Storm/Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday 6/9/22 Heavy Rainfall & Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Heavy Rainfall with embedded thunderstorms are likely Thursday Morning to early Afternoon. Widespread rainfall of 0.5-1.5″ of rain with isolated higher amounts are likely across Southern New England. With the recent dry weather, the rain will be beneficial but the amounts will fall over a 3-6 hour period which will increase the risk for urban/poor drainage flooding in the those typical spots in areas that get higher rates of rainfall..
..In addition, there is a risk of an isolated strong or severe thunderstorm with the morning heavy rainfall this morning into early afternoon followed by the risk of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms in Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island during the afternoon and early evening hours with strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning as the main threats. The key with any strong to severe thunderstorms with the cold front will be the ability for storms to overcome mid-level dry air to allow for the storms to be able to form..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the heavy rainfall this Thursday Morning to early afternoon for flooding and rainfall reports along with the severe weather potential throughout the day today. This will be the only coordination message on this heavy rainfall and severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Special Announcement: 11th Anniversary of the June 1st 2011 Massachusetts Tornado Outbreak

Hello to all..

We have reached the 11 year anniversary of a historic day in Southern New England Weather History. The June 1st, 2011 Massachusetts Tornado Outbreak will be a day long remembered in weather history. This announcement recaps the tornado outbreak and the lessons learned that apply today. This message is leveraged from prior anniversary messages with some updates.

The June 1st, 2011 event was forecasted by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman Oklahoma as far as 5 days out. This is very rare for New England to be in a convective outlook past 3 days. The outlook of ‘Slight Risk’ for severe weather would continue right up through June 1st. As we got into June 1st, a fast moving area of rapidly developing severe thunderstorms ahead of the warm front affected portions of Southern New Hampshire and Northeast Massachusetts producing large hail. These storms quickly moved out of area and were a sign of things to come and how explosive the atmosphere was on June 1st. Abundant sunshine and rapid heating and destabilization coupled with extremely strong wind shear values, set the stage for a historic major severe weather outbreak in Massachusetts and other parts of New England. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma issued a Mesoscale Convective Discussion highlighting the need for Tornado Watches for much of New York and New England. The Tornado Watches would be issued and supercell severe thunderstorms would move into Southern New England.

Initially the supercells produced very large hail including hail slightly over 4″ in diameter in East Windsor Massachusetts, Berkshire County, which may potentially set the new record for the commonwealth as far as hail size but no tornadic or wind damage activity through 400 PM. This is when the supercell began to take shape in Western Hampden County Massachusetts and set the stage for the large, long track EF-3 Tornado that traversed the area from Westfield to Charlton Massachusetts for a 38-mile long damage path and was on the ground for 70 minutes. Three smaller tornadoes occurred in Western and Central Massachusetts from additional supercells moving through the area. Another area of supercells went through Northern Worcester County into Middlesex and Suffolk Counties producing Golf Ball Sized hail and pockets of wind damage all the way into the Metro Boston area.

June 1st, 2011 underscored how important Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters are to the warning process and how the timely severe weather reporting can not only help the warning process but can also help saves lives. The near real-time reporting of the large EF-3 tornado touchdown with initial preliminary reports in Westfield including from Al Giguere Jr.-KB1VNH, the actual spotting of the EF3 Tornado by several Amateurs including KB1NOX-Richard Stewart who was in a car with several other Amateurs, Western Massachusetts SKYWARN Coordinator, Ray-W1NWS, and the amazing remote webcam footage from WWLP-TV channel 22 in Springfield Massachusetts helped to tell people that not only was this a radar detected tornado but that it was definitely on the ground and doing significant damage. It is quite likely that many lives were saved by this near realtime reporting of the tornado being on the ground.

