will begin around midday lasting through early evening.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 11 AM today and last through early evening. This will be the only coordination message on today’s severe weather threat. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday August 6th 2014 – Severe Weather Potential

August 6, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely late Wednesday Morning through Wednesday Evening across much of Southern New England with the greatest risk in Southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Strong to Damaging Winds, Hail and urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the primary threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting late Wednesday Morning through Wednesday Evening..

An impulse in the atmosphere will move into the region today with sufficient heating to cause destabilization in the atmosphere with favorable wind shear profiles for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding as the main threats. While there could be thunderstorms across different portions of Southern New England, the greatest risk area for Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms is over Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts where this impulse interacts with seabreeze boundaries. Strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the primary threats.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting late Wednesday Morning through Wednesday Evening. This will be the last complete coordination message on the Wednesday severe weather threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued as time allows and the exact timeframe of Ops at NWS Taunton is determined. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday August 6th 2014 – Severe Weather Potential

August 6, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..An Isolated Strong Thunderstorm is possible this evening in Southern New England. Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely late Wednesday Morning through Wednesday Evening across much of Southern New England. Strong to Damaging Winds, Hail and urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the primary threats..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any strong thunderstorm activity for this evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting late Wednesday Morning through Wednesday Evening. A more complete coordination message will be sent by 7 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather/Flash Flood Coordination Message #1 – Monday August 4th 2014 – Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential

August 4, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Severe Weather Potential is low due to weak wind fields but isolated slow moving strong thunderstorms may cause a risk for urban/poor drainage flooding to flash flooding across localized locations of Southern New England later this Monday afternoon and early evening before the loss of daytime heating weakens any storm activity. At this time, we will likely handle any of these thunderstorms with SKYWARN Self-Activation. This will be the only coordination message on this event unless an upgrade to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday July 31st 2014 Severe Weather Potential

July 31, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely today especially in Southwest New Hampshire and Northwest Massachusetts but could extend as far south and east as the I-95 corridor. Strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Southwest New Hampshire and Northwest Massachusetts in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather with a 5% probability of severe weather further south in Southern New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely today..

A trough will approach the region from the north and west today. While the best forcing and strongest part of the trough will be in Northern New England and while temperatures and humidity values won’t be particularly high, temperatures in the upper level of the atmosphere will be quite cold and the trough’s southern extent should provide a trigger mechanism. This temperature difference aloft versus the surface will create instability with quite favorable wind shear profiles with that trough as a trigger mechanism. This should set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms today particularly in Northwest Massachusetts and Southwest New Hampshire but could extend further south and east possibly to the I-95 corridor. Strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Southwest New Hampshire and Northwest Massachusetts in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather with a 5% probability of severe weather further south in Southern New England.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely today. This will be the only complete coordination message on today’s threat A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Post Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday July 28th 2014 Severe Weather/Flash Flood Event and Recap of Sunday 7/27/14 Severe Weather

July 29, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..EF-2 Tornado occurs in Revere, Massachusetts causing significant damage in the center of town. Other pockets of straight-line wind damage and flash flooding occur in other parts of Southern New England on Monday rounding out a busy two day stretch of severe weather in the region..
..Additional damage and flood reports and photos can be sent as a reply to this message or to pics@nsradio.org and credit will be given to the spotter for use of the pictures/reports..
..Quiet weather expected for the next few days..

A supercell storm organized over Northern Norfolk County Massachusetts and raced through portions of Northeast Massachusetts Monday Morning. The storm caused wind damage in parts of Needham, Massachusetts. KB1TJI-Jeff Marden checked out damage in the Moseley Avenue area of Needham Massachusetts. This storm would continue to organize briefly obtaining a tornadic signature in the eastern end of Chelsea and in particular Revere, Massachusetts. The storm was tracked using the SKYWARN self-activation protocol. Within 15-20 minutes of the storm passage, the Amateur Radio SKYWARN Network detected reports of many trees an wires down and structural damage in Revere. Shortly afterwards, Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters, KB1KQW-Jim Palmer and KB1NCG-Marek Kozubal working with NWS Taunton Warning Coordination Meteorologist, Glenn Field-KB1GHX, arrived in Revere and with support of Revere Police and Fire and the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency, the survey was conducted resulting in many of the pictures seen on the WX1BOX Facebook Page.

