Uncategorized – Page 9

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday Afternoon/Evening/Overnight 8/12/23 Severe Weather Potential

August 12, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut and are possible throughout the rest of Southern New England for late Saturday Afternoon through late Saturday Night. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut in a Slight risk for severe weather and the rest of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Saturday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely late Saturday Afternoon through Saturday Night. Pictures and videos of storm damage and flooding can be sent as a reply to this messages, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..

Several rounds of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible to likely across Southern New England with the greatest potential in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut but all areas should monitor. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Start time of severe weather. The start time range could be as early as 2-3 PM or as late as 7 PM so there is variance in the start time based on the various models.
2.) The severe weather potential could extend during the overnight hours including the threat for isolated tornadoes during this period as wind shear, jet dynamics and turning in the atmosphere compensate for the loss of daytime heating and actually increase through the evening and overnight hours.
3.) There will be several rounds of activity with the potential for 2 or 3 rounds of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms through the late afternoon/evening through the overnight hours.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely late Saturday Afternoon through Saturday Night. Pictures and videos of storm damage and flooding can be sent as a reply to this messages, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Another coordination message will be posted by 1230 PM Saturday Afternoon. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2023/day2otlk_20230811_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box
Subscribe on YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@wx1box-nwsboston-amateur-radio

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Thursday Evening 8/10/23-Friday Morning 8/11/23 – Severe Weather & Flood Potential

August 10, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Relentless severe weather and flood potential pattern continues for portions of Southern New England with next chance late Thursday Afternoon through early morning Friday particularly between around 6 PM Thursday Evening to 2 AM Friday Morning give or take an hour or two and the focus across Eastern New England. Additional chances for severe weather and flooding are possible this weekend into early next week and will be dealt with in future messages..
..The Storm Prediction Center has placed Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather for late Thursday afternoon into Friday Morning for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of strong to damaging winds and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding as the primary threats but an isolated tornado and/or waterspout is also possible..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect for Central and Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island from Thursday Afternoon into Friday Morning for rainfall of widespread 1-3″ with isolated higher amounts of 3-4″+ leading to urban, poor drainage, river and stream flooding particularly in areas hardest hit from Tuesday’s rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed this area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with likely be needed for severe weather, flood and rain gauge reports. Pictures and videos of storm damage and flooding can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..

Tuesday 8/8/23 was another impactful severe weather and flash flood event for the region. An EF1 Tornado occurred in Mattapoisett Mass and an EF0 Tornado in the Marstons Mills section of Barnstable, MA. Significant flash flooding also affected the region particularly in Northeast Massachusetts. We will summarize all the info in Thursday Morning’s coordination message.

Another round of severe weather and flooding could occurs in portions of Southern New England late Thursday Afternoon into Friday Morning. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The intensity of the storm system as models vary its intensity but some reliable guidance is indicating a deep low pressure system for this time of year that is more indicative of spring time than summer which would increase the severe weather, heavy rainfall and flood potential.

2.) The track of the storm as that will determine what areas get into the warm sector increasing the severe weather and isolated tornado potential. Right now that’s centered in the current marginal risk for severe weather area by SPC.

3.) Where the heaviest rainfall occurs and how it relates to areas hit hard by the Tuesday severe weather and flood event.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with likely be needed for severe weather, flood and rain gauge reports. Pictures and videos of storm damage and flooding can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Another coordination message will be posted by 1230 PM Thursday Afternoon. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=FFA&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2023/day2otlk_20230809_1730.html

WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook & Discussion:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Late Monday Night 8/7/23-Tuesday 8/8/23 – Severe Weather & Flood Potential

August 7, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..A risk for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms continues for the overnight hours Monday Night through Tuesday Morning with a second timeframe Tuesday mid-afternoon through early evening. Strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the primary threats with an isolated tornado or waterspout as the secondary threat. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed continued much of Southern New England in a Marginal risk for severe weather overnight Monday into Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential overnight Monday through Tuesday. Amateur Radio and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should have multiple ways to receive weather alerts given that some of this severe weather and flood potential will be possible during the overnight/nocturnal period where most people are sleeping..