Amateur Radio SKYWARN Nets were active on several Amateur Radio Repeaters including the 146.940-Mount Tom Repeater run by the Mount Tom Amateur Radio Club and with Amateur Radio members and SKYWARN Spotters from the Hampden County Radio Association also reporting into the net. The 146.970-Paxton Repeater run by the Central Massachusetts Amateur Radio Club was active for several hours as well. Both repeaters providing significant near realtime reporting for situational awareness and disaster intelligence purposes not only to the National Weather Service but also to the media, local, state and federal emergency management officials. The Amateur Radio Internet Radio Linking Project (IRLP)/Echolink system on the echolink conference *NEW-ENG* node 9123/IRLP 9123 was also active with liaisons from various Amateur Radio nets reporting into the network. While not in the NWS Boston/Norton (formerly Taunton) Coverage Area, the 146.910-Mount Greylock Repeater was active with Berkshire County SKYWARN as run by Rick-WA1ZHM with Walt-N1DQU providing information from the net into NWS. Net Controls for the 146.940 Mount Tom Net were Bob Meneguzzo-K1YO and for the 146.970 Paxton Net, John Ruggiero-N2YHK. N9SC-Steve Craven provided a critical liaison link from the 146.970-Paxton Repeater Net to the 146.940-Mount Tom Net during the tornadic outbreak. Many Amateur Radio Operators and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters reported severe weather conditions despite being at risk from these powerful supercells. We are forever grateful for the reporting that helped save lives. The outpouring of damage assessment pictures and videos and reports near and after the event was unprecedented. This clearly helped Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), local and state emergency management perform their duties to try and bring as many resources to bear on the significant path of destruction carved out by the tornado outbreak.

For the victims, today is likely a painful reminder of what occurred and what loses they faced in terms of property damage and possibly lives lost. Our thoughts and prayers remain to all those people that are affected and we hope that they have fully recovered and moved on with their lives after this tornado outbreak.

For those not impacted by such a significant event as June 1st and not impacted severely by other significant severe weather events that have occurred over the past decade, this is a reminder that we must all be prepared for these significant weather situations that occur at low frequency but can be with high impact. The more self-sufficient and prepared we are, the easier the situation will be if we are faced with such a significant scenario if it comes our way and potentially occurs in a more widespread way. For those SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators who have not witnessed such severe weather, this is why we train and prepare because we never know the hour or day where a critical severe weather report can help the warning process and save lives.

On a personal level, we never want severe weather like this to happen but if it has to happen, the level of commitment, support and reporting of the situation in near realtime on June 1st with a high level of precision and quality but also in the quantity that the reports came through in our network is a testament to all of you for remaining dedicated and supportive of the National Weather Service SKYWARN program. It is an honor and a privilege for myself and many of our Amateur Radio SKYWARN Coordinators across the NWS Boston/Norton Coverage Area to serve as leaders of the program and we appreciate everything you do, as without all of you, we wouldn’t have the SKYWARN program we have today in our region. Having been the leader of the program for over 25 years, this was our finest hour in supporting the NWS office and saving lives and it couldn’t have been done without all of your support.

Given the 11-year anniversary, here are some stories from SKYWARN Spotters, Amateur Radio Operators and others from this day as collected in the last few days leading up to this year’s anniversary:

Steve Hooke – Norfolk County Task Force:
11 years ago today I responded to Brimfield with the Norfolk County Task Force to assist with search and rescue after the tornado hit. Only those who were there that night can really understand what we did and what we saw. The destruction was unimaginable. Those assigned to the task force that day have my ultimate respect.

Frank Cummings via the WX1BOX Facebook Page:
I visited a person in that area a few weeks after the storms. His house and property were essentially untouched. All that was left of his next door neighbor’s home was the foundation. and the devastation was widespread. The whole area looked like a game of Giant Pick Up Sticks – trees laying askew for as far as the eye could see and foundations left on lots stripped of almost vegetation. Terrible.

Gail Morrissey – Monson, MA – WX1BOX Twitter Feed:
I live three houses down from a tilted one and was home when it hit. Not a fun experience. The upside down house, Judy and Doug’s, were up the street from me. I learned to be a weather spotter from you after this.

