Page 123 – WX1BOX – Amateur Radio Station at NWS Boston/Norton

Storm Coordination Message #1 – Weekend Major Winter Storm Potential

January 20, 2016 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Uncertainty remains over the potential for a weekend major winter storm over portions of Southern New England. The greatest risk for potential Heavy Snow, Strong to Damaging Winds and Coastal Flooding is over southern portions of Southern New England including most of Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts with the Boston area on the northern fringe of significant impacts as well as areas such as the Hartford Connecticut area. As is typically the case with intense, major winter storms, there will be a sharp cutoff in the northern extent of significant winter weather..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible this weekend including the potential for overnight operations depending on the storm track. Additional coordination messages will have more info and clarity on the storm situation. The next coordination message will be posted either late Wednesday Evening or early Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion which had an excellent synopsis of the model uncertainty, Hazardous Weather Outlook and the NWS Taunton Facebook Infographics on the potential major winter storm..

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html (Latest Discussion)
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1601201211.fxus61.html (Wednesday Morning Model Discussion)

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Facebook Infographic Set 1:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/a.178319238929122.42608.122106561217057/934918959935809/?type=3&theater

NWS Taunton Facebook Infographic Set 2:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.934815453279493/934813263279712/?type=3&theater

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Wind/Storm Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday 1/19/16 Strong Wind Potential

January 19, 2016 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Advisory level snow fell across much of Eastern and Central Massachusetts and Rhode Island overnight Sunday into early Monday Morning. Strong wind gusts of 40-50 MPH occurred across portions of Southern New England especially higher terrain and along the coast while wind gusts of 50-55 MPH on Outer Cape Cod occurred Monday Mid-Afternoon and Monday Night. These strong will continue through much of Tuesday and may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Wind Advisory is in effect through 7 PM Tuesday for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage area for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH likely. Isolated higher wind gusts are also possible in some parts of the NWS Taunton coverage area..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong wind potential across the region Tuesday. This will likely be the only coordination message on the strong wind potential unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs and time allows for an updated coordination message..
..We again note the potential for a major winter storm for the weekend time period. Computer models continue to indicate this potential but we are still several days away from the details. Coordination Messages could be posted as we get into the latter portions of this week if the trend continues..
..Below is the NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement for Tuesday’s strong winds and the Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Late Sunday Evening 1/17/16-Monday Morning 1/18/16

January 18, 2016 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Accumulating Snow over Eastern New England tonight through Monday Morning..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through 10 AM Monday for Windham County Connecticut, Eastern Massachusetts including Cape Cod and Worcester County but not the islands and all of Rhode Island except for Block Island for 2-4″ of snow. There is a chance for higher snow amounts in portions of the Winter Weather Advisory area..
..Strong winds are expected on Tuesday and may require a Wind Advisory for portions of Southern New England..
..Finally, there is the possibility of a major weekend winter storm but its still roughly 5 days out and much could change between now and this weekend..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor storm conditions and for snowfall totals tonight through Monday Morning for the accumulating snow event in Eastern New England..

A coastal storm will track well offshore of Southern New England but a trough associated with the coastal storm will bring a light accumulating snowfall. The headlines of this coordination message depict the expected snowfall but there is a possibility of a band of heavier snowfall of around 4-5″ with possibly a few higher amounts greater than 5″ within the Winter Weather Advisory area. This could be either in parts of Southeast Massachusetts Cape Cod or in parts of the North Shore area. This will depend on exact positioning of the trough associated with the coastal storm. SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm conditions and for snowfall totals during this period.

It is noted that there is the potential for strong winds on Tuesday as Arctic air moves into the area and this may require a Wind Advisory for portions of Southern New England. Future coordination messages most likely starting Monday Evening will detail the potential on these strong winds for Tuesday.

Finally, there have already been some discussion and mentions via social media and media outlets regarding a potential major winter storm this weekend. While there is this potential, it is over 5 days out and much could change between now and this weekend regarding this potential system. Coordination messages for this system could occur if the potential remains as we get into the later portions of this week.

Again, SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor storm conditions and for snowfall totals tonight through Monday Morning for the accumulating snow event in Eastern New England. This will be the last coordination message on snowfall from the Sunday Evening to Monday Morning snowfall unless a significant change to the storm conditions occur and time allows for an updated coordination message. A coordination message will be sent by Monday Evening regarding the potential for strong winds for Tuesday. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, and Snow Total and Probability Graphics:

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snow Amount and Probability Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Late Friday Evening 1/15/16-Saturday 1/16/16 Storm Potential