There is a risk for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms during the overnight Monday Night to Tuesday Morning timeframe with a second more limited round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) Ability of jet dynamics, turning in the atmosphere and instability from very high dewpoints to compensate for other more limited instability parameters to allow for strong to severe thunderstorm development.
2.) The ability for the mesoscale factors of jet dynamics, turning in the atmosphere and high instability to overlap and maximize along with the formation of a triple point low which would increase the severe weather potential.
3.) Flooding from heavy downpours in thunderstorms depending on the intensity of the thunderstorms as they move through the area given still relatively wet conditions particularly in interior Southern New England.
4.) The morning convective potential will determine what occurs later Tuesday Afternoon into early evening. If the morning convection is significant, it will likely produce cloud debris and reduce the convective potential for later in the day Tuesday. if the morning convection is weaker or produces less cloud debris, the convective potential for later in the day would be present and would bear watching. At this time, the greater threat for severe weather appears to be the overnight to morning hours of Tuesday.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential overnight Monday through Tuesday. Amateur Radio and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should have multiple ways to receive weather alerts given that some of this severe weather and flood potential will be possible during the overnight/nocturnal period where most people are sleeping. This will be the last coordination message unless a significant update to the situation occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2023/day2otlk_20230807_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Late Monday Night 8/7/23-Tuesday 8/8/23 Severe Weather & Flood Potential

August 7, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..A risk for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms during the overnight hours Monday Night through Tuesday Morning with a second timeframe Tuesday mid-afternoon through early evening. Strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the primary threats with an isolated tornado or waterspout as the secondary threat. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a Marginal risk for severe weather overnight Monday into Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential overnight Monday through Tuesday. Amateur Radio and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should have multiple ways to receive weather alerts given that some of this severe weather and flood potential will be possible during the overnight/nocturnal period where most people are sleeping..

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential overnight Monday through Tuesday. Amateur Radio and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should have multiple ways to receive weather alerts given that some of this severe weather and flood potential will be possible during the overnight/nocturnal period where most people are sleeping. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Monday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Friday 8/4/23 Severe Weather and Flood Potential

August 4, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely particularly Friday mid-Afternoon through Friday Night and expanded a bit eastward through Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island but all areas should monitor. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and North-Central Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut into a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk through Northern Connecticut, Northwest Rhode Island and Northeast Massachusetts with an 80% chance for a severe thunderstorm watch for parts of the area..
..Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lighting and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats with the most focused severe weather potential timeframe between 3-10 PM Friday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential for Friday..

Another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely for this Friday Afternoon and Evening including an 80% chance for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern New England. The headlines depict current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) While less heating is expected than prior severe weather events we had in July, cooling aloft and other unfavorable severe weather parameters in July will be more favorable than those events in July and likely compensate for lack of heating.
2.) Wind shear profiles are marginally sufficient for severe thunderstorm development.
3.) Timing of the cold front will be reasonably timed for western areas to see isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms but maybe a bit later than peak heating in eastern areas and this will have to be monitored on how far east any strong to severe thunderstorms can progress into those areas.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential for Friday. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and Mesoscale Convective Discussion:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook & Mesoscale Convective Discussion:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1830.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday 8/4/23 – Severe Weather & Flood Potential

August 4, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible particularly late Friday Afternoon and Friday Night focused on Western and Central Massachusetts and Northwest and North-Central Connecticut but all areas should monitor. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and North-Central Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut into a marginal to slight risk for severe weather with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lighting and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential for Friday Morning into Friday Evening. Another more complete coordination message will be posted by 1130 AM Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2023/day2otlk_20230803_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Special Announcement: charter/hotmail/msn/outlook Email Addresses Blocked from Receiving SKYWARN Announcement Emails

August 2, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

This special announcement is being sent and posted on our website and social media feeds as well even though people with charter/hotmail/msn/outlook email addresses will not get this email directly. If you know a SKYWARN Spotter or Amateur Radio Operator who has a charter, hotmail, msn or outlook email address and are on the SKYWARN email list, please forward this message to them.

We are facing a problem where Microsoft is intentionally blocking all SKYWARN Announcement emails. This is despite our email administrator, N1XTB-Phil McNamara reaching out to Microsoft to have the block removal rejected. Our server and email list is not on any block list for spam and Phil insures email delivery is set to today’s IT standards but the server remains blocked by Microsoft.

For those affected, we recommend the following two items:
1.) Complain to Microsoft about this problem and tell them the following:
Allow traffic from IP:
96.230.52.20
the originating domain is oak.w1mv.org

2.) Subscribe an alternate email address as it may take considerable time to convince Microsoft to release the block off the email list.

If any Amateur Radio Operator or non-Amateur Radio Operator SKYWARN Spotter has contacts that might assist us in getting this block removed, please reach out to myself and N1XTB-Phil McNamara via email. Phil’s email is N1XTB@powersrvcs.com

We appreciate your patience on this issue and thanks to all of you for their support of the NWS Boston/Norton SKYWARN program!

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Saturday 7/29/23 Severe Weather and Flash Flood Potential

July 29, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..One more day of potential severe weather and flash flooding for portions of Southern New England Saturday Afternoon and Evening between 12-9 PM today..

..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued much of Connecticut, Rhode Island, Southwest, South-Central and Southeast Massachusetts along and south of the Mass Pike in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather for the rest of Southern New England north of the Pike. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban/poor drainage, river and stream flooding are the primary threat with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) continues all of Southern New England to a slight risk for excessive rainfall..