Josh Adler – WX1BOX Twitter Feed:
Flew into these storms coming back from LAX to Logan. Single most turbulent flight I’ve ever been on. It was a wild ride!

Joe Sciacca – SKYWARN Spotter and Meteorologist for Precision Weather Forecasting, Inc.:
Here are my memories of June 1, 2011: I was a sophomore in high school at Austin Prep in Reading, MA. It was a Tuesday morning and I was on my way to school. Around 7:30 am I looked to the west and I saw huge overshooting cloud tops. I told my mom that today was going to be a dangerous severe weather day in Southern New England. Checking the radar before school started around 8, I saw a powerful line of thunderstorms in western New England moving east with hail reports. Little that I knew, that the hail was up to 4 inches in diameter. In my younger forecasting days, I had limited model data but the data that I had at the time indicated to me that this was going to be unusual setup. I saw alot of shear, a well mixed boundary layer, and high severe weather parameters. Around 10am or so, the line of thunderstorms moved into the Reading area and there was loud thunder and heavy rain. I checked the radar and satellite and saw clearing coming in from the west. When I saw the clearing sky, I upped my tornado threat to a 8/10 for central Southern New England. I told the kids in my class that a tornado will likely happen today in Western MA. They laughed and said “tornadoes don’t happen here”. As the afternoon went on, about 1 pm in my last class of the day I checked on the weather conditions in the region and I saw a tornado watch issued to our west I think in NY state. We had a entire afternoon of strong heating and destabilization of the atmosphere. Once school let out around 2 and on my way home closer to 3, I looked out to the west, and I saw massive cloud tops that I think were near 80 or so miles to my west from I-93 in Reading, MA. Once I got home, I tuned on the TV and then closer to 4, the tornado warnings started in western MA and it was several hours of live tornadoes on local TV stations like WHDH 7, NECN, WBZ, WCVB. At one point the EAS came on TV. That was insane for me who at the time was 16. It was impossible for me to do my homework that afternoon because of the severe weather and the excitement that I had of watching the TV meteorologist handle what was becoming a historic weather event locally. By time 10pm came, I remember the storms approached into Boston with a severe thundershower if I remember correctly. At this time I had to call it a day since I had school the next day.

Bob Yates – SKYWARN Spotter (Provided an additional photo from Brimfield from 6/1/11):
I volunteered for a few days delivering sandwiches and water from the church just after roads were cleared-

Eric Mikal Birkeland – SKYWARN Spotter:
The damage scar can still be seen by satellite after it snows.

Billy Doyle – SKYWARN Spotter:
I remember very well I was at Cracker Barrel in Sturbridge and a monson on call fire fighter was eating and his pager went off

Jeff Aborn – SKYWARN and Co-Op Observer – Provided Photos from the tornado path on the WX1BOX Tornado feed:
On the afternoon of June 1, 2011 an EF-3 tornado traveled 38 miles through parts of western & central Massachusetts. It caused damage in W Springfield, Monson, Brimfield, and Southbridge. Three lives were taken by the storm and 200 injuries. Jeff–Staffordville

We hope this remembrance makes people never forget what happened on June 1st 2011 and remind ourselves again that we must remain, prepared and vigilant especially here in New England where events such as June 1st can happen but on a low frequency basis. A June 1st 2011 video collage has been posted at our WX1BOX Video Youtube Channel with the direct link listed below as well as a June 1st 2011 tornado timeline video by SKYWARN Spotter Dan Butler. Also listed below is the NWS Massachusetts Tornado Summary, the NWS June 1st, 2011 Facebook Graphic, the ARRL Story on the June 1st Tornado Outbreak, the NWS Taunton June 1st Local Storm Report and the Raw Storm log from the WX1BOX Amateur Radio Station.

