Hello to all..

..Strong Nor’easter will affect the region Wednesday into Thursday Morning with strong to damaging winds, minor to locally moderate coastal flooding, heavy rainfall and even some light snowfall in some locations..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 6 AM Wednesday to 4 AM Thursday Morning for Cape Cod and the Islands with a High Wind Warning in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island including Block Island and South Coastal Massachusetts from 2 PM Wednesday to 4 AM Thursday..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect for Windham County Connecticut, the remainder of Rhode Island and Eastern Norfolk, Northern Bristol, Plymouth, Suffolk and Southeast Middlesex Counties of Masachusetts from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM Thursday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely some time later Wednesday Morning through early Thursday Morning..

A strong nor’easter/coastal storm is organizing and will impact the region on Wednesday and will last into Thursday Afternoon. Despite the close time range, weather models are a little more divergent than normal at this time range on the impacts of this system. An update on the impacts are outlined in this coordination message by section:

Strong to Damaging Wind Threat:
Computer models continue to show a strong wind field with this system. There is some question as to how much of the winds will mix down to the surface and it currently appears that South Coastal locations will experience the strongest winds followed by East Coastal Massachusetts, portion of interior Southeast Massachusetts, Rhode Island and NortheasT Connecticut. A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 6 AM Wednesday to 4 AM Thursday Morning for Cape Cod and the Islands with a High Wind Warning in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island including Block Island and South Coastal Massachusetts from 2 PM Wednesday to 4 AM Thursday. In the High Wind Warning area sustained winds of 25-40 MPH with gusts up to 60 MPH are likely. This will bring down scattered trees and wires resulting in scattered power outages. A Wind Advisory is now in effect for Windham County Connecticut, the remainder of Rhode Island and Eastern Norfolk, Northern Bristol, Plymouth, Suffolk and Southeast Middlesex Counties of Masachusetts from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM Thursday for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH likely. These winds will bring down isolated to scattered trees and wires resulting in isolated to scattered power outages.

Rainfall:
Heavy rainfall of 1-3″ remains possible. The axis of heaviest rainfall will depend on the track of the system but current model trends indicate that portions of Eastern Masachusetts and Rhode Island, particularly southeastern locations could potentially have the heaviest rainfall. This could result in urban and poor drainage flooding. Currently, the threat for river/stream flooding is low.

Wet Snowfall Potential:
The potential for light accumulations of wet snow has changed since the last update. There is potential for some light wet snow accumulations across much of Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut particularly overnight Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning. Preciptation totals will be less in the extreme western locations but will be a bit heavier in the central interior. Overall, snow totals are expected to be as little as a coating to possibly as much as 2-3 inches of wet snow. If enough wet snow accumulates with the system or more wet snow occurs than currently expected, this could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered power outages. This will be monitored closely and snowfall total ranges will be fine tuned with the next coordination message update.

Coastal Flooding:
Minor coastal flooding will be possible at the time of high tide across East Coastal Massachusetts for the Thursday Morning high tide with the possibility of pockets of moderate coastal flooding. The only notable change here is that confidence has increased that east coastal locations will be the areas primarly impacted by coastal flooding. This will continue to be monitored in future computer model runs.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely by late Wednesday Wednesday lasting through early Thursday Morning. Another coordination message will be posted by 830 AM Wednesday. Below is the NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Strong Nor’easter to bring heavy rainfall, strong to damaging winds, and minor coastal flooding to much of Southern New England and there is even the threat of wet snowfall to portions of the far interior of Southern New England Wednesday into Thursday Afternoon..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect for all of Rhode Island, Essex, Suffolk, Southeast Middlesex, Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket counties of Massachusetts from Wednesday Morning through late Wednesday Night for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH possible..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Wednesday possibly extending into Thursday Morning..

A strong nor’easter/coastal storm will start to organize on Tuesday and begin impacting the region on Wednesday and will last into Thursday Afternoon. There are several impacts that will be outlined in this coordination message and updated going forward:

Strong to Damaging Wind Threat:
Computer models show a strong wind field with this system. There is some question as to how much of the winds will mix down to the surface but its quite likely that winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and possibly higher gusts will occur across portions of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. This will be dependent upon how well the strongest winds will mix down to the surface. A High Wind Watch is now in effect for all of Rhode Island, Essex, Suffolk, Southeast Middlesex, Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket counites of Massachusetts from Wednesday Morning through late Wednesday Night for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH possible. Across areas outside of the High Wind Watch area, there is the potential for Wind Advisory criteria winds with sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts of 45-50 MPH possible. These winds will be sufficient to cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered power outages.

Rainfall:
Heavy rainfall of 1-3″ is possible. The axis of heaviest rainfall will depend on the track of the system but current model trends indicate that portions of Eastern Masachusetts and Rhode Island could potentially have the heaviest rainfall. This could result in urban and poor drainage flooding. Currently, the threat for river/stream flooding is low.

Wet Snowfall Potential:
Wet snow could occur across portions of Southwest New Hampshire and Northwest Massachusetts. Light to moderate snowfall amounts are possible. A track a bit further offshore could let the rain/snow line drift a bit more eastward. If enough wet snow accumulates with the system, this could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered power outages. Snow accumulations and the areas affected with wet snowfall, if any, will be better defined in future forecasts.

