Uncategorized – Page 11

Post Storm/Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday Afternoon 7/9/23-Monday Evening 7/10/23 Flash Flood Event

July 11, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Significant flash flooding impacted portions of Western Connecticut, Western and Central Massachusetts, Northern Rhode Island in the Sunday Afternoon through Monday Evening with the highest impacts on Monday for Western and Central Massachusetts, and Northern Rhode Island on Monday. Even higher flash flooding impacts occurred in Vermont and parts of New Hampshire..
..Some area rivers will not crest until later today in portions of Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut. Any post storm final rain gauge reports, flood pictures/videos and damage will be helpful and can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit to the SKYWARN Spotter/Amateur Radio given unless otherwise indicated. This can include pictures/reports/damage from neighboring Vermont and New Hampshire to assist those areas as well. After a couple dry days Tuesday through Wednesday, more showers and thunderstorms could occur in the Thursday through Saturday period so the more data and pictures/videos of conditions, it will help understanding how future rainfall will impact area rivers and streams..
..Another post storm/severe weather coordination message will be posted by Wednesday Morning. Below is the log of all rain gauge and flood reports currently received, NWS Boston/Norton Public Info Statement and Local Storm Report on this event and a message from the US Army Corps of Engineers on a couple dams in the area..

WX1BOX Amateur Radio/Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotter Reports:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/reports_7_10_23.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/PNS_BOX_7_10_23.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/LSR_BOX_7_10_23.pdf

US Army Corps of Engineer Message on Ball Mountain Dam Townshend Dam:
https://www.nae.usace.army.mil/Missions/Recreation/Ball-Mountain-Lake/

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box
Subscribe on YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@wx1box-nwsboston-amateur-radio

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday-Tuesday AM 7/9/23-7/11/23 Flood & Severe Weather Potential

July 9, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Thunderstorms and heavy convective showers will bring a renewed threat of flooding and flash flooding particularly to Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut though all areas of Southern New England should monitor this potential. There is also a secondary threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and frequent lightning for Sunday Afternoon, Sunday Evening and on Monday..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect through Tuesday Morning for Northern Connecticut, Western and Central Massachusetts to include Berkshire, Hampshire, Hampden, Franklin, Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for rainfall of 2-4″ with isolated locations or an axis of rainfall that could be 5″ or more in areas that get thunderstorms and heavy rainfall that train over the same areas. This additional rainfall coupled with the rainfall of the last week could cause urban and poor drainage flooding as well as small river and stream flooding in this region..
..The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed much of the Flood Watch area and portions just east of the Flood Watch in a Slight to Moderate risk of excessive rainfall for Sunday through early Tuesday Morning..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has areas of extreme Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather Sunday and Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island in a marginal risk for severe weather for Monday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the flooding and severe weather potential Sunday through early Tuesday Morning. Picture of storm damage or flooding can be sent to our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter social media feeds, as a reply to this message or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter on the photos unless otherwise indicated..

An active weather pattern has resumed across the area. On Saturday, localized flash flooding occurred in parts of Western Massachusetts and in Suffield, CT. Reports from this event can be seen below:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/reports_7_8_23.pdf

The headlines depict the current thinking on the primary risk for flooding and flash flooding in the region with a secondary risk for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms later Sunday Afternoon through early Tuesday Morning. Key factors include:

1.) There will be an axis of very heavy rainfall potentially of 5″ or more within the more general area of 2-4″ rainfall in the Flood Watch area. Where that sets up will be fine-tuned in future updates. If this affects metro areas and areas that have had the heavy rainfall over the past week, that will create greater impacts for parts of the region for higher impact flooding of urban and poor drainage areas as well as smaller streams and rivers.
2.) For areas outside of the Flood Watch, this rainfall and axis of heavy rainfall could affect portions of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island depending on the low pressure system track and these areas should monitor, particularly those that were hit hard from early last week’s flash flooding and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and in metro areas more prone to urban and poor drainage flooding.
3.) The severe weather potential is a secondary threat but one that will also bear close watching. Instability will likely be less due to heavy rainfall and ongoing thunderstorms but wind shear profiles will be stronger and could compensate for less instability.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the flooding and severe weather potential Sunday through early Tuesday Morning. Picture of storm damage or flooding can be sent to our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter social media feeds, as a reply to this message or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter on the photos unless otherwise indicated. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Sunday Evening if time allows pending any ongoing flood and severe weather operations for later Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Below is the NWS Boston Norton Flood Watch Statement & Map, Rainfall Map, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, WPC Day-1 & Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlooks and SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement & Map:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=FFA&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/ffa.png

