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Severe Weather and Tropical Storm Arthur Coordination Message #4 – Wednesday 7/2/14-Saturday Morning 7/5/14 Severe Weather Potential

July 3, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms affected portions of Western Massachusetts, Western Connecticut and Southern New Hampshire Wednesday Afternoon and Early Evening. Weather Pattern will remain active Thursday through Friday and possibly into Saturday Morning with several days of severe weather and flood to flash flood potential and the potential for some possible impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur or Arthur’s interaction with a cold front that will move through the region..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely Thursday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England. Strong to Damaging Winds, Hail, and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding or flash flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has now placed Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut in a Slight Risk for severe weather for Thursday with much of the rest of Southern New England in a 5% probability for severe weather Thursday. As we get into late Thursday Night and Friday, possibly extending into Saturday Morning, impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur and his interaction with a cold front, could cause additional heavy rainfall and flood to flash flood potential across portions of Southern New England with exact locations for impact uncertain..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Thursday around or after noon. It appears that SKYWARN Activation will be needed Friday for the potential of heavy rainfall and flooding to flash flooding with a cold front moving through the area and potential of moisture from Tropical Storm Arthur interacting with this cold front. Interests in the region, particularly Southeast New England, should closely monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Arthur as there remains some uncertainties in his specific track..

After a relatively quiet stretch of weather over the past few weeks, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms affected portions of Southern New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut Wednesday Afternoon. Below is the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report detailing the events from Wednesday Afternoon:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report – Wednesday Afternoon 7/2/14 Severe Weather Event:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1407022217.nwus51.html

The weather will remain active Thursday through Friday and possibly into the Saturday Morning timeframe. Hot and humid conditions will prevail over the region over the next few days. A Cold Front continues to gradually approach Southern New England from the west and will continue to affect our region Thursday. Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms will likely refire by late morning/early afternoon in Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut and will likely have a better chance to extend eastward across much of Southern New England. Strong to Damaging Winds, Hail, and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding or flash flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has now placed Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut in a Slight Risk for severe weather for Thursday with much of the rest of Southern New England in a 5% probability for severe weather Thursday. The extent of the severe weather threat will be contingent on any potential thunderstorms overnight given activity in Eastern New York late this evening and any cloud cover. If sufficient heating and destabilization can occur, wind fields would be sufficient for at least isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm activity across much of Southern New England.

As we get into late Thursday Night and Friday, possibly extending into early Saturday Morning, impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur and the interaction of the approaching cold front could potentially lead to what is known as a ‘predecessor rainfall event’ also known as a PRE which could result in the potential for widespread heavy rainfall in the axis of where this event take place. It is unclear where this axis will setup across the region or if it stays south of our area. It is also unclear when this event will occur but it is looking more like the late Thursday Night into Friday timeframe.

In terms of the exact track of Tropical Storm Arthur, the track currently brings Arthur around the 40 North/70 West Benchmark. While this track would keep the strongest winds south and east of Southern New England, the interaction of this system with the cold front and its transition to a post tropical system could change the impacts of this system on the region. In addition, the cone of uncertainty on the track guidance extends as far north as Southeast New England. It is also noted that model agreement on the track is not as strong as yesterday with some reliable models being much further offshore with Arthur while other models bring Arthur closer to Southern New England. In addition, the closest pass of Arthur to Southern New England will likely take place late Friday Night into Saturday Morning which is still approximately 3 days away. As the system organizes and continues its movement northward, model tracks should become more certain as we get into the Thursday Afternoon to Friday Morning timeframe. Interests in Southern New England, particularly Southeast New England, should monitor the track of Tropical Storm Arthur as well as how this system interacts with the cold front as we get into the timeframe of impact late this week.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Thursday around or after noon. It appears that SKYWARN Activation will be needed Friday for the potential of heavy rainfall and flooding to flash flooding with a cold front moving through the area and potential of moisture from Tropical Storm Arthur interacting with this cold front. The next complete coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Marine Weather Statement, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and links to latest National Hurricane Center products on Tropical Storm Arthur:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Tropical Storm Arthur NHC Advisory and Graphical Information:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Tropical Storm Arthur Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Arthur Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather and Tropical Storm Arthur Coordination Message #3 – Wednesday 7/2/14-Saturday Morning 7/5/14 Severe Weather Potential

