Hello to all..

..Heavy Rainfall and possibly strong winds will affect portions of Southern New England Wednesday Evening through Thursday Morning..
..A Flood Watch is in effect Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday Morning for Hillsborough County NH and Essex, Middlesex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Suffolk, North-Central Bristol and North-Central Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts. Widespread 1.5-2.5″ of rainfall with isolated higher amounts to 4″ are likely in the Flood Watch area. This could result in urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly some small stream/river flooding..
..Strong wind gusts of up to and around 40 MPH coupled with the heavy rainfall may result in isolated pockets of minor wind damage in parts of the flood watch area especially near the coast..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this time period for potential flooding reports and any isolated wind damage reports. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible if flooding issues are widespread enough..

An upper level storm system and coastal low has set the stage for the potential for heavy rainfall and strong winds over portions of Southern New England. The headlines of this note indicate the potential issues with the storm system over the NWS Taunton coverage area. SKYWARN Self-Activation will be likely to monitor this time period for to monitor for potential flooding reports and any isolated wind damage reports. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible if flooding issues are widespread enough. Another coordination message will be posted Wednesday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement and NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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Hello to all..

..Heavy convective showers and thunderstorms today and tonight will pose the threat of urban and poor drainage flooding and a widespread rainfall of 1-2″ inches with higher amounts possible. These convective showers and thunderstorms will also have the potential to bring strong to possibly damaging winds to the surface over portions of Southern New England with isolated to scattered pockets of wind damage possible..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely today and tonight to monitor conditions in the region. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible if flooding and/or any pockets of wind damage are widespread enough in the region..

At 520 AM, Doppler Radar was showing a conveyor of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms over Eastern New York and extreme Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut through Long Island and New Jersey and extending several hundred miles offshore. The area of rainfall was moving from southeast to Northwest while expanding eastward off the coastal waters. Heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms will encompass much of Western New England within the NWS Taunton Coverage area after 7 AM today lasting through mid afternoon and then spread eastward in the mid-afternoon to the evening hours. Widespread 1-2″ of rainfall will higher amounts will be possible in areas where heavy rain is able to train over the same locations. This could result in urban and poor drainage flooding. In addition, there will be strong winds aloft and this may allow for isolated to scattered pockets of wind damage where the heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms are able to drag those winds down to the surface.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely today and tonight to monitor conditions in the region. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible if flooding and/or any pockets of wind damage are widespread enough in the region. This will be the only complete coordination message on today’s storm. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all..

..Significant 100 MPH microburst impacts Easthampton, Mass early Wednesday Morning around 500 AM. An additional significant straightline wind damage event impacted the Joy road area of Colrain Mass during a similar timeframe Wednesday Morning with many trees down and homes and cars damage. Any pictures of damage from these areas or from other areas that were hard hit can be sent as a reply to this message or sent to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..
..An updated post severe weather coordination message may be sent out if new information and pictures becomes available. Below are damage pictures from Easthampton and Southampton, Mass, the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report and NWS Taunton Public Information Statement..

NWS Taunton Facebook Photo Album – Easthampton, Mass Microburst:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.860070037360349.1073741851.216287391738620&type=1

NWS Taunton Facebook Photo Album – Southampton, Mass Wind Damage:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.860092350691451.1073741852.216287391738620&type=1#

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – Easthampton MA Microburst:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nous41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nwus51.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible to likely over much of Southern New England early Wednesday Morning from 2-10 AM. Strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats but an isolated tornado as a secondary threat cannot be ruled out. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a 5% severe weather risk through midday Wednesday..
..SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators are encouraged to set their NOAA All Hazards Radio or any cell phone applications that can alert them to warnings during the overnight period. There is some uncertainty with this severe weather potential for early Wednesday Morning but there are concerns for severe weather potential during a time period when many will be sleeping or getting ready to start their work day and start their morning commute. Keep your situational awareness high during this period by taking these steps..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 6-10 AM for Southern Bristol County Massachusetts and South Coastal Rhode Island for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide caused by strong southerly winds and an extended southerly fetch may cause minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Wednesday Morning over South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 2 AM Wednesday Morning likely lasting through around 10-11 AM..