NWS Boston/Norton Rainfall Map:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/QPF.png

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

WPC Day-1 and Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlooks:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday Afternoon & Evening – 7/8/23 Flood & Severe Weather Potential

July 8, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Thunderstorms with frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding as a primary risk with a secondary risk for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds and hail are possible across Southern New England particularly for Western and Central Massachusetts along and west of the I-495 corridor, Northern Connecticut, and Northwest Rhode Island for this Saturday Afternoon and Evening..
..Additional thunderstorms with heavy rainfall, potential flooding concerns and an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm risk will continue for the Sunday Afternoon through early Monday Evening period as well and this will be detailed in future coordination messages. This is a similar pattern to what occurred on Sunday 7/2-Tuesday 7/4 time period..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the flooding and severe weather potential focusing on Saturday Afternoon and Evening to start and then Sunday into Monday time periods..

We are entering another active period of weather for Southern New England for the Saturday through Monday Evening timeframe. The headlines reflect current thinking with more details on the Sunday to Monday period to follow in future coordination messages. Key factors for today’s flooding and severe weather potential include:

1.) Thunderstorms and their ability to train over the same area and in areas that received heavier rainfall earlier this week will dictate the level of flooding concerns. This is especially true if the thunderstorms train over urbanized metro areas.
2.) Ability for instability to overcome low wind shear values for any stronger to isolated severe thunderstorms to form over the area and the potential for isolated wet microburst wind damage.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the flooding and severe weather potential focusing on Saturday Afternoon and Evening to start and then Sunday into Monday time periods. Another coordination message will be posted on the Sunday to Monday flooding and severe weather potential by 11 PM Saturday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday July 4th 2023 Severe Weather and Flood Potential

July 4, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Happy Independence Day/4th of July to all SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators. An active period of weather continues a time of many outdoor activities for the July 4th Independence Day holiday in Southern New England..
..On Monday Evening into Tuesday Morning, localized areas of Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut received another 1-4″ of rainfall with the hardest hit areas over Southeast Hartford into Tolland Counties of Connecticut and Northwest Hampshire into West-Central Franklin Counties of Massachusetts. Additional Thunderstorms and heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Southern New England particularly along and south of the Mass Pike today though all areas should monitor..
..The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms has decreased with heavy rainfall, urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning as the main threat for thunderstorms late Tuesday Morning through Tuesday Evening but an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the region as a secondary threat. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has pulled the region out of marginal risk as any severe thunderstorms will be quite isolated but thunderstorms with heavy downpours and frequent lightning can occur in parts of Southern New England today..
..A Flood Watch is in effect through Late Tuesday Night for Northern Connecticut, Providence County RI, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Hampshire, Eastern Hampden, Worcester, North-Central Middlesex, Western Norfolk and Northern Bristol Counties of Massachusetts for excessive rainfall causing flash flooding in areas that receive persistent heavy downpours and thunderstorms and in areas that receive these persistent heavy downpours and thunderstorms that also had heavy rainfall from Sunday 12 AM through Tuesday Morning. The Flood Watch for Western Essex County has been canceled..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the flood and isolated severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening..

An active period of weather continues for the July 4th Independence Day holiday. On Sunday through early Monday Morning, a swath of 2-4″ rainfall with isolated higher amounts occurred across Western, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut with 0.50-2″ rainfall amounts across the remainder of Northern Connecticut and into parts of Norfolk, Middlesex and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts. Rhode Island received the least rainfall and Southeast Massachusetts had between 0.10-1.2″ of rain with the higher amounts in Western Cape Cod. A detailed list of rainfall reports, flood reports and isolated severe thunderstorm wind damage can be seen here:

NWS Norton Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio Spotter Reports Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/reports_7_2_23_7_3_23.pdf

NWS Norton Public Information Statement – Precipitation Reports:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/PNSBOX_7_3_23_Rainfall.pdf