Coastal Flooding:
Minor coastal flooding will be possible at the time of high tide across East Coastal Massachusetts for the Thursday Morning high tide with the possibility of pockets of moderate coastal flooding. The threat looks confined to the East Coast of Massachusetts but a track closer to the coast could cause more of a risk of minor coastal flooding and beach erosion to portions of South Coastal Massachusetts. This will be montiored in future computer model runs.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Wednesday lasting through early Thursday Morning. Another coordination message will be posted by 830 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement, Marine Weather Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

During Hurricane Sandy, the Taunton Gazette did a story on NWS Taunton operations during Hurricane Sandy. As part of the story, WX1BOX Amateur Radio Operators were mentioned in the story complete with a photo of Amateur Radio Emergency Services (ARES) SKYWARN Coordinator, Rob Macedo-KD1CY and Assistant ARES SKYWARN Coordinator, Carl Aveni-N1FY. A link to that story is posted below:

http://www.tauntongazette.com/bigstorm/x1292885439/National-Weather-Service-works-overtime-in-Taunton-office-to-keep-public-informed?zc_p=0&img=3

Thanks to Barry Kennedy-N1EZH for bringing this to our attention. Also, thanks to all Amateur Radio Operators and SKYWARN Spotters who supported efforts during Hurricane Sandy’s impact on Southern New England.

73,Rob-KD1CY.

ARES SKYWARN Coordinator for NWS Taunton Massachusetts

 

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Hello to all..

..Hurricane Sandy made landfall as expected in South-Central New Jersey Monday. Her impacts on Southern New England were significant with several hundred thousand people without power and storm surge levels along the south coast of Rhode Island in particular but also on South coastal Massachusetts near the impact of Hurricane Bob in 1991..
..Damage pictures and video from around the region and in particular of the coastline of South Coastal Rhode Island as well as South and East Coastal Massachusetts would be very helpful if its safe to take pictures and video. They can be sent as a reply to the rmacedo@rcn.com email address or sent to pics@nsradio.org email address with credit given to the spotter for gathering the pictures and video..
..It is noted that the New Jersey, New York City, Long Island New York region, and South Coastal Connecticut have been particularly hard hit by Sandy’s storm surge and high winds with significant infrastructure damage noted. To date, there have been no requests for an ARESMAT (Amateur Radio Emergency Services Mutual Aid Team) to the region and no self deployments should occur. This continues to be monitored..
..Indirectly related to the circulation of ‘post tropical cyclone Sandy’, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms developed off of the Southeast Massachusetts coast on Tuesday Evening October 30th. These strong to severe thunderstorms resulted in a microburst in the Wareham/Onset area as well as wind damage, large hail and flash flooding across portions of Eastern Massachusetts. The Local Storm Report for this event and the Public Information Statement on the Onset/Wareham Microburst are posted via the links below..
..Also posted below is an updated listing of storm reports from the National Weather Service Taunton Local Storm Report and Public Information Statement as well as a ‘near complete’ report listing generated early this morning on the Southern New England impact of Hurricane Sandy..
..Another post-coordination message may be posted this evening or this could be the last post-coordination message posted on the impact of Hurricane Sandy depending on what other data is received..

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/lsr_10_29_12.txt
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/10_30_12_LSR_Sandy.txt

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_10_29_12.txt
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_10_30_12_sandy.txt

Near Complete Listing of Reports from SKYWARN Spotter/Amateur Radio/Social Media:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/hurricane_sandy_reports_10_29_12.txt

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report – Tuesday October 30th, 2012 Line of Severe Thunderstorms:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/lsr_10_31_12_svr_tstorms_10_30.txt

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – Tuesday October 30th, 2012 Wareham/Onset Microburst:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_10_31_12_wareham_microburst.txt

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Hurricane Sandy made landfall as expected in South-Central New Jersey Monday. Her impacts on Southern New England were significant with several hundred thousand people without power and storm surge levels along the south coast of Rhode Island in particular but also on South coastal Massachusetts near the impact of Hurricane Bob in 1991..
..Damage pictures and video from around the region and in particular of the coastline of South Coastal Rhode Island as well as South and East Coastal Massachusetts would be very helpful if its safe to take pictures and video. They can be sent as a reply to the rmacedo@rcn.com email address or sent to pics@nsradio.org email address with credit given to the spotter for gathering the pictures and video..
..It is noted that the New Jersey, New York City, Long Island New York region, and South Coastal Connecticut have been particularly hard hit by Sandy’s storm surge and high winds with significant infrastructure damage noted. There would seem to be a possibility of communications Mutual Aid Team (MAT)/ARESMAT requirements for these areas, particularly New Jersey and the New York City/Long Island area but none are known right now. Seek advice from local ARES/EMCOMM leadership on any potential for Communications Mutual Aid team requirements for these areas if they develop and as storm surge waters recede..
..Below are the current listing of storm reports from the National Weather Service Taunton Local Storm Report and Public Information Statement as well as a ‘near complete’ report listing generated early this morning on the Southern New England impact of Hurricane Sandy..