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Operations were activated within an hour of the start of the survey and coordination was done with the survey team via Amateur Radio. In addition to this effort, N1EVH-Mike Nasleroad was able to get into the area providing additional pictures, reports and data from Revere and also checked out confirmed damage reports in Lynn which were less significant and seemed more like straightline wind at that point in time. Also, SKYWARN Spotter Nick Mollo, who was a friend in Revere, provided additional pictures. The Topsfield DPW, a follower on the WX1BOX Twitter Account, provided pictures and damage reports from the Topsfield area augmented with additional pictures from KC1AEI-Matt Knowles from North Shore SKYWARN.

While this tornado occurred, significant flash flooding affected the Boston Metro West Region Monday Morning. A number of pictures were provided of the flash flooding. Rainfall of 2.5-3.5″ in less than an hour caused this significant flash flooding in the Metro West region.

As we got into Monday Afternoon and Evening, another round of severe weather occurred affecting Northwest and North-Central Massachusetts through Southern New Hampshire with additional severe thunderstorms across North-Central Connecticut. These severe thunderstorms caused pockets of flash flooding and straight-line wind damage. Particularly hard hit were parts of Westford, Littleton and South Chelmsford as well as parts of Enfield and Somers, Connecticut. A Tornado Warning was issued for parts of Eastern Hampden and Southwest Worcester County Massachusetts but only pockets of straightline wind damage were noted. WX1BOX Amateur Radio Operations were active during this timeframe. Pictures of flash flooding and damage from the region can be seen via the following links:

WX1BOX EF1/EF2 Revere Tornado Facebook Photo Album:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.819777764722910.1073741841.216287391738620&type=1

WX1BOX Needham MA Severe Thunderstorm Damage Photo Album:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.819965604704126.1073741842.216287391738620&type=1

WX1BOX Metro West MA Flash Flood Photo Album:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.820001504700536.1073741843.216287391738620&type=1

WX1BOX Topsfield MA Severe Thunderstorm Damage Photo Album:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.820014011365952.1073741844.216287391738620&type=1

The NWS Taunton Local Storm Report on Monday’s Severe Weather Event and the Public Information Statement on the EF1/EF2 Revere Massachusetts Tornado can be seen via the following links:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report – Monday July 28th 2014:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1407290936.nwus51.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – Revere Massachusetts Tornado – Monday July 28th 2014:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1407282110.nous41.html

The events on Monday were after an 8 hour severe weather episode in parts of Western and Central New England on Sunday. On Sunday, a warm front made its way through Southern New England Sunday Morning into early afternoon bringing with it strong to isolated severe thunderstorms. This included a funnel cloud and minor wind damage in Springfield, MA with flooding reports and house fires from lightning in Central Massachusetts. After the warm front passed, sufficient clearing and destabilization with an impulse moving through the area resulted in another round of scattered severe thunderstorms impacting portions of Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut between 430 and 800 PM. SKYWARN Self-Activation handled the storm activity today across the region. Hardest hit areas were in the second round of storms over West Springfield, Agawam, Longmeadow and then extending into Enfield, Somers and Tolland Connecticut with pockets of wind damage reaching the Storrs/Mansfield, CT area. Any additional damage reports or pictures can be shared as a reply to this email or to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the photos posted. Below is the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report and WX1BOX Facebook Page of pictures collected so far:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report – Sunday July 27th, 2014:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1407280131.nwus51.html

WX1BOX Facebook Page Photo Album – Sunday July 27th 2014:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.819321338101886.1073741840.216287391738620&type=1

We wish to thank all Amateur Radio and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters, local Police and Fire departments and the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency for their help and support during this active 2 days of severe weather in our region. All of us working together makes a significant difference for our local communities by providing accurate ground truth information for better warnings and forecasts and to tell the public what is actually happening on the ground.

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Monday 7/28/14 Severe Weather Potential

July 28, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms occurred particularly in Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut Sunday afternoon through early evening. The event was handled via SKYWARN Self-Activation mode from approximately 11 AM-8 PM Sunday..
..An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is possible Monday Morning. As we move into Monday Afternoon and Evening, another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across interior Southern New England, particularly Southern New Hampshire, interior Massachusetts and interior Connecticut and possibly Northern Rhode Island. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has maintained a 5% severe weather probability for this region..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence between noon-1 PM on Monday..