On Monday Evening into Tuesday Morning, localized areas of Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut received another 1-4″ of rainfall with the hardest hit areas over Southeast Hartford into Tolland Counties of Connecticut and Northwest Hampshire into West-Central Franklin Counties of Massachusetts.The following is a report focused on this information and will be updated later this morning and posted as a post message regarding the heavy rainfall and localized flooding over the past few days:

https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/reports_7_3_23.pdf

For July 4th, the severe weather potential has lessened and the main threat from thunderstorms is frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out but any coverage of severe weather will be quite isolated compared to the heavy rainfall, flooding and lighting potential. Key factors for today include:

1.) Amount of sunshine for heating and destabilization for today with ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity. Lessening shear and cloud cover is reducing the severe weather potential but thunderstorms with frequent lighting and heavy downpours remain possible in the region particularly along and south of the Mass Pike.
2.) Flooding will be contingent on whether the same areas get hit hard repeatedly with heavy downpours or if the heavy downpours occur in areas that have received significant rainfall from the early Sunday Morning to Tuesday Morning period
3.) Despite the severe weather potential lessening, flooding from heavy rainfall is a concern along with frequent lightning which could affect outdoor events.
4.) Not all areas will see a thunderstorm today. Some locations will and could see significant impacts while other locations may not see any activity. Staying weather aware and monitoring future forecasts, watches and warnings if doing outdoor events will be key to insuring safety and to make the right decisions regarding continuing with outdoor events.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the flood and severe weather potential for Tuesday. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch statement, Area Forecast, Discussion, and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=FFA&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday Afternoon and Evening 7/3/23 & Tuesday Afternoon & Evening 7/4/23 Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential

July 3, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..An active period of weather during a time of many outdoor activities for the July 4th Independence Day holiday in Southern New England..
..On Sunday through early Monday Morning, a swath of 2-4″ rainfall with isolated higher amounts occurred across Western, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut with 0.50-2″ rainfall amounts across the remainder of Northern Connecticut and into parts of Norfolk, Middlesex and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts. Rhode Island received the least rainfall and Southeast Massachusetts had between 0.10-1.2″ of rain with the higher amounts in Western Cape Cod..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely particularly from the Mass Pike of Massachusetts South through Southeast Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut for later Monday Afternoon and Evening between 2-11 PM EDT. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the area along and south of the Mass Pike in a marginal risk for severe weather but all areas of Southern New England should monitor this potential and thunderstorms with frequent lightning are possible in various locations across the region through not all areas may get thunderstorms on Monday..
..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible to likely again particularly from the Mass Pike of Massachusetts south through Southeast Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut for Tuesday Afternoon and evening between 12-8 PM EDT and SPC has placed this area in a marginal risk for severe weather but again all areas of Southern New England should monitor for thunderstorm and isolated severe weather potential though again not all locations will receive a thunderstorm..
..The primary threat with thunderstorms over the next two days is strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lighting and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and flooding in areas that received heavy rainfall early Sunday Morning through Monday Morning..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect through Late Tuesday Night for Northern Connecticut, Northwest Providence County RI, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Hampshire, Eastern Hampden, Worcester, North-Central Middlesex, and Western Essex Counties for excessive rainfall causing flash flooding in areas that receive persistent heavy downpours and thunderstorms and in areas that receive these persistent heavy downpours and thunderstorms that also had heavy rainfall from Sunday 12 AM through Monday Morning..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening and Tuesday Afternoon and Evening..

An active period of weather over the next 48 hours for the July 4th Independence Day holiday. On Sunday through early Monday Morning, a swath of 2-4″ rainfall with isolated higher amounts occurred across Western, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut with 0.50-2″ rainfall amounts across the remainder of Northern Connecticut and into parts of Norfolk, Middlesex and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts. Rhode Island received the least rainfall and Southeast Massachusetts had between 0.10-1.2″ of rain with the higher amounts in Western Cape Cod. A detailed list of rainfall reports, flood reports and isolated severe thunderstorm wind damage can be seen here:

NWS Norton Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio Spotter Reports Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/reports_7_2_23_7_3_23.pdf

NWS Norton Public Information Statement – Precipitation Reports:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/PNSBOX_7_3_23_Rainfall.pdf