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/lsr_10_29_12.txt

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_10_29_12.txt

Near Complete Listing of Reports from SKYWARN Spotter/Amateur Radio/Social Media:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/hurricane_sandy_reports_10_29_12.txt

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Hurricane Sandy taking aim on the US Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US Coast. Preparedness measures in Southern New England need to be completed by late Sunday Night to worse case Monday Morning. We need to continue to emphasize the fact that you should not focus on the track of the storm center to New Jersey or Sandy’s status as a tropical or post-tropical system as this will be a large and severe storm system with severe weather and damaging to hurricane force wind conditions occurring several hundred miles from the storm center and a track at or north of Cape May New Jersey means major to significant impact for Southern New England. Model trends remain between Cape May New Jersey and Long Island New York..
..A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect from Monday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon for East Coastal and South Coastal Massachusetts and South Coastal Rhode Island for several high tide cycles of coastal flooding. The worst tide for coastal flooding on the south coast of Masaschusetts and Rhode Island will be the Monday Evening high tide where the coastal flood episode could be as bad if not worse than Hurricane Bob. The Monday Morning high tide on the south coast will also need monitoring. Across East Coastal Massachusetts, the Monday midday high tide will be comparable or worse than the Partiots Storm of 2007..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area and now includes Southern New Hampshire from 6 AM Monday Morning to 6 AM Tuesday Night..
..A Flood Watch remains in effect for Cheshire County New Hampshire, all of Northern Connecticut, and Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts from Monday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will now commence at 4 AM ET Monday and lasting through Tuesday Afternoon..
..For Situational awareness/disaster intelligence purposes, we request that wind damage, storm surge and flood pictures be sent to the email addres pics@nsradio.org or reply to the rmacedo@rcn.com email address. Credit will be given to the spotter and pictures sent to the media, emergency management, and the National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida..
..ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Sandy and seek advice from local leadership. Eastern Massachusetts ARES was placed on stand-by as of 830 PM Friday Evening 10/26/12 until further notice looking for availability of Amateur Radio resources for possible deployment. New Hampshire ARES reports that they are at a level-2 activation meaning that a potential for a communications emergency exists. Connecticut ARES reports that they have raised their activation level to a level-2 standby effective at 0800 EDT Sunday October 28th, 2012 and Western Massachusetts ARES has been placed on standby..
..To underscore the potential severity of this system, the coordinators at the National Hurricane Center Amateur Radio Station, WX4NHC, Julio Ripoll-WD4R and John McHugh-K4AG have coordinated with our team and have declared that they will be active for the entire duration of Sandy’s impact to our region regardless of whether the system remains classified as a tropical system over our region. WX4NHC plans to activate at 9 AM ET Monday Morning for the duration of this event..

Hurricane Sandy is continuing to move northeastward and has a lower central pressure which is indicating strengthening. This motion will continue but eventually turn back to the North and Northwest as Sandy is blocked by high pressure over the Greenland area. Sandy’s wind field remains 520 miles wide. That wind field could expand even further with time. This is why a track of the storm into New Jersey will still mean significant/major impacts to Southern New England. The wind field is so wide, it will cover much of the Mid-Atlantic and the South-Central portions of New York and New England. For these reasons, we urge preparedness measures for the potential of extended power outages. At the coast, several cycles of storm surge flooding will likely cause significant issues along coastal shore roads and possibly to structures along the water. For the heavy rainfall threat, this will be worst over Western New England.

The following is a model analysis and breakdown of the various severe weather threats:

Weather Model Anaylsis:
There have been no significant changes in the model runs. Weather Models appear to be locking in on a solution that will track the system off our coastline by approximately 150 miles with a gradual bend back to the west with landfall somewhere along the Central New Jersey coastline. Most reliable model guidance brings this powerful, large storm system north of Cape May New Jersey which is the point that has been defined as bringing significant impact to Southern New England. Therefore, a track to New Jersey still means a significant impact to Southern New England because of the very large wind field.

Wind Threat:
A High Wind Warning is now in effect for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area including Southern New Hampshire from 6 AM Monday Morning to 6 AM Tuesday Morning. Widespread Damaging winds are expected meaning the potential for widespread tree and wire damage and extended power outages. Minor structural damage is possible. Sustained winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts to 70 MPH and the potential for hurricane force wind gusts are possible, especially across portions of Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Eastern Massachusetts. Across the remainder of the NWS Taunton Coverage area, sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 65 MPH and possibly a few higher wind gusts especially in higher elevations of the interior. It is noted valley interior locations could have somewhat reduced winds.

Coastal Flood Threat:
Several high tide cycles of coastal flooding are likely across East and South Coastal Massachusetts and South Coastal Rhode Island and a Coastal Flood Warning is now in effect for these areas for these areas from Monday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon. Storm surge flooding along the south coast of Massachusetts and Rhode Island will likely be most significant around the Monday Evening high tide though minor to moderate coastal flooding is likely on the Monday Morning high tide. Across the east coast of Massachusetts, the worst of the coastal flooding will occur during the midday Monday high tide cycle for East Coastal Massachusetts. Storm surge of 3-5 feet is possible with isolated higher storm surge in Narragasett Bay and Buzzards Bay where major coastal flooding is possible.