A somewhat unusual setup for severe weather is still expected over the region overnight into Wednesday Morning. There hasn’t been many changes to the latest model runs regarding the severe weather setup. Given the time of day this event is occurring, SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators are encouraged to set their NOAA All Hazards Radio or any cell phone applications that can alert them to warnings during the overnight period. There is some uncertainty with this severe weather potential for early Wednesday Morning but there are concerns for severe weather potential during a time period when many will be sleeping or getting ready to start their work day. Keep your situational awareness high during this period by taking these steps.

Southern New England will be in the warm sector and a strong cold front will move into the region overnight through Wednesday Morning. Despite the cold front coming through during overnight hours into Wednesday Morning which is typically an unfavorable time of day for severe weather potential, wind shear values will be very strong. Instability levels will not be terribly strong but models are indicating the potential for just enough instability for a potential low-topped squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms or a short line or two of strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats but a secondary threat for an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out if the storms are more discreet in nature and don’t end up in a line configuration. The threat timeframe is currently expected to be after 2 AM Wednesday Morning through 10-11 AM Wednesday Morning. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a 5% severe weather risk through midday Wednesday.

The uncertainty in the overnight severe weather potential will be with how much instability is truly realized despite the unfavorable time of day and if the mesoscale processes can tap into the very strong winds aloft. The instability and mesoscale processes will determine whether the event is more heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms with strong wind gusts causing isolated pockets of wind damage versus a threat for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms producing more concentrated and more significant areas of damage via a squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms with the possibility of an isolated tornado. The situation bears close watching as models suggest a stronger severe weather scenario.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 6-10 AM for Southern Bristol County Massachusetts and South Coastal Rhode Island for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide caused by strong southerly winds and an extended southerly fetch may cause minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Wednesday Morning over South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 2 AM Wednesday Morning likely lasting through around 10-11 AM. This will be the last coordination message on this potential severe weather threat. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement on the severe weather potential, NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and the SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement – Severe Weather Potential:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1410072237.wwus81.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible to likely during the overnight hours Tuesday Night into early Wednesday Morning over much of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats but an isolated tornado as a secondary threat cannot be ruled out. Threat timeframe is after 2 AM Wednesday Morning through about 10-11 AM Wednesday Morning..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed South Coastal New England in a Slight Risk of Severe Weather through 800 AM Wednesday Morning and much of the area in a 5% severe weather risk through midday Wednesday..
..Strong southerly winds and an extended southerly fetch may cause minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Wednesday Morning over South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible though given the timeframe this may be handled via self-activation..

A somewhat unusual setup for severe weather is expected over the region overnight into Wednesday Morning. Southern New England will be in the warm sector and a strong cold front will move into the region overnight through Wednesday Morning. Despite the cold front coming through during overnight hours into Wednesday Morning which is typically an unfavorable time of day for severe weather potential, wind shear values will be very strong. Instability levels will not be terribly strong but models are indicating the potential for just enough instability for a potential low-topped squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms or a short line or two of strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats but a secondary threat for an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out if the storms are more discreet in nature and don’t end up in a line configuration. The threat timeframe is currently expected to be after 2 AM Wednesday Morning through 10-11 AM Wednesday Morning. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed South Coastal New England in a Slight Risk of Severe Weather through 800 AM Wednesday Morning and much of the area in a 5% severe weather risk through midday Wednesday.

Strong southerly winds and an extended southerly fetch may cause minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Wednesday Morning over South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island. A Coastal Flood Advisory or Coastal Flood Statement may be issued in later forecasts depending on the extent of this threat to coastal areas for the Wednesday Morning high tide.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible though given the timeframe this may be handled via self-activation. Another coordination message will be posted by 930 PM Tuesday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement on possible minor coastal flooding for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island Wednesday Morning and the SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement – Minor Coastal Flooding for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all..

..A Cold front will bring heavy showers and possibly a few embedded thunderstorms. Wind shear values aloft are strong with turning in the atmosphere but instability parameters are extremely weak. There is a very low probability that a thunderstorm or two may become strong to severe and produce strong to damaging wind gusts..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the potential for today. This will be the only coordination message on today’s severe weather potential unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Hello to all..

..Despite Dry Antecedent Conditions over the past 2 months, portions of Southeast New England could see heavy rainfall in a short period of time with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and basement flooding issues in areas that potentially receive heavy rainfall..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect for Bristol, Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket Counties from 5 PM Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday Morning. Localized heavy rainfall amounts of 3″ or more are possible in the watch area within an area of 1-2″ of rainfall. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur during the overnight hours..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the threat for heavy rainfall and flooding in Southeast New England late this afternoon through Thursday Morning..