Over the next two days, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible to likely particularly in the areas along and south of the Mass Pike but all areas should monitor this potential. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Amount of sunshine for heating and destabilization for Monday Afternoon and Evening. This is looking to be tracking to forecast with clearing over much of Southern New England as of 1130 AM this morning.
2.) Ability for thunderstorms to fire near or shortly after the time of peak heating today to allow them to become strong to severe and maximize instability given wind shear profiles that are marginal
3.) Flooding will be contingent on whether the same areas get hit hard repeatedly with heavy downpours or if the heavy downpours occur in areas that have received significant rainfall from the early Sunday Morning to Monday Morning period
4.) Tuesday’s timeframe and amount of coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms will hinge on lingering cloud cover from Monday convection to clear out to allow heating and how convective trends evolve for late Monday Afternoon and Evening
5.) Regardless of whether severe criteria in the form of damaging winds and large hail occurs, flooding from heavy rainfall is a concern along with frequent lightning which could affect outdoor events.
6.) Not all areas will see a thunderstorm over the next couple of days. Some locations will and could see significant impacts while other locations may not see any activity. Staying weather aware and monitoring future forecasts, watches and warnings if doing outdoor events will be key to insuring safety and to make the right decisions regarding continuing with outdoor events.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening and Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted no later than 1130 AM Tuesday Morning and could be posted later Monday Evening depending on operations for the expected Monday Afternoon and Evening strong to severe thunderstorms. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch statement, Area Forecast, Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=FFA&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Monday 6/26/23 Through Early Tuesday Morning 6/27/23 Severe Weather Potential

June 26, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday Afternoon and Evening with a second round possible late Monday Night into early Tuesday Morning across much of interior Southern New England particularly in Southwest Rhode Island, Connecticut and Western and Central Massachusetts west of the I-495 corridor with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats.
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued the Marginal Risk for severe weather for Monday Afternoon and Evening for the area mentioned above which is a bit further west than last night’s message. The threat timeframe is anytime between 12-6 PM for the first round of activity with the second round timing a bit more uncertain and could be after 9 PM Monday Evening through about 7 AM early Tuesday Morning from a complex thunderstorms that will come in from the west and southwest and move east and northeast into Southern New England..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening and overnight self-activation ops are possible for the complex of thunderstorms moving in from the west and southwest into Southern New England..

A convective forecast with lower than normal confidence for the region as an upper level low continues to cause unsettled weather across Southern New England. Current Doppler Radar shows convective showers and thunderstorms in Southern New England and Southeast New York and this activity will continue through late afternoon/early evening. A few of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe. There will be a bit less heating than yesterday over the region but wind shear levels are slightly stronger. Heavy downpours and localized urban/poor drainage flooding is also possible.

After this activity, there could be a lull in the early evening hours and then a complex of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected across New York and the Mid-Atlantic states will spread into Southern New England during the late evening and overnight hours. This activity should be after 9 PM and maybe closer to the 12-1 AM through 7 AM timeframe. Typically, thunderstorms will lose their strength with loss of daytime heating but forcing, wind shear, what instability is left and possibly some cooling aloft from the thunderstorm complex may allow this complex to produce another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across the region and this will be monitored.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening and overnight self-activation ops are possible for the complex of thunderstorms moving in from the west and southwest into Southern New England. If time allows based on daytime and early evening operations, another coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Monday Evening on the overnight severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday 6/25/23 Severe Weather Potential

June 26, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday Afternoon and Evening across much of interior Southern New England particularly in Rhode Island, Connecticut and Massachusetts north and west of Cape Cod and the Islands with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather for Monday Afternoon and Evening. The threat timeframe is anytime between 12-9 PM Monday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening. Another more complete coordination message will be posted by 12 PM Monday. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2023/day2otlk_20230625_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather & Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend Coordination Message #6 – Sunday 6/25/23

June 25, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all..