The worst tide for coastal flooding on the south coast of Masaschusetts and Rhode Island will be the Monday Evening high tide where the coastal flood episode could be as bad if not worse than Hurricane Bob. The Monday Morning high tide on the south coast will also need monitoring. Across East Coastal Massachusetts, the Monday midday high tide will be comparable or worse than the Partiots Storm of 2007.

River/Stream/Urban Flood Threat:
The highest rainfall totals of 1.5-3″ with isolated 3-5″ amounts will occur across Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. A Flood Watch is in effect for these areas for rivers, streams and urban areas from Monday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon. Across the remainder of the NWS Taunton coverage area, rain will be more showery and squally in nature meaning brief urban flood issues but less of a threat for river and stream flooding and 1-2″ of rainfall with isolated higher amounts are possible in the remainder of the NWS Taunton coverage area.

To underscore the potential severity of this system, the coordinators at the National Hurricane Center Amateur Radio Station, WX4NHC, Julio Ripoll-WD4R and John McHugh-K4AG have coordinated with our team and have declared that they will be active for the entire duration of Sandy’s impact to our region regardless of whether the system remains classified as a tropical system over our region. The VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net will also be active. WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio station at the National Hurricane Center, plans to start operations at 9 AM Monday Morning currently. The links for the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center and the hurricane nets appear below:

WX4NHC – Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of Hurricane Sandy. People should complete their preparedness measures by late Sunday Night or worse case Monday Morning. NWS Taunton has posted a new Public Information Statement on Safety and Preparedness steps for Hurricane Sandy. That information can be seen via the link below:

http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_10_25_12_hurricane_sandy.txt

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 4 AM ET Monday and lasting through Tuesday Afternoon. ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Sandy and seek advice from local leadership. Eastern Massachusetts ARES was placed on stand-by as of 830 PM Friday Evening 10/26/12 until further notice looking for availability of Amateur Radio resources for possible deployment. New Hampshire ARES reports that they are at a level-2 activation meaning that a potential for a communications emergency exists. Connecticut ARES reports that they have raised their activation level to a level-2 standby effective at 0800 EDT Sunday October 28th, 2012 and Western Massachusetts ARES has been placed on standby.

For Situational awareness/disaster intelligence purposes, we request that wind damage, storm surge and flood pictures be sent to the email addres pics@nsradio.org or reply to the rmacedo@rcn.com email address. Credit will be given to the spotter and pictures sent to the media, emergency management, and the National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida.

Please complete your preparations by late Sunday Night or worse case Modnay Morning and keep your situational awareness high for Hurricane Sandy. The following is the NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement, High Wind Warning Statement, Coastal Flood Warning Statement, Marine Weather Statement, Area Forecast Discussion and Hazardous Weather Outlook along with the National Hurricane Center Tropical Advisory pacakage:

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Sandy Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt33.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt43.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt23.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font13.KNHC.html

This is the last coordination message on Hurricane Sandy. A special reporting criteria message was sent out earlier this morning as well.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

The following is a Hurricane Sandy Statement on WX1BOX on social media and special reporting guidelines and safety tips from the Amateur Radio Coordinators at the National Hurricane Center. Special thanks to Amateur Radio Assistant Coordinator at the National Hurricane Center Amateur Radio Station, WX4NHC, Julio Ripoll-WD4R for providing this information.

First of all, WX1BOX is on both Twitter and Facebook. Look for us by doing a facebook or Twitter search for WX1BOX. This is a means to get storm updates and to share storm reports and pictures with us. Our facebook and Twitter info can be seen below:

http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
http://twitter.com/wx1box

Please adhere to the following safety tips provided by Julio Ripoll-WD4R:

Please emphasize that all operators should make necessary preparations to secure their homes and families first and take precautions for themselves seriously. Do not take any risks in trying to collect weather data. Even a CAT-1 is a dangerous Hurricane. Wind driven debris can cause serious injuries. Fallen electrical lines may not be visible and can cause electrocution even underwater. Storm Surge and Flash Floods are the major cause of death in hurricanes.

In terms of reporting criteria on Amateur Radio SKYWARN Nets, the standard SKYWARN reporting criteria is sufficient. Report damage to trees and wires, structural damage, measured wind gusts 40 MPH or greater. Report any river, stream flooding. Urban flooding should be reported when 6″ or more of water are covering at least one travel lane or the entire roadway. In terms of wind measurements, the wind direction and sustained wind along with the peak gust is very useful provided the wind gust is 40 MPH or greater. Noting the lowest barometric pressure reading is also helpful and any measured rainfall 2″ or more and every 1″ thereafter and any rainfall of 1″ or more per hour (not rainfall rate but an actual accumulation of 1″ or more within an hour period).

Please send any pictures or video to this address either as an attachment or links to the pictures and video or you can also send the pictures to the email address pics at nsradio.org. These pictures will be sent to media, local, state and federal emergency management, the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center with credit given to the people that are sending the pictures and video.

On Amateur Radio SKYWARN Nets, please help with the following:

1.) Refrain from general reports of ‘its raining hard’ or ‘very windy’ here.
2.) Refrain from flooding reports that are under 6″ of water and not in the travel lane of the roadway.
3.) Reporting wind gusts or sustained winds that are not of at least 40 MPH.
4.) If you’ve had a wind gust of criteria of 40 MPH or higher or a sustained wind of 40 MPH, please make the next report when you’ve had another higher gust or sustained wind of higher magnitude and give the wind direction.