January 16, 2016 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Quick Hitting Coastal Storm System will affect Southern New England with the potential for a wintry mix in northwestern interior areas, heavy rainfall at the coast and the potential for wind gusts to 40 MPH across Southeast Coastal New England. Overall forecast confidence in the storm scenario is lower than normal for this short time range..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 11 PM Friday Evening through Noon Saturday for Franklin, Northern Worcester, Northern Middlesex, Western Hampden and Western Hampshire Counties of Massachusetts for 1-4″ of wet snow snow and a trace to one-tenth of an inch of ice with the highest snow and ice amounts in the highest elevations. Given the lower confidence forecast its possible that higher snowfall amounts potentially as much as 6″ could occur and it would be a heavy wet snow and if that occurs, it could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. Much will depend on how fast any rain/freezing rain changeover to wet snow in the advisory area occurs..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 11 PM Friday Evening through Noon Saturday for Eastern Hampden, Eastern Hampshire, Southern Worcester, Central Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for a trace to one-tenth inch of ice and possibly a coating to inch of snow. Given the lower confidence forecast, its possible that higher snow and ice amounts could occur and will be monitored..
..The rest of Southern New England is likely to see 1-2″ of rainfall from this storm system and this might cause isolated pockets of urban and poor drainage flooding. Portions of Southeast Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands could see wind gusts to 40 MPH, Given the lower confidence forecast, there could be stronger winds but the lack of a cold high pressure to the north of the coastal storm is expected to limit strong wind potential..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for precipitation type changeover, snow, ice, rain totals and strong wind gusts and any wind damage..

A quick hitting coastal storm system will affect Southern New England late tonight through early afternoon Saturday. The headlines of the coordination message depict the current thinking on this storm system. Confidence on snow and ice amounts is lower than normal for this time range given marginal temperatures but a coastal storm track that would normally produce more snow for Southern New England. This will bear close monitoring as if enough wet snow and/or ice accumulates in the Winter Weather Advisory area, particularly northern and western areas, there would be the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. The other question will be the strength of the winds at the coast. These winds should be sub-advisory given the lack of a pressure gradient given no high pressure to the north of the coastal storm but it will bear watching. Rainfall totals are higher confidence for this forecast.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for precipitation type changeover, snow, ice, rain totals and strong wind gusts and any wind damage. This will likely be the only coordination message for this storm system given the timing in the late tonight through early Saturday Afternoon timeframe unless time allows and a significant upgrade to the situation occurs or Ops at NWS are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory, Hazardous Weather Outlook and snow/ice amount and probability graphics.

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snow/Ice Amount and Probability Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

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Storm Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday 1/13/16 Strong Wind Potential

January 13, 2016 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Tuesday Evening’s Snow Squalls caused a widespread coating to 3″ of snow and there were thunderstorms with small hail along the Southeast Coast of Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts. Focus now turns to strong winds starting overnight through Wednesday Afternoon..
..A Wind Advisory is in effect for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage area from 1 AM-5 PM Wednesday for sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with wind gusts to 45-50 MPH. These winds will cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the wind conditions from 6-8 AM. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 8 AM through mid-afternoon Wednesday for wind damage reports. This will be the last coordination message for the wind situation for Wednesday. Below is the NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Snow Squall Potential Tuesday 1/12/16 and Strong Wind Potential Late Tuesday Night 1/12/16 into Wednesday 1/13/16

January 12, 2016 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..A period of snow and snow squalls will affect interior Southern New England including Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island during the evening hours including the evening commute. Accumulations of 1-2″ are likely in most locations but a few localized areas could see 2-4″ of snow where heavier snow squalls occur. Across the coastal plain and Southeast New England, mostly rain or a rain/snow mix will occur. Precipitation will end by around midnight..
..Strong Winds potentially near wind advisory levels are possible late tonight through early Wednesday Afternoon as a coastal system takes shape in the Gulf of Maine. The storm formation location will spare Southern New England a major snowfall but could bring strong winds to the region..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this situation. Another coordination message will be issued by 1100 PM this evening regarding the strong wind potential for later tonight into early Wednesday Afternoon. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement on the Snow Squall Potential, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Snowfall Maps..

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement – Snow Squall/Period of Snow Potential:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snow Amount and Probability Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

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Storm Coordination Message #3 – Sunday 1/10/16 Storm Potential

January 10, 2016 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Strong Storm System on track for the region bringing mild/record high temperatures, widespread heavy rainfall of 1-2.5″ with isolated higher amounts in a roughly 6 hour period which could lead to urban and poor drainage flooding and the threat of strong to damaging winds..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 11 AM Sunday Morning to 7 PM Sunday Evening for Eastern Essex, Barnstable and Nantucket Counties for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH. A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 9 AM Sunday Morning to 7 PM Sunday Evening for the remainder of Eastern Massachusetts including Martha’s Vineyard, Southeast Providence, Kent, Bristol, Washington, Newport Counties of Rhode Island and Block Island Rhode Island for sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with gusts to 45-55 MPH. These winds could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..After coordination with NWS Taunton, SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this storm system this morning through this evening..