..The following is the sixth and final in a series of messages on Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend and providing information on the weather during this period. This is a tradition spanning over 20 years for Amateur Radio Operators involved with Field Day and the NWS Boston/Norton SKYWARN Program..
..For Sunday, there remains a greater risk for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours as the main threats. The timeframe of severe weather potential has pushed a bit earlier and could start as early as 12 PM and continue through about 3-5 PM. This could now affect the last few hours and takedown of Field Day sites but again coverage will be isolated to scattered so some Field Day sites could see a thunderstorm but others will not see this activity. The area with the greatest potential is now from the Connecticut/Rhode Island/Mass border north into Northern New England but all locations should monitor..
..Any thunderstorms have lightning potential which is a safety hazard for all Amateur Radio Field Day sites. Amateur Radio Field Day sites are encouraged to guard their local Amateur Radio SKYWARN frequency and have multiple ways to receive weather alerts during the course of this Field Day weekend including by cell phone/Internet and NOAA Weather Radio..
..Conditions will be warm and very humid through Sunday. While there are low clouds and fog across Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts, that will burn off in these areas and there is already strong clearing and heating already occurring across Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts. This will create greater instability and a better threat for thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and lightning hazards as well as isolated strong to severe thunderstorms..
..Temperatures Sunday will range between the Upper-70s to low 80s in coastal areas to the mid to upper 80s in interior areas and dewpoints in the low 70s will create very humid conditions. Be sure to drink plenty of liquids and guard against heat exhaustion especially during Amateur Radio Field Day setup and takedown..
..Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend is an annual event where Ham Operators across the United States setup at Emergency Operations Centers, field locations, home locations etc. to operate and test their equipment and skills and make as many radio contacts as possible during the weekend..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions throughout Field Day weekend and activate as needed to guard Amateur Radio Field Day sites to provide weather information as well as to gather reports meeting SKYWARN reporting criteria throughout this weekend..

Here are some links to information on these Amateur Radio Field Day Sites from across the region.

Amateur Radio Field Day Information: https://www.arrl.org/field-day
Amateur Radio Field Day National Locator: https://www.arrl.org/field-day-locator
Eastern Massachusetts Field Day Home Page: https://ema.arrl.org/field-day/
Eastern Massachusetts Field Day Directory: https://ema.arrl.org/field_day/

For the remainder Amateur Radio Field Day weekend, the greatest risk for thunderstorms and isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential will be Sunday from early Afternoon into Evening. The headlines of this message give the current thinking and coverage area. Key factors for Sunday include:

1.) Significant heating is already occurring in Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts and this should spread into Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts as low clouds and fog burn off by mid-morning.
2.) Position of a trigger in the atmosphere to set off what should become an unstable atmosphere with the heating of the day. Right now that’s a weak front best positioned from around the Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts border and points north into Northern New England but all areas should monitor the thunderstorm potential.
3.) Wind shear values are low but amount of instability and the triggering mechanism may allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms and a greater coverage for non-severe thunderstorms with lightning risk. Thunderstorm coverage will be isolated to scattered so some Field Day sites could see a thunderstorm but others will not see this activity.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions throughout Field Day weekend and activate as needed to guard Amateur Radio Field Day sites to provide weather information as well as to gather reports meeting SKYWARN reporting criteria throughout this weekend. Below are links to the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

Amateur Radio Field Day sites are encouraged to bring a NOAA All-Hazards Weather Radio, monitor various cell phone weather apps where Amateur Operators may have those available and have a dedicated Ham Radio that can monitor their local SKYWARN frequency for their area as a best safety and preparedness practice as there is a threat for thunderstorm development and any thunderstorm can be a threat to the safety of Amateur Radio Field Day sites. Also sites that have mobile Internet capability can utilize that capability as a way to monitor for weather information. With Mobile Internet capability, utilizing Echolink to monitor the New England Reflector system on Echolink Conference *NEW-ENG3* Node: 9123/IRLP 9123 would be helpful as well. Please see the link below for the latest SKYWARN Frequency information for the region:
https://wx1box.org/southern-new-england-skywarn-frequency-list/

During setup and takedown of Amateur Radio Field Day sites and even while operating, be sure to drink plenty of fluids and eat accordingly. The link below features information on Heat Safety:
https://www.weather.gov/safety/heat

With the thunderstorm threat for this weekend, now is the time to remind folks that lightning is a threat to any and all Amateur Radio Field Day sites. Remember your lightning safety tips and details on lightning safety can be seen at the following link and we have also added a link from this week’s NWS Boston/Norton Lightning Safety Awareness Week and Public Information Statements on Lightning Safety. See links below:
https://www.weather.gov/safety/lightning
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/lightning_safety_awareness_PNS_2023-1.pdf

This is the final Amateur Radio Field Day weekend coordination message for Field Day 2023. We hope the Amateur Radio community participating in Field Day has a great weekend!