We appreciate everyone’s support and look forward to working with everyone during Hurricane Sandy. Thanks to all for everyone’s support, stay safe and hopefully the damage from this hurricane will not be as bad as its potential.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more

Hello to all..

..Hurricane Sandy taking aim on the US Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US Coast. Preparedness measures in Southern New England need to be completed by late Sunday Night to worse case Monday Morning. We need to continue to emphasize the fact that you should not focus on the track of the storm center to New Jersey or Sandy’s status as a tropical or post-tropical system as this will be a large and severe storm system with severe weather and damaging to hurricane force wind conditions occurring several hundred miles from the storm center and a track at or north of Cape May New Jersey means major to significant impact for Southern New England. Model trends have been shifting northward with time north of Cape May to as far north as Long Island..
..A Coastal Flood Warning is now in effect from Monday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon for East Coastal and South Coastal Massachusetts and South Coastal Rhode Island for several high tide cycles of coastal flooding..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area except for Southern New Hampshire from 6 AM Monday Morning to 6 AM Tuesday Night..
..A High Wind Watch remains in effect for Southern New Hampshire from Monday Morning through late Monday Night..
..A Flood Watch remains now in effect for Cheshire County New Hampshire, all of Northern Connecticut, and Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts from Monday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely beginning at 5 AM ET Monday and lasting through Tuesday Afternoon..
..ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Sandy and seek advice from local leadership. Eastern Massachusetts ARES was placed on stand-by as of 830 PM Friday Evening 10/26/12 until further notice looking for availability of Amateur Radio resources for possible deployment. New Hampshire ARES reports that they are at a level-2 activation meaning that a potential for a communications emergency exists. Connecticut ARES reports that they have raised their activation level to a level-2 standby effective at 0800 EDT Sunday October 28th, 2012 and Western Massachusetts ARES has been placed on standby..
..To underscore the potential severity of this system, the coordinators at the National Hurricane Center Amateur Radio Station, WX4NHC, Julio Ripoll-WD4R and John McHugh-K4AG have coordinated with our team and have declared that they will be active for the entire duration of Sandy’s impact to our region regardless of whether the system remains classified as a tropical system over our region. WX4NHC plans to activate at 9 AM ET Monday Morning for the duration of this event..

Hurricane Sandy is continuing to move northeastward and has a lower central pressure which is indicating strengthening. This motion will continue but eventually turn back to the North and Northwest as Sandy is blocked by high pressure over the Greenland area. Sandy’s wind field remains 520 miles wide. That wind field could expand even further with time. This is why a track of the storm into New Jersey will still mean significant/major impacts to Southern New England. The wind field is so wide, it will cover much of the Mid-Atlantic and the South-Central portions of New York and New England. For these reasons, we urge preparedness measures for the potential of extended power outages. At the coast, several cycles of storm surge flooding will likely cause significant issues along coastal shore roads and possibly to structures along the water. For the heavy rainfall threat, this will be worst over Western New England.

The following is a model analysis and breakdown of the various severe weather threats:

Weather Model Anaylsis:
There have been no significant changes in the model runs. Weather Models appear to be locking in on a solution that will track the system off our coastline by approximately 150 miles with a gradual bend back to the west with landfall somewhere along the Central New Jersey coastline. Three reliable computer models are in agreement with that track with one other reliable model bringins the storm to southern New Jersey. Most reliable model guidance brings this powerful, large storm system north of Cape May New Jersey which is the point that has been defined as bringing significant impact to Southern New England. Therefore, a track to New Jersey still means a significant impact to Southern New England because of the very large wind field.

Wind Threat:
A High Wind Warning is now in effect for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area except for Southern New Hampshire from 6 AM Monday Morning to 6 AM Tuesday Morning. Widespread Damaging winds are expected meaning the potential for widespread tree and wire damage and extended power outages. Minor structural damage is possible. Sustained winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts to 70 MPH and the potential for hurricane force wind gusts are possible, especially across portions of Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Eastern Massachusetts. Across the remainder of the NWS Taunton Coverage area, sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 65 MPH and possibly a few higher wind gusts especially in higher elevations of the interior. It is noted valley interior locations could have somewhat reduced winds.

Coastal Flood Threat:
Several high tide cycles of coastal flooding are likely across East and South Coastal Massachusetts and South Coastal Rhode Island and a Coastal Flood Warning is now in effect for these areas for these areas from Monday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon. Storm surge flooding along the south coast of Massachusetts and Rhode Island will likely be most significant around the Monday Evening high tide though minor to moderate coastal flooding is likely on the Monday Morning high tide. Across the east coast of Massachusetts, the worst of the coastal flooding will occur during the midday Monday high tide cycle for East Coastal Massachusetts. Storm surge of 3-5 feet is possible with isolated higher storm surge in Narragasett Bay and Buzzards Bay where major coastal flooding is possible.