..A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire coverage area except through late Saturday Night for the entire NWS Norton coverage area except for Southern Rhode Island, Eastern Plymouth County and Cape Cod and the Islands for excessive rainfall leading to urban, poor drainage, river and stream flooding.

..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday to monitor the severe weather and flood potential. Pictures of storm damage, flooding and post storm reports can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feed or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..

On Saturday Morning, there was little in the way of thunderstorm activity but Block Island RI did get a severe thunderstorm with wind gusts as high as 74 MPH as reported by a sailboat on the island, trees down and some damage to a boat and dragging of a yacht in Block Island Harbor. Details on this event for Block Island RI are below:

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Saturday 7/29/23:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/LSR_Block_Island_7_29_23.pdf

WX1BOX Twitter Feed Block Island RI as relayed by Eweather13:
https://twitter.com/Eweather13/status/1685278886731382784?s=20
https://twitter.com/Eweather13/status/1685278886731382784?s=20
https://twitter.com/Eweather13/status/1685277795692220416?s=20
https://twitter.com/WX1BOX/status/1685268445015715841
https://twitter.com/Eweather13/status/1685226241413025792

Thursday 7/27/23 brought the most widespread severe weather event of the season to date to Southern New England. Just north of the NWS Norton coverage area, an EF1 Tornado occurred in Cheshire County NH from North Swanzey NH to Marlboro and Dublin NH. A WX1BOX Facebook Photo Album will be posted later this weekend/early next week on this severe weather event. Below are the WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log, NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report and the NWS Gray Maine Public Information Statement on EF1 tornado in the Dublin NH area:

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/reports_7_27_23.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/LSR_7_28_23.pdf

NWS Gray Maine Public Information Statement – EF1 Tornado in the Dublin NH area:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/PNS_GYX_Dublin_NH_Tornado_7_27_23.pdf

Another round of potential severe weather and flash flooding for portions of Southern New England for Saturday Afternoon and Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.)Shower activity over Southeast New York, Southwest Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut and impact on heating and how this progresses and whether it develops further as the cold front moves through the area later this afternoon an evening.
2.) Heating and destabilization overlapping sufficient wind shear profiles for strong to severe thunderstorm development.
3.) Timing of the triggering mechanism which is a cold front during or shortly after the time of peak heating.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday to monitor the severe weather and flood potential. Pictures of storm damage, flooding and post storm reports can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feed or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and WPC Day-1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=FFA&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2023/day2otlk_20230728_1730.html

WPC Day-1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook & Discussion:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Saturday 7/29/23 Severe Weather & Flood Potential

July 29, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..One more day of potential severe weather and flash flooding for portions of Southern New England Saturday Afternoon and Evening between 12-9 PM with a low risk of a strong to severe thunderstorm early Saturday Morning in Southeast New England..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued much of Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather for the rest of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban/poor drainage, river and stream flooding are the primary threat with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has upgraded all of Southern New England to a slight risk for excessive rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday to monitor the severe weather and flood potential. Pictures of storm damage, flooding and post storm reports can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feed or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook..

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/reports_7_27_23.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/LSR_7_28_23.pdf

NWS Gray Maine Public Information Statement – EF1 Tornado in the Dublin NH area:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/PNS_GYX_Dublin_NH_Tornado_7_27_23.pdf

Another round of potential severe weather and flash flooding for portions of Southern New England for Saturday Afternoon and Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) What, if any, morning convection occurs particularly over Southeast New England and any cloud debris that activity generates as well as how strong that convection is. If it forms, it would likely be garden variety but can’t rule out an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm.
2.) Heating and destabilization overlapping sufficient wind shear profiles for strong to severe thunderstorm development.
3.) Timing of the triggering mechanism which is a cold front during or shortly after the time of peak heating.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday to monitor the severe weather and flood potential. Pictures of storm damage, flooding and post storm reports can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feed or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 AM Saturday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2023/day2otlk_20230728_1730.html

WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook & Discussion:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday 7/29/23 – Severe Weather & Flash Flood Potential

July 28, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..One more day of potential severe weather and flash flooding for portions of Southern New England Saturday Afternoon and Evening between 12-9 PM timeframe with a low risk of a strong to severe thunderstorm early Saturday Morning in Southeast New England..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather for the rest of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban/poor drainage, river and stream flooding are the primary threat with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday with Amateur Radio Ops at NWS Boston/Norton possible Saturday Afternoon and Evening. A more complete coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Friday Evening including the summary of reports from the Thursday 7/27/23 severe weather event. Pictures of storm damage, flooding and post storm reports can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feed or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook & Discussion:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

Respectfully Submitted,

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