Amateur Radio SKYWARN Video – June 1st, 2011:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dBRGRQx9bI

Dan Butler SKYWARN Spotter – June 1st, 2011 – Springfield Massachusetts Tornado – Warning: Please note light profanity in this video as there are livewitness videos as part of the timeline:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yvp7NGsxruE

NWS Boston/Norton June 1st, 2011 Facebook Graphics:
https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=326947176276952&set=a.237876368517367
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/June-1st-2011-Massachusetts-Tornado-Outbreak_2022_infographic.jpg

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Reports 6/1/11:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/lsr_6_1_11.txt

NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement – Tornado Classifications from 6/1/11:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/PNS_Jun_1_2011_BOX_TOR.pdf

ARRL Story from 6/1/11 – Central Massachusetts Experiences Rare Tornado, Area Hams Hasten to Help:
http://www.arrl.org/news/central-massachusetts-experiences-rare-tornado-area-hams-hasten-to-help

NWS Boston/Norton-WX1BOX Raw Amateur Radio Storm Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/storm_reports.txt

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Special Announcement: Start of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Hello to all…

Wednesday June 1st, 2022 marks the start of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season is expected to be above normal per the NOAA/National Hurricane Center, Colorado State University and Penn State University outlooks among others. To mark the start of Atlantic Hurricane Season, NWS Boston/Norton has published a Public Information Statement with the names of the tropical systems for 2022 as well as some tropical cyclone history in Southern New England and tropical cyclone safety tips. Also, the National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center in Miami FL will issue advisories on named systems, Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches and Warnings when a system threatens a land area, Tropical Cyclone Updates on named systems and Tropical Weather Outlooks for potential areas of tropical cyclone development and have issued a summary of their product services and Atlantic storm names in their 8 AM Wednesday 6/1/22 Tropical Weather Outlook. The Public Information Statement and NHC tropical weather outlook from 8 AM EDT – Wednesday June 1st, 2022 Tropical Weather Outlook is listed in the link below:

https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/start_of_atlantic_hurricane_season_2022.pdf

It is noted that the threat of a hurricane to a land area in the Atlantic basin would cause the activation of WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio station at the National Hurricane Center, the Hurricane Watch Net on HF and the VoIP Hurricane Net on Echolink, IRLP and other VoIP modes. Web page resources for these groups are listed below:

WX4NHC – the Amateur Radio station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org/

Hurricane Watch Net:
https://hwn.org/

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://voipwx.net/

Please use this time to prepare if a tropical system were to affect Southern New England and remember that the timely reporting of severe weather conditions during tropical systems can save lives and property and the NWS Boston/Norton forecaster and Amateur Radio teams appreciate all your support!

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday Afternoon/Evening 5/31/22 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday Afternoon into early evening across Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut to the west of a backdoor cold front where western areas will remain warm and muggy and to the east of the backdoor cold front conditions are cooler and more stable. The position of this front and the ability for thunderstorms to form and break a cap to tap into favorable instability and shear profiles will be the key factors in isolated strong to severe thunderstorm coverage in Western New England..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather with the severe weather potential timeframe in the Tuesday mid to late afternoon into early evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor severe weather potential for this Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. This will only coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, Annual Station Test 2022 Report

WD4R-Julio Ripoll, Assistant WX4NHC Coordinator Writes:

WX4NHC Annual Station Test 2022 Report:

After 2 years of our dedicated volunteer Ham Radio Operators working remotely from our home stations due to Covid, we operate from inside NHC for our annual test event on May 28th. (All our Ops were fully Covid vaccinated.) This is our 42nd year of volunteer communication services for the National Hurricane Center. The Test event was successful as all our radios and antennas performed well. In 8 hours, we made 289 contacts nationwide and international using HF, VHF, UHF radios and digital communications modes. Thanks to all our volunteer Ops for their continued efforts and for all the stations worldwide that help during hurricanes.