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather & Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend Coordination Message #5 – Saturday 6/24/23-Sunday 6/25/23

June 24, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all..

..The following is the fifth in a series of messages on Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend and providing information on the weather during this period. This is a tradition spanning over 20 years for Amateur Radio Operators involved with Field Day and the NWS Boston/Norton SKYWARN Program..
..2023 Field Day weekend, unlike the past few years, will have the potential for showers, thunderstorms and isolated severe weather. Not every Field Day site will see a shower, thunderstorm or severe weather and a widespread washout is not expected. Some Field Day sites could be dry all weekend but other Field Day sites could be quite wet depending on where showers and thunderstorms develop..
..Widespread rainfall amounts of a trace to 1″ occurred across Southern New England with isolated 1″+ amounts in portions of Southwest Massachusetts, North-Central Connecticut and Central Rhode Island per Amateur Radio and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotter reports..
..As of 545 PM Saturday Evening, Doppler Radar showed showers and heavier downpours were scattered across the North Shore of Massachusetts with lighter isolated showers in Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. The threat for thunderstorms and any lightning hazards is minimal and will end after sunset and the current rain showers and isolated heavier downpours in the region will also wane after sunset as well. Any thunderstorm threat for the remainder of Saturday will be very isolated and severe weather is highly unlikely..
..For Sunday, there remains a greater risk for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours as the main threats with the timeframe of severe weather potential as Field Day ends around and after 2 PM and could affect the takedown of Field Day sites that take place after 2 PM through 9 PM Sunday Evening. The area with the greatest potential is across Western and Central Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island but all locations in Southern New England should monitor..
..Any thunderstorms have lightning potential which is a safety hazard for all Amateur Radio Field Day sites. Amateur Radio Field Day sites are encouraged to guard their local Amateur Radio SKYWARN frequency and have multiple ways to receive weather alerts during the course of this Field Day weekend including by cell phone/Internet and NOAA Weather Radio..
..Conditions will be warm and very humid through Sunday. Temperatures will range between the mid-70s in coastal areas to the Upper 70s to mid 80s in interior areas depending upon how much heating occurs each day. Dewpoints in the low 70s will create very humid conditions. Be sure to drink plenty of liquids and guard against heat exhaustion especially during Amateur Radio Field Day setup and takedown..
..Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend is an annual event where Ham Operators across the United States setup at Emergency Operations Centers, field locations, home locations etc. to operate and test their equipment and skills and make as many radio contacts as possible during the weekend..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions throughout Field Day weekend and activate as needed to guard Amateur Radio Field Day sites to provide weather information as well as to gather reports meeting SKYWARN reporting criteria throughout this weekend..

Here are some links to information on these Amateur Radio Field Day Sites from across the region.

For the remainder Amateur Radio Field Day weekend, the greatest risk for thunderstorms and isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential will be Sunday Afternoon and Evening with any isolated thunderstorm threat for Saturday ending after sunset. The headlines of this message give the current thinking and coverage area. Here is a breakdown of the hazards by each day:

Saturday Evening:
The headlines currently cover ongoing shower and isolated heavy downpour activity. The threat of a thunderstorm with lightning is low and will wane completely after sunset.

Sunday Afternoon and Evening:
This time period still has the higher severe weather potential as there will be more sun and daytime heating Sunday Morning through mid-afternoon which will heat things up more than on Saturday along with high humidity and that will allow for another round of showers and isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours as the main threats as we get towards Sunday Afternoon and Evening around or after 2 PM as Field Day operations wind down and equipment takedown takes place. Again, the activity will be isolated to scattered and not all areas will see a shower or thunderstorm. The area with the greatest potential is across Western and Central Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island but all locations in Southern New England should monitor.

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

The final Amateur Radio Field Day weekend coordination message will be posted by 10 AM Sunday Morning. We hope the Amateur Radio community participating in Field Day has a great weekend!