An upper level low pressure system will tap into moisture over the Atlantic Wednesday Afternoon into Thursday Morning. This will set the stage for potential heavy rainfall across Southeast Massachusetts. While conditions have been dry over Southeast Massachusetts for the last 2 months, the potential of heavy rainfall of 3″ or more in localized areas and that rain falling in a relatively short period of time will potentially result in urban/poor drainage and basement flooding in some locations. A Flood Watch is now in effect for Bristol, Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket Counties from 5 PM Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday Morning. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur during the overnight hours.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the threat for heavy rainfall and flooding in Southeast New England late this afternoon through Thursday Morning. This will be the only coordination message on this potential event unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all..

There will be a change in forecast area responsibilities for Cheshire and Hillsborough Counties in New Hampshire. Effective December 3rd, 2014 at 800 AM EST/1300 UTC, the National Weather Service will transfer all warning and forecast responsibilities including management of the SKYWARN program for Cheshire and Hillsborough Counties in New Hampshire from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Taunton, Massachusetts to the National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Office in Gray, Maine. The following Public Information Statement via the link below discusses the change in NWS Forecast Products for watches, warnings, advisories and statements for Cheshire and Hillsborough Counties of New Hampshire:

http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_9_23_14.txt

From a SKYWARN program perspective, discussions will take place in the coming months with the Amateur Radio SKYWARN Coordinators in New Hampshire, NWS Gray Maine SKYWARN Amateur Radio Coordinators, NWS Taunton SKYWARN Amateur Radio Coordinators and Meteorologists who are the NWS Gray and Taunton SKYWARN Program Leaders to assure a proper transition of reporting and SKYWARN Training to the NWS Gray, Maine office. Our Amateur Radio team will continue to support reporting flow for Cheshire and Hillsborough Counties of New Hampshire up through 12/3/14 and if reports after that period come into our station, all data will be forwarded to the NWS Gray Maine Office as required. SKYWARN Training sessions for Cheshire and Hillsborough Counties New Hampshire will be driven out of the NWS Gray Maine Office beginning in 2015.

Another update/reminder on this change will be posted in the mid-late November 2014 timeframe with an update on the SKYWARN side of this change as well. Amateur Radio and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters in Cheshire and Hillsborough Counties of New Hampshire can remain on this SKYWARN email list after the transition of the forecast responsibilities to the Gray Maine office and if needed, we can look at carrying some NWS Gray Maine severe/winter weather products for Southern New Hampshire in Coordination Messages. Thanks to all for their support of the NWS SKYWARN program!

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all..

There will be a SKYWARN training class on Saturday September 27th, 2014 from 10 AM-1 PM in Brockton, MA. No preregistration is required. The details are listed below:

Saturday September 27th, 2014: 10 AM-1 PM:
Brockton Main Library
304 Main Street
Brockton, MA
Taught by: Amateur Radio Coordinator
Registration: None Required

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all..

..Severe Weather Outbreak occurred across Southeast New Hampshire and Northern Massachusetts on Saturday Afternoon/Evening with two Tornado Warnings issued (Northeast Franklin and Northwest Worcester County and Southern Hillsborough County New Hampshire, Northern Middlesex and West-Central Essex Counties of Massachusetts)..
..Significant Wind Damage occurred in Ipswich Massachusetts from an 80-90 MPH microburst per Ipswich EMA and Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters in the area and confirmed by NWS Taunton. Damage in the Hollis NH area as well as the Bernardston/Leyden Massachusetts area also confirmed to be microbursts..
..Other significant damage areas were in the Lowell/Dracut/Lawrence/Methuen/North Andover Mass area with isolated wind damage into Warwick and Northfield..
..Any pictures or reports of damage even delayed to this point can be sent to pics@nsradio.org or as a reply to this post severe weather coordination message. Credit will be given to the spotter who took the pictures..
..This will be the last post severe weather coordination message on this outbreak. The Facebook album may be updated with additional pictures over the course of this week. Below is the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report, Public Information Statement, Amateur Radio SKYWARN Storm Log and a WX1BOX Facebook Album of Photos..

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/lsr_9_6_14.txt

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – NWS Taunton Survey:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_9_7_14.txt

Amateur Radio SKYWARN Storm Log:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/reports_9_6_14.txt

WX1BOX Facebook Album of Photos:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.841272352573451.1073741849.216287391738620&type=3

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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