WX4NHC Annual Communication Test
Saturday May 28th, 2022

9am-11am: WD4R Julio (NHC)
11am-1pm: N4JLK Lloyd (NHC)
1pm-3pm: WX2L Susie & WB4L Alan (NHC)
3pm-5pm: KG4USN Ken (Remote)

Happy Memorial Day and thank you to all who served and sacrificed for our freedom!

73, Julio – WX4NHC/WD4R

 

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Saturday 5/28/22 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible Saturday Afternoon into early evening any time between 12-6 PM across interior Southern New England along and north and west of the I-95 corridor. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued interior Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather along and north and west of the I-95 corridor..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Saturday Afternoon and Evening..

A frontal system will cross Southern New England Saturday afternoon into the early evening with the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The headlines depict the current thinking which is little changed from last night. Key factors that are also little changed from last night include:

1.) Morning showers and thunderstorms and their evolution into isolated strong to severe thunderstorms as the day progresses along with clearing behind this activity to allow for more isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to allow for heating and destabilization to increase instability levels.
2.) Cooling aloft in the atmosphere to also increase instability
3.) Overlap of instability with sufficient wind shear profiles to allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Saturday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday Afternoon and Early Evening 5/28/22 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible Saturday Afternoon into early evening any time between 12-6 PM across interior Southern New England along and north and west of the I-95 corridor. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has interior Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather along and north and west of the I-95 corridor..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Saturday Afternoon and Evening..

A frontal system will cross Southern New England Saturday afternoon into the early evening with the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Overnight showers and thunderstorms and their evolution to allow for clearing in the morning for heating and destabilization to increase instability levels.
2.) Cooling aloft in the atmosphere to also increase instability
3.) Overlap of instability with sufficient wind shear profiles to allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Saturday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Saturday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2022/day2otlk_20220527_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Heat & Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Sunday 5/22/22 Heat & Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Intense Heat & Humidity ongoing this weekend away from the east and south coastal areas so continue to use caution outdoors with any strenuous activities, drink plenty of uncaffeinated liquids and find locations to cool off if out in the heat and humidity for an extended period of the time. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM Sunday Evening for the entire NWS Norton Coverage area except for the East Slopes of the Berkshires, South Coastal Rhode Island and East and South Coastal Massachusetts for heat indices to 100 degrees. .
..There remains the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms on Sunday Afternoon and Evening in interior portions of Southern New England. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued most of Southern New England in a marginal risk of severe weather with areas of Western and Northwest Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut in a slight risk for severe weather for Sunday Afternoon and Evening. The greatest risk for severe weather is in the slight risk area and interior portions of Southern New England away from coastal Southern New England between 2-10 PM Sunday..
..Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats with any strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Sunday Afternoon and Evening..

Intense heat and humidity will affect Southern New England this weekend with heat advisories posted for most of the NWS Norton coverage area as posted in the headlines of the message. There remains the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday Afternoon and Evening in the slight risk of severe weather area in Western and Northwest Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut and interior portions of Southern New England. The headlines depict the current thinking. The main key factor in the severe weather potential for Sunday will be the forcing of the cold front timed close enough to peak heating of the day to take advantage of high instability and marginally sufficient wind shear that’s in place for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to develop along with some potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms earlier in the afternoon with a prefrontal trough tapping into to potentially good instability and marginally favorable wind shear in the earlier portions of the afternoon.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Sunday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message on Sunday’s severe weather potential as we shift to operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement and Graphics, Area Forecast Discussion and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory and Heat Indices Graphics:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/heat_advisory-1.png
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Max-Temp-May-22.png
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Heat-Index-Chart1.png