July 2, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Weather Pattern still expected to be active Wednesday Evening through Friday and possibly into Saturday Morning with several days of severe weather and flood to flash flood potential and the potential for some possible impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur or Arthur’s interaction with a cold front that will move through the region..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely Wednesday Evening in Western New England from Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut and across much of Southern New England on Thursday. Strong to Damaging Winds, Hail, and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding or flash flooding are the main threats. As we get into later Thursday and Friday, possibly extending into Saturday Morning, impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur and his interaction with a cold front, could cause additional heavy rainfall and flood to flash flood potential across portions of Southern New England with exact locations for impact uncertain. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continued to have a Slight Risk for severe weather over portions of Western New England for Wednesday and much of Southern New England in a 5% probability for severe weather Thursday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Wednesday Evening and Thursday. It is too early to say whether any SKYWARN Activation will be needed late this week for any impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur and his interaction with the cold front..

After a relatively quiet stretch of weather over the past few weeks, the weather will turn active as we get into Wednesday Evening through Friday and possibly into the Saturday Morning timeframe. Hot and humid conditions will prevail over the region over the next few days. A Cold Front will be gradually approaching Southern New England from the west and will begin to affect our region Wednesday Evening. This will likely bring the first round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms starting in Western New England Wednesday Evening. Strong to damaging winds, large hail and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a Slight Risk for severe weather across portions of Western New England for Wednesday. This area covers Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut.

Even without this event, the approaching cold front has the potential for another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for Thursday to much of Southern New England with strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding as the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a 5% probability for severe weather Thursday for much of Southern New England.

In terms of the exact track of Tropical Storm Arthur, the track currently brings Arthur around the 40 North/70 West Benchmark. While this track would keep the strongest winds south and east of Southern New England, the interaction of this system with the cold front and its transition to a post tropical system could change the impacts of this system on the region. In addition, the cone of uncertainty on the track guidance extends as far north as Southeast New England. It is also noted that model agreement on the track is not as strong as yesterday with some reliable models being much further offshore with Arthur while other models bring Arthur closer to Southern New England. In addition, the closest pass of Arthur to Southern New England will likely take place late Friday Night into Saturday Morning which is still approximately 4 days away. As the system organizes and continues its movement northward, model tracks should become more certain as we get into the Thursday Afternoon to Friday Morning timeframe. Interests in Southern New England should monitor the track of Tropical Storm Arthur as well as how this system interacts with the cold front as we get into the timeframe of impact late this week.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Wednesday Evening and Thursday. It is too early to say whether any SKYWARN Activation will be needed late this week for any impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur and his interaction with the cold front. A shortened coordination message focused on Wednesday’s severe weather potential will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated for Wednesday. The next complete coordination message will be posted by 1130 PM Wednesday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Marine Weather Statement, SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks and links to latest National Hurricane Center products on Tropical Storm Arthur:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Tropical Storm Arthur NHC Advisory and Graphical Information:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Tropical Storm Arthur Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Arthur Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather and Tropical Storm Arthur Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday Evening 7/2/14-Saturday Morning 7/5/14 Severe Weather Potential

July 2, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Weather Pattern still will turn active Wednesday Evening through Friday and possibly into Saturday Morning with several days of severe weather and flood to flash flood potential and the potential for some possible impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur or Arthur’s interaction with a cold front that will move through the region..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday Evening in Western New England and across much of Southern New England on Thursday. Strong to Damaging Winds, Hail, and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding or flash flooding are the main threats. As we get into later Thursday and Friday, possibly extending into Saturday Morning, impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur and his interaction with a cold front, could cause additional heavy rainfall and flood to flash flood potential across portions of Southern New England with exact locations for impact uncertain. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western New England in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather for Wednesday and much of Southern New England in a 5% probability for severe weather Thursday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday Evening and Thursday. It is too early to say whether any SKYWARN