Hello to all..
..Strong Coastal Storm/Nor’easter system will take aim on Southern New England Thursday Morning through Friday Morning with the potential for Heavy Snowfall for Western and Central New England, a Wintry Mix for portions of Eastern New England and Heavy Rainfall in Southeast New England. Strong to Damaging Winds likely particularly along the coast..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM Friday for Southern New Hampshire, Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Worcester and Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 6-12″ of snow across Northern Connecticut through South-Central and Interior Northeast Massachusetts where sleet and freezing rain will mix in with ice accumulations of a tenth to quarter inch possible and 12-16″ of snow with isolated higher amounts of up to 18″ across Southern New Hampshire, and Northwest and North-Central Massachusetts where precipitation is expected to remain mostly or all snow. Winds may gust to 35-40 MPH in this area. In portions of the Winter Storm Warning, the winds and the consistency of the snow and any ice accumulation could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 7 AM Thursday Morning through 7 AM Friday Morning for Northwest Providence, Western Kent and Washington Counties of Rhode Island and Western Essex and Western Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts for 4-10″ of snow before a changeover to sleet, freezing rain and then plain rain. The rain may change back to snow before ending during Friday Morning. Winds may gust to 35-40 MPH in this area. In portions of the Winter Storm Warning, the winds and the consistency of the snow and any ice accumulation could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 7 AM Thursday Morning to 7 AM Friday Morning for Southeast Providence,Eastern Kent, Bristol and Newport Counties of Rhode Island, Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for 3-6″ of snow before a changeover to sleet freezing rain and then plain rain. The rain may change back to snow before ending during Friday Morning..
..Cape Cod and the Islands is currently expected to receive mostly rain from this system at the present time after and inch or two of wet snow..
..A Wind Advisory is in effect from 11 AM-7 PM Thursday for South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 15-35 MPH with gusts to 45-55 MPH. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 2 PM-Midnight for Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, Eastern Plymouth and Southeast Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50-55 MPH. These winds coupled with any wet snow and ice accumulation may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage causing isolated power outages..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 8 AM Thursday lasting through late evening and possibly activating again Friday Morning depending on the extent of the storm system through Thursday Night and Friday Morning..
..Any damage or significant snow pictures can be posted as a reply to this email, can be posted to the pics@nsradio.org email address or posted to our Facebook and Twitter page feeds with credit given to the spotter for the photos unless otherwise indicated..
A storm system in the south-central and Southeast United States is on track and will continue to organize and make its way northeast and track towards Southern New England. The storm will likely bring significant snow accumulations to much of Southern New England with the potential for heavy rainfall in Southeast parts of the region and the threat of strong to damaging winds particularly at the coast. The storm track has wobbled slightly west then slightly east causing slight adjustments to the rain/snow line and pushing it a bit further east and those adjustments have been made in the current forecast. Model trends have kept with a stronger storm system and this could have an impact on the strength of the winds and models have kept with heavier precipitation as well so this will need to be monitored closely. Also, the storm is still expected to have a bit of duration to it with two maximas of heavy precipitation, one during mid-late Thursday Morning through mid-afternoon and then again later Thursday Evening into Friday Morning as the storm intensifies. The winds will also increase as we get into late Thursday Morning through late Thursday Evening.
The headlines of the coordination message detail the current thinking with updates based on the last model runs. Winter Storm Watches for portions of Western Rhode Island, Western Norfolk and Western Essex Counties of Massachusetts are converted to Winter Storm Warnings. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the rest of Rhode Island as well as East Coastal and Southeast Massachusetts west of the Cape Cod Canal for 3-6″ of snow before a changeover to sleet, freezing rain and then plain rain which could be heavy at times. The rain could change back to snow before ending as the storm departs the region. Over Cape Cod and the Islands, a quick 1-2″ of snow will occur before a changeover to plain rain, heavy at times. In areas of heavy rainfall, urban and poor drainage flooding may be possible.
The snow continues to have the potential to be heavy and wet and there will be areas where the precipitation will mix with sleet and freezing rain causing ice accumulations and there will be some strong winds in the interior as well gusting to 35-40 MPH. This may lead to isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. It is always difficult to determine if a more significant damage impact can occur as this will ultimately depend on the consistency of the wet snow and any ice accumulation and the extent of the winds on the trees and wires and will bear close watching.
A Wind Advisory is in effect from 11 AM-7 PM Thursday for South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 15-35 MPH with gusts to 45-55 MPH. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 2 PM-Midnight for Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, Eastern Plymouth and Southeast Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50-55 MPH. These winds along with any wet snow and ice accumulation may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. There is also the possibility for even stronger winds at the coast which will be monitored closely throughout the storm event.
There is also the possibility of minor coastal flooding at the time of the Thursday Evening high tide along East Coastal Massachusetts. At this time, the coastal flood threat still does not look as extensive as the early January 2014 blizzard.
The rain/snow line for this storm remains one of the most difficult parts of the forecast. It will likely be subject to the most revision for this storm event. Secondarily, the wind damage threat at the coast and the potential wind/wet snow damage threat inland will be aspects that will need to be monitored and revised depending on the track, speed and intensity of the storm. Current trends remain for a stronger storm that tracks to near Cape Cod or Nantucket.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 800 AM Thursday Morning lasting into early Friday Morning. Any damage or significant snow pictures can be posted as a reply to this email, can be posted to the pics@nsradio.org email address or posted to our Facebook and Twitter page feeds with credit given to the spotter for the photos unless otherwise indicated. This will most likely be the last coordination message on this storm event as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Snowfall Map for the storm:
NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
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