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Heat & Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Sunday Afternoon and Evening 5/22/22 Heat & Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Intense Heat & Humidity ongoing this weekend away from the east and south coastal areas so continue to use caution outdoors with any strenuous activities, drink plenty of liquids and find locations to cool off if out in the heat and humidity for an extended period of the time. A Heat Advisory is remains in effect through 8 PM Sunday Evening for the entire NWS Norton Coverage area except for the East Slopes of the Berkshires, South Coastal Rhode Island and East and South Coastal Massachusetts for heat indices to 99 degrees. .
..There remains the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms on Sunday Afternoon and Evening in interior portions of Southern New England. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed most of Southern New England in a marginal risk of severe weather with areas of Western and Northwest Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut in a slight risk for severe weather for Sunday Afternoon and Evening. The greatest risk for severe weather is in the slight risk area and interior portions of Southern New England away from coastal Southern New England between 2-10 PM Sunday..
..Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats with any strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Sunday Afternoon and Evening..

Intense heat and humidity will affect Southern New England this weekend with heat advisories posted for most of the NWS Norton coverage area as posted in the headlines of the message. There remains the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday Afternoon and Evening in the slight risk of severe weather area in Western and Northwest Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut and interior portions of Southern New England. The headlines depict the current thinking. The main key factor in the severe weather potential for Sunday will be the forcing of the cold front timed close enough to peak heating of the day to take advantage of high instability and marginally sufficient wind shear that’s in place for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to develop.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted on Sunday’s severe weather potential by 11 AM Sunday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement and Graphics, Area Forecast Discussion and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory and Heat Indices Graphics:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/heat_advisory.png
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/MaxT_SunMay22.png

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2022/day2otlk_20220521_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Heat & Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Heat Potential – Weekend of 5/21-5/22/22 – Severe Weather Potential Friday Night 5/20-Sunday 5/22/22

Hello to all…

..Intense Heat & Humidity is expected this weekend so use caution outdoors with any strenuous activities, drink plenty of liquids and find locations to cool off if out in the heat and humidity for an extended period of the time. There will also be the threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms on Sunday Afternoon and Evening in interior portions of Southern New England with a much lower chance of an isolated strong or possibly severe thunderstorm across Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts late tonight after 11 PM Friday Evening through 5 AM Saturday Morning..
..A Heat Advisory is now in effect from 8 AM Saturday to 8 PM Sunday for the entire NWS Norton Coverage area except for the East Slopes of the Berkshire, South Coastal Rhode Island and East and South Coastal Massachusetts for heat indices to 99 degrees..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of interior Southern New England in a marginal to slight risk of severe weather for Sunday Afternoon and Evening for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for overnight Friday and especially Sunday Afternoon and Evening..

Intense heat and humidity will affect Southern New England this weekend with heat advisories posted for most of the NWS Norton coverage area as posted in the headlines of the message. There are a couple chances for strong to severe thunderstorms with the greatest risk Sunday Afternoon and evening with a lower grade much more conditional risk overnight Friday Night.

For the Friday overnight potential, a mesoscale convective vortex or MCV is moving across Long Island and south of Long Island but is spreading heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms into Southern Connecticut. This is associated with the warm front which will move through the region overnight to bring the intense heat and humidity to the region. This complex along with instability moving in via an elevated mixed layer could bring a low chance of an isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorm over Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts late tonight into the overnight hours and this will be monitored via SKYWARN Self-Activation.

A better chance for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms exists on Sunday Afternoon and Evening as a cold front moves through the region with high instability and sufficient wind shear in place. The key factor in the coverage and intensity of the strong to severe thunderstorms on Sunday will be the timing of the cold front close enough to peak heating for the severe weather potential to be realized. This will be better known as we get closer to Sunday in future model runs. Portions of interior Southern New England are in a marginal to slight risk of severe weather per SPC.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for overnight Friday and especially Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted on Sunday’s severe weather potential by 11 PM Saturday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement and Graphics, Area Forecast Discussion and SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory and Heat Indices Graphics:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/heat_advisory.png
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Heat_Indices_Saturday.png
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Heat_Indices_Sunday.png

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2022/day3otlk_20220520_0730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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