River/Stream/Urban Flood Threat:
The highest rainfall totals of 1.5-3″ with isolated 3-5″ amounts will occur across Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. A Flood Watch is in effect for these areas for rivers, streams and urban areas from Monday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon. Across the remainder of the NWS Taunton coverage area, rain will be more showery and squally in nature meaning brief urban flood issues but less of a threat for river and stream flooding and 1-2″ of rainfall with isolated higher amounts are possible in the remainder of the NWS Taunton coverage area.

To underscore the potential severity of this system, the coordinators at the National Hurricane Center Amateur Radio Station, WX4NHC, Julio Ripoll-WD4R and John McHugh-K4AG have coordinated with our team and have declared that they will be active for the entire duration of Sandy’s impact to our region regardless of whether the system remains classified as a tropical system over our region. The VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net will also be active. WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio station at the National Hurricane Center, plans to start operations at 9 AM Monday Morning currently. The links for the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center and the hurricane nets appear below:

WX4NHC – Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of Hurricane Sandy. People should working on their preparedness measures and completing the preparedness measures by late Sunday Night or worse case Monday Morning. NWS Taunton has posted a new Public Information Statement on Safety and Preparedness steps for Hurricane Sandy. That information can be seen via the link below:

http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_10_25_12_hurricane_sandy.txt

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely beginning at 5 AM ET Monday and lasting through Tuesday Afternoon. ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Sandy and seek advice from local leadership. Eastern Massachusetts ARES was placed on stand-by as of 830 PM Friday Evening 10/26/12 until further notice looking for availability of Amateur Radio resources for possible deployment. New Hampshire ARES reports that they are at a level-2 activation meaning that a potential for a communications emergency exists. Connecticut ARES reports that they have raised their activation level to a level-2 standby effective at 0800 EDT Sunday October 28th, 2012 and Western Massachusetts ARES has been placed on standby.

Please continue to prepare and keep your situational awareness high for Hurricane Sandy. The following is the NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement, High Wind Warning Statement, Coastal Flood Warning Statement, Marine Weather Statement, Area Forecast Discussion and Hazardous Weather Outlook along with the National Hurricane Center Tropical Advisory pacakage:

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Sandy Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt33.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt43.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt23.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font13.KNHC.html

The last coordination message on Hurricane Sandy will be posted by 930 PM Sunday Evening as we move into operations mode Monday. A special reporting criteria message will be posted later Sunday Morning.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Hurricane Sandy taking aim on the US Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US Coast. Preparedness measures in Southern New England need to be completed by late Sunday Night to worse case Monday Morning. We need to continue to emphasize the fact that you should not focus on the track of the storm center to New Jersey or Sandy’s status as a tropical or post-tropical system as this will be a large and severe storm system with severe weather and damaging to hurricane force wind conditions occurring several hundred miles from the storm center and a track at or north of Cape May New Jersey means major to significant impact for Southern New England. Model trends have been shifting northward with time north of Cape May to as far north as Long Island..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect from Monday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon for East Coastal and South Coastal Massachusetts and South Coastal Rhode Island for several high tide cycles of coastal flooding..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area from Monday Morning to late Monday Night..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect for Cheshire County New Hampshire, all of Northern Connecticut, and Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts from Monday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely beginning at 5 AM ET Monday and lasting through Tuesday Afternoon..
..ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Sandy and seek advice from local leadership. Eastern Massachusetts ARES was placed on stand-by as of 830 PM Friday Evening 10/26/12 until further notice looking for availability of Amateur Radio resources for possible deployment. New Hampshire ARES reports that they are at a level-2 activation meaning that a potential for a communications emergency exists. Connecticut ARES reports that they have raised their activation level to a level-2 standby effective at 0800 EDT Sunday October 28th, 2012 and Western Massachusetts ARES has been placed on standby..
..To underscore the potential severity of this system, the coordinators at the National Hurricane Center Amateur Radio Station, WX4NHC, Julio Ripoll-WD4R and John McHugh-K4AG have coordinated with our team and have declared that they will be active for the entire duration of Sandy’s impact to our region regardless of whether the system remains classified as a tropical system over our region. WX4NHC plans to activate at 9 AM ET Monday Morning for the duration of this event..

Hurricane Sandy is now moving northeastward. This motion will continue but eventually turn back to the North and Northwest as Sandy is blocked by high pressure over the Greenland area. Sandy’s wind field has widened significantly. Sandy now has a wind radius that is currently 520 miles wide. That wind field could expand even further with time. This is why a track of the storm into New Jersey will still mean significant/major impacts to Southern New England. The wind field is so wide, it will cover much of the Mid-Atlantic and the South-Central portions of New York and New England. For these reasons, we urge preparedness measures for the potential of extended power outages. At the coast, several cycles of storm surge flooding will likely cause significant issues along coastal shore roads and possibly to structures along the water. For the heavy rainfall threat, this will be worst over Western New England.

The following is a model analysis and breakdown of the various severe weather threats:

Weather Model Anaylsis:
Models appear to be shifting toward a solution that will track the system off our coastline by approximately 150 miles with a gradual bend back to the west with landfall somewhere along the Central New Jersey coastline. Three reliable computer models are in agreement with that track with one other reliable model bringins the storm to southern New Jersey. Most reliable model guidance brings this powerful, large storm system north of Cape May New Jersey which is the point that has been defined as bringing significant impact to Southern New England. Therefore, a track to New Jersey still means a significant impact to Southern New England because of the very large wind field.