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather & Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend Coordination Message #4 – Saturday 6/24/23-Sunday 6/25/23

June 24, 2023 Rob Macedo

Hello to all..

..The following is the fourth in a series of messages on Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend and providing information on the weather during this period. This is a tradition spanning over 20 years for Amateur Radio Operators involved with Field Day and the NWS Boston/Norton SKYWARN Program..
..2023 Field Day weekend, unlike the past few years, will have the potential for showers, thunderstorms and isolated severe weather. Not every Field Day site will see a shower, thunderstorm or severe weather and a widespread washout is not expected. Some Field Day sites could be dry all weekend but other Field Day sites could be quite wet depending on where showers and thunderstorms develop..
..As of 830 AM Saturday Morning, showers and embedded thunderstorms are covering Western and Central Massachusetts and Rhode Island with the heaviest activity in Central Rhode Island in a north-south line moving Northeastward. This activity will spread into Eastern Massachusetts over the next 1-2 hours and will last through early afternoon. Following this activity, drier weather should occur starting late Morning in Western Massachusetts and Connecticut and spread eastward by early afternoon Saturday followed by additional but more isolated showers and thunderstorms for Saturday mid-afternoon thru early evening.
..Severe Weather potential is low for Saturday with frequent lightning and heavy downpours as the primary threat but if more instability develops than expected for Saturday afternoon, it would increase the severe weather potential. Regardless, any lightning in the vicinity of a Field Day site is a safety concern..
..For Sunday, there is a greater risk for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours as the main threats with the timeframe of severe weather potential as Field Day ends around and after 2 PM and could affect the takedown of Field Day sites..
..Any thunderstorms have lightning potential which is a safety hazard for all Amateur Radio Field Day sites. Amateur Radio Field Day sites are encouraged to guard their local Amateur Radio SKYWARN frequency and have multiple ways to receive weather alerts during the course of this Field Day weekend including by cell phone/Internet and NOAA Weather Radio..
..Conditions will be warm and very humid Saturday through Sunday. Temperatures will range between the mid-70s in coastal areas to the Upper 70s to mid 80s in interior areas depending upon how much heating occurs each day. Dewpoints in the low 70s will create very humid conditions. Be sure to drink plenty of liquids and guard against heat exhaustion especially during Amateur Radio Field Day setup and takedown..
..Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend is an annual event where Ham Operators across the United States setup at Emergency Operations Centers, field locations, home locations etc. to operate and test their equipment and skills and make as many radio contacts as possible during the weekend..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions throughout Field Day weekend and activate as needed to guard Amateur Radio Field Day sites to provide weather information as well as to gather reports meeting SKYWARN reporting criteria throughout this weekend..

Here are some links to information on these Amateur Radio Field Day Sites from across the region.

For Amateur Radio Field Day weekend, unlike past years, there will be thunderstorm potential throughout the entire period particularly in the afternoon and evening period from Saturday to Sunday but some lightning hazard potential also exists for this Saturday Morning. The headlines of this message give the current thinking and coverage area. Here is a breakdown of the hazards by each day:

Saturday Morning through Saturday Evening:
The headlines currently cover ongoing shower and embedded heavier downpours and thunderstorm activity moving through Southern New England this Saturday Morning through early afternoon and how drier conditions will occur from west to east from late Saturday Morning through early Saturday Afternoon. More isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the mid-afternoon through early evening before dissipating with the loss of daytime heating. The additional isolated showers and thunderstorms are conditional based on how much heating we get as this initial Saturday Morning shower and thunderstorm activity moves out of the region and if enough instability is generated with enough of a triggering mechanism for this activity to develop.

Sunday Afternoon and Evening:
This time period still has the higher severe weather potential as there will be more sun which will heat things up more than on Saturday and allow for another round of showers and isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours as the main threats as we get towards Sunday Afternoon and Evening around or after 2 PM as Field Day operations wind down and equipment takedown takes place. Again, the activity will be isolated to scattered and not all areas will see a shower or thunderstorm. The Sunday Morning through early afternoon period is currently expected to be dry, warm and humid.

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

The next Amateur Radio Field Day weekend coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Saturday Evening. We hope the Amateur Radio community participating in Field Day has a great weekend!

Respectfully Submitted,

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