Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Saturday 7/29/23 Severe Weather & Flood Potential

Hello to all…

..One more day of potential severe weather and flash flooding for portions of Southern New England Saturday Afternoon and Evening between 12-9 PM with a low risk of a strong to severe thunderstorm early Saturday Morning in Southeast New England..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued much of Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather for the rest of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban/poor drainage, river and stream flooding are the primary threat with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has upgraded all of Southern New England to a slight risk for excessive rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday to monitor the severe weather and flood potential. Pictures of storm damage, flooding and post storm reports can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feed or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook..

Thursday 7/27/23 brought the most widespread severe weather event of the season to date to Southern New England. Just north of the NWS Norton coverage area, an EF1 Tornado occurred in Cheshire County NH from North Swanzey NH to Marlboro and Dublin NH. A WX1BOX Facebook Photo Album will be posted later this weekend/early next week on this severe weather event. Below are the WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log, NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report and the NWS Gray Maine Public Information Statement on EF1 tornado in the Dublin NH area:

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/reports_7_27_23.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/LSR_7_28_23.pdf

NWS Gray Maine Public Information Statement – EF1 Tornado in the Dublin NH area:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/PNS_GYX_Dublin_NH_Tornado_7_27_23.pdf

Another round of potential severe weather and flash flooding for portions of Southern New England for Saturday Afternoon and Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) What, if any, morning convection occurs particularly over Southeast New England and any cloud debris that activity generates as well as how strong that convection is. If it forms, it would likely be garden variety but can’t rule out an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm.
2.) Heating and destabilization overlapping sufficient wind shear profiles for strong to severe thunderstorm development.
3.) Timing of the triggering mechanism which is a cold front during or shortly after the time of peak heating.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday to monitor the severe weather and flood potential. Pictures of storm damage, flooding and post storm reports can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feed or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 AM Saturday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2023/day2otlk_20230728_1730.html

WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook & Discussion:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
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