A strong but warm storm system will affect Southern New England on Sunday. A widespread heavy rainfall of 1-2.5″ with isolated higher amounts in a 6 hour period could cause pockets of urban and poor drainage flooding. The headlines of the coordination message reflect the latest thinking on the potential strong to damaging wind threat. The key item regarding the strength of the winds will be how warm temperatures get and the ability of the very strong winds aloft to get to the surface. Any convective showers or thunderstorms or a fine line of convection that develops will also help to bring strong winds down to the surface. Currently, the strongest winds are expected across Eastern Massachusetts and Central and Southern Rhode Island but some wind gusts to 40 MPH could occur in interior locations especially the higher terrain. Also, after the rain area moves through and we move into the late afternoon/early evening, there is an outside chance of strong thunderstorms across Western/Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut that could have strong winds and possibly even hail but this will be contingent on how much mid-level drying occurs and if there is significant mid-level drying, that would mitigate any strong thunderstorm development.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm system this morning through this evening. This will be the last coordination message on the Sunday storm system. Below is the NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Facebook Infographics:

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Facebook Inforgraphics:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.929715450456160/929715137122858/?type=3&theater

Respectfully Submitted,

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Storm Coordination Message #2 – Sunday 1/10/16 Storm Potential

January 10, 2016 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..No significant change this update. A more significantly updated coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Sunday Morning..
..Strong Storm System will bring mild/record high temperatures, widespread heavy rainfall of 1-2″ with isolated higher amounts in a roughly 6 hour period which could lead to urban and poor drainage flooding and the threat of strong to damaging winds..
..A High Wind Watch remains in effect from 9 AM Sunday Morning through Sunday Evening for Eastern Kent, Bristol and Washington Counties of Rhode Island and Eastern Essex, Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with wind gusts to 50 to potentially 60 MPH possible. Wind Advisories may required for much of the rest of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area. These winds could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely on Sunday with Ops at NWS Taunton possible..

A strong but warm storm system will affect Southern New England on Sunday. A widespread heavy rainfall of 1-2″ with isolated higher amounts in a 6 hour period could cause pockets of urban and poor drainage flooding. The headlines of the coordination message reflect the potential strong to damaging wind threat. The key item regarding the strength of the winds will be how warm temperatures get and the ability of the very strong winds aloft to get to the surface. Any convective showers or thunderstorms or a fine line of convection that develops will also help to bring strong winds down to the surface. Wind gusts to 50 MPH are likely with the potential for wind gusts to 60 MPH less likely but possible especially in any convective showers or thunderstorms.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Sunday with Ops at NWS Taunton possible. A more significantly updated coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Sunday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Facebook Infographics:

NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Facebook Inforgraphics:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.929436963817342/929436687150703/?type=3&theater

Respectfully Submitted,

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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Sunday 1/10/16 Storm Potential

January 9, 2016 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Strong Storm System will bring mild temperatures, widespread heavy rainfall of 1-2″ with isolated higher amounts in a roughly 6 hour period which could lead to urban and poor drainage flooding and the threat of strong to damaging winds..
..A High Wind Watch is in effect from Sunday Morning through Sunday Evening for Eastern Kent, Bristol and Washington Counties of Rhode Island and Eastern Essex, Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with wind gusts to 50 to potentially 60 MPH possible. Wind Advisories may required for much of the rest of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area. These winds could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely on Sunday with Ops at NWS Taunton possible..

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Sunday with Ops at NWS Taunton possible. Another coordination message will be issued by 1000 PM Saturday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Facebook Infographics:

NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Facebook Inforgraphics:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.929151887179183/929150640512641/?type=3&theater

Respectfully Submitted,

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Ocean Effect Snow Coordination Message #2 – Monday Evening 1/4/16-Tuesday AM 1/5/16

January 5, 2016 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Ocean Effect Snow caused very slippery travel in portions of the South Shore of Massachusetts (Eastern Plymouth County Mass) with many accidents reported in the Duxbury to Plymouth, Mass area. Additional light snow accumulations are possible in this area through Cape Cod and Nantucket..
..A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through 7 AM Tuesday for Cape Cod and Nantucket for 2-4″ of snow. East Coastal Plymouth County Massachusetts could see a coating to 2 inches of snow with isolated higher amounts. Other areas of East and South Coastal Massachusetts could see a Dusting to 1 inch of snow..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor light ocean effect snow accumulations into Tuesday Morning. All snow amounts including totals under 2″ would be helpful to discern accumulations in the narrow bands of ocean effect snow which could allow for a wider variance of snow amounts depending on where the narrow heavier bands setup. This will be the last coordination message on this event. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Snowfall Map..

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snow Amount and Probability Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

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