A warm front made its way through Southern New England Sunday Morning into early afternoon bringing with it strong to isolated severe thunderstorms. This included a funnel cloud and minor wind damage in Springfield, MA with flooding reports and house fires from lightning in Central Massachusetts. After the warm front passed, sufficient clearing and destabilization with an impulse moving through the area resulted in another round of scattered severe thunderstorms impacting portions of Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut between 430 and 800 PM. SKYWARN Self-Activation handled the storm activity today across the region. Hardest hit areas were in the second round of storms over West Springfield, Agawam, Longmeadow and then extending into Enfield, Somers and Tolland Connecticut with pockets of wind damage reaching the Storrs/Mansfield, CT area. Any additional damage reports or pictures can be shared as a reply to this email or to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the photos posted. Below is the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report and WX1BOX Facebook Page of pictures collected so far:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1407280131.nwus51.html

WX1BOX Facebook Page Photos:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.819321338101886.1073741840.216287391738620&type=1

As look at today’s severe weather potential, there is a round of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms ongoing with one warning issued for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm over Northeast Franklin and Southwest Cheshire County New Hampshire as of 725 AM. This should move out of the area with the possibility of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms scraping Southeast New England from a second area offshore. In between these two areas, the key item on severe thunderstorm coverage will be amount of clearing that takes place. If there is sufficient clearing and heating, that will set the stage for potential clearing and heating for another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in interior Southern New England particularly in southern New Hampshire, interior Massachusetts, interior Connecticut and possibly Northern Rhode Island. Strong to damaging winds, hail, and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The threat timeframe is after noon on Monday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence between noon-1 PM on Monday. This will be the last coordination message on today’s threat. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Monday 7/28/14 Severe Weather Potential

July 28, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms occurred particularly in Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut this afternoon through early evening. The event was handled via SKYWARN Self-Activation mode from approximately 11 AM-8 PM today..
..Heavy Rainfall and embedded thunder are possible Monday Morning. As we move into Monday Afternoon and Evening, another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across interior Southern New England, particularly Southern New Hampshire, Central and Northeast Massachusetts. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has maintained a 5% severe weather probability for this region..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely around or after noon on Monday..

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1407280131.nwus51.html

WX1BOX Facebook Page Photos:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.819321338101886.1073741840.216287391738620&type=1

As we move into Monday, there could be a round of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms ongoing in the morning with a risk of an isolated strong thunderstorm. This should move out of the area and then set the stage for potential clearing and heating for another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in interior Southern New England particularly in southeast New Hampshire, and Central and Northeast Massachusetts. Strong to damaging winds, hail, and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The threat timeframe is after noon on Monday as it stands now.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely around or after Noon on Monday. Another coordination message will be issued by 800 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday 7/24/14-Monday 7/25/14 Severe Weather Potential

July 27, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Several rounds of Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible Sunday into Monday across much of Southern New England. Exact timing of severe weather potential and rounds of potential isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms and areas impacted is still uncertain. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has all of Southern New England in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather Sunday and has placed Eastern New England in a 5% risk for severe weather Monday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Sunday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Sunday Afternoon and Evening and again on Monday..

A warm front will make its way through Southern New England early Sunday morning. This warm front may bring a round of strong to possibly isolated severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. After the activity Sunday Morning, another round of severe weather is possible later Sunday Afternoon and Evening but will be contingent on the following factors:

1.) Amount of clearing that occurs in the wake of any activity Sunday Morning.
2.) Locations of impulses to trigger the atmosphere presuming sufficient clearing and destabilization can occur.
3.) Activity over the mid-Atlantic and its impact on ability for strong to severe thunderstorms to form over Central and Eastern New York and Pennsylvania and traverse into Southern New England.

Wind shear profiles for Sunday will be quite favorable. If instability develops and an impulse is timed with sufficient instability and favorable wind shear values then at minimum, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will occur and there is the potential for a more widespread event. Strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats but an isolated tornado is also possible. That being said, if the instability doesn’t develop or the timing of impulses is past max instability, the threat will be more limited.

Another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in Eastern New England on Monday. This will largely depend on convection Sunday and the position of impulses and the cold front through the region. This will be detailed in future coordination messages.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Sunday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Sunday Afternoon and Evening and again on Monday. Another coordination message will be issued by 1100 AM Sunday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 and Day-3 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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