Wind Threat:
A High Wind Watch is in effect for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area from Monday Morning to Monday Night. Widespread Damaging winds are expected meaning the potential for widespread tree and wire damage and extended power outages. Minor structural damage is possible. Sustained winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts to 70 MPH and the potential for hurricane force wind gusts are possible, especially across portions of Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Eastern Massachusetts. Across the remainder of the NWS Taunton Coverage area, sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and possibly a few higher wind gusts especially in higher elevations of the interior.

Coastal Flood Threat:
Several high tide cycles of coastal flooding are likely across East and South Coastal Massachusetts and South Coastal Rhode Island and a Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect for these areas for these areas from Monday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon. Storm surge flooding along the south coast of Massachusetts and Rhode Island will likely be most significant around the Monday Evening high tide. Across the east coast of Massachusetts, the worst of the coastal flooding will occur during the midday Monday high tide cycle for East Coastal Massachusetts. Storm surge of 3-5 feet is possible with isolated higher storm surge in Narragasett Bay where major coastal flooding is possible.

River/Stream/Urban Flood Threat:
The highest rainfall totals of 1.5-3″ with isolated 3-5″ amounts will occur across Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. A Flood Watch is in effect for these areas for rivers, streams and urban areas from Monday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon. Across the remainder of the NWS Taunton coverage area, rain will be more showery and squally in nature meaning brief urban flood issues but less of a threat for river and stream flooding and 1-2″ of rainfall with isolated higher amounts are possible in the remainder of the NWS Taunton coverage area.

To underscore the potential severity of this system, the coordinators at the National Hurricane Center Amateur Radio Station, WX4NHC, Julio Ripoll-WD4R and John McHugh-K4AG have coordinated with our team and have declared that they will be active for the entire duration of Sandy’s impact to our region regardless of whether the system remains classified as a tropical system over our region. The VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net will also be active. WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio station at the National Hurricane Center, plans to start operations at 9 AM Monday Morning currently. The links for the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center and the hurricane nets appear below:

WX4NHC – Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of Hurricane Sandy. People should working on their preparedness measures and completing the preparedness measures by late Sunday Night or worse case Monday Morning. NWS Taunton has posted a new Public Information Statement on Safety and Preparedness steps for Hurricane Sandy. That information can be seen via the link below:

http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_10_25_12_hurricane_sandy.txt

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely beginning at 5 AM ET Monday and lasting through Tuesday Afternoon. ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Sandy and seek advice from local leadership. Eastern Massachusetts ARES was placed on stand-by as of 830 PM Friday Evening 10/26/12 until further notice looking for availability of Amateur Radio resources for possible deployment. New Hampshire ARES reports that they are at a level-2 activation meaning that a potential for a communications emergency exists. Connecticut ARES reports that they have raised their activation level to a level-2 standby effective at 0800 EDT Sunday October 28th, 2012 and Western Massachusetts ARES has been placed on standby.

Please continue to prepare and keep your situational awareness high for Hurricane Sandy. The following is the NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement, High Wind Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, Marine Weather Statement, Area Forecast Discussion and Hazardous Weather Outlook along with the National Hurricane Center Tropical Advisory pacakage:

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Sandy Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt33.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt43.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt23.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font13.KNHC.html

The next coordination message will be posted by 1130 AM Sunday Morning. A special reporting criteria message will be posted either late tonight or Sunday Morning.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Hurricane Sandy taking aim on the US Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US Coast. Preparedness measures in Southern New England need to be stepped up and we cannot emphasize enough to not focus on the track of the storm center to New Jersey or Sandy’s status as a tropical or post-tropical system as this will be a large and severe storm system with severe weather and damaging to hurricane force wind conditions occurring several hundred miles from the storm center and a track at or north of Cape May New Jersey means major to significant impact for Southern New England. Model trends have been shifting northward with time north of Cape May to as far north as Long Island and even the Southern New England coastline as well..
..Multiple reliable computer weather models depict a powerful storm system of large and severe nature taking aim on portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US Coast with major/significant impact becoming more likely for Southern New England. A track north of Cape May New Jersey, which is becoming more likely, means damaging to hurricane force winds with widespread downed trees and wires and power outages, significant beach erosion and coastal storm surge flooding over several high tide cycles and heavy rainfall for the region. A track south of Cape May New Jersey to Washington DC would result in strong to damaging winds, minor to moderate coastal flooding and isolated to scattered power outages. Again, the timeframe for potential impact will be in the Sunday Night through Tuesday timeframe..
..Interests in Southern New England should continue monitoring the progress of Hurricane Sandy. The National Hurricane Center Advisories are now requesting interests along the entire US East Coast to closely monitor the progress of Sandy and the ‘cone of uncertainity’ on the track of Sandy is now covering much of Southern New England..
..In this coordination message, we will update the impacts based on the current reliable track solutions available at the time of issuance of this coordination message..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely as early as late Sunday Night through Tuesday possibly extending into Wednesday..
..ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Sandy and seek advice from local leadership. Eastern Massachusetts ARES was placed on stand-by as of 830 PM Friday Evening 10/26/12 until further notice looking for availability of Amateur Radio resources for possible deployment. New Hampshire ARES reports that they are at a level-2 activation meaning that a potential for a communications emergency exists..
..To underscore the potential severity of this system, the coordinators at the National Hurricane Center Amateur Radio Station, WX4NHC, Julio Ripoll-WD4R and John McHugh-K4AG have coordinated with our team and have declared that they will be active for the entire duration of Sandy’s impact to our region regardless of whether the system remains classified as a tropical system over our region..

Hurricane Sandy is now moving slowly northward and will continue northward. Sandy has a wind radius that is currently 275 miles wide. The storm will likely expand further and likely have a wind field greater than 350 miles wide. Sandy is then expected to move parallel but offshore of the US East Coast. Multiple computer models are depicting a scenario where Sandy, either as a tropical system or a hybrid/nor’easter system with both tropical and non-tropical characteristics tracks into either the northern mid-atlantic or Southern New England providing either a moderate to severe impact to the region.

Here is an update on the scenarios. A track of this storm at or north of Cape May New Jersey will mean major/significant impact to Southern New England which would mean damaging to hurricane force winds, significant beach erosion and severe coastal flooding over several high tide cycles and heavy rainfall for much of the region. A track south of Cape May New Jersey to Washington DC means a moderate impact with strong to damaging winds especially at higher eleations and along the coast, minor to moderate coastal flooding over several high tide cycles and still the threat for heavy rainfall over southern and western parts of the region.

With some more model consistency seen overnight, it is time to discuss some of the model tracks and what they mean for our region. Given this system will be large in size and severe in magnitude and likely carrying both tropical and non-tropical characteristics, there are several important items to note.

1.) We cannot overemphasize that with this system more than any other tropical system in recent times and even including Irene which had a large size and envelope from last year, do not focus on the center of Sandy. Sandy is likely to be a large storm well over 350 miles wide as it approaches the mid-atlantic and Northeast United States. There has been other precedents for such large wind envelopes. In November 2007, Post-Tropical Noel despite tracking several hundred miles offshore of Cape Cod brought hurricane force winds gusts and severe criteria sustained winds to that region with wind gusts to near severe criteria across Eastern and South Coastal Massachusetts. A track at or north of Cape May New Jersey means major/significant impact to Southern New England.

2.) The latest track guidance continues to be over or just south of Long Island and even implying the coast of Southern New England at times. Even one of the reliable models that had a track to the Delmarva/Cape May New Jersey point is now further north into Central New Jersey. This is increasing confidence on a major/significant impact to Southern New England. There remains another camp of models brings the track more towards the Delmarva/Southern New Jersey area that still needs to be monitored but the overall consensus of models is a further north track over the course of today’s runs.

3.) Do not focus on whether Sandy remains at hurricane/tropical storm status or a post-tropical storm system. In fact, the reason a system that could potentially track into New Jersey can provide such a significant impact to southern New England is because it will become either a hybrid system of both tropical and non-tropical nature or a large system of non-tropical characteristics. This is why we cannot overemphasize the fact that a track even as far south as Cape May New Jersey means significant impact to Southern New England.

4.) Track model guidance is likely to shift more and the last several cycles are depicting a track closer to Southern New England track could occur which means higher winds and worse conditions for the region. A further south track would lessen the impact but it would take a track south of Cape May New Jersey to lower the impact to a moderate impact and it would take a track south of Washington DC to a minor impact. This is due to the sheer size of the expected system.

The Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, WX4NHC, the VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net were active much of Wednesday and Thursday for Sandy’s impact on Jamaica and Eastern Cuba and up into the Central and Northwest Bahamas. WX4NHC and the Hurricane Watch Net was active today for impacts on the Bahamas. See their respective net links for details:

WX4NHC – Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

To underscore the potential severity of this system, the coordinators at the National Hurricane Center Amateur Radio Station, WX4NHC, Julio Ripoll-WD4R and John McHugh-K4AG have coordinated with our team and have declared that they will be active for the entire duration of Sandy’s impact to our region regardless of whether the system remains classified as a tropical system over our region.

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of Hurricane Sandy. People should gradually begin reviewing their preparedness measures for storm force or tropical storm to hurricane force conditions as a precaution. NWS Taunton has posted a new Public Information Statement on Safety and Preparedness steps for Hurricane Sandy. That information can be seen via the link below:

http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_10_25_12_hurricane_sandy.txt

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely as early as late Sunday Night through potentially Tuesday. ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Sandy and seek advice from local leadership. Eastern Massachusetts ARES was placed on stand-by as of 830 PM Friday Evening 10/26/12 until further notice looking for availability of Amateur Radio resources for possible deployment. New Hampshire ARES reports that they are at a level-2 activation meaning that a potential for a communications emergency exists.

Once again, Hurricane Sandy should be monitored closely by people in Southern New England. NWS Taunton has issued a Marine Weather Statement for marine interests, that statement, the NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion and the latest NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and advisory information on Hurricane Sandy are listed below:

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Sandy Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt33.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt43.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt23.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font13.KNHC.html

The next coordination message will likely be posted some time either Saturday Morning or early Afternoon pending further computer model data on the track of Sandy and significant updates to Sandy’s status as a tropical system from an intensity and transition to a hybrid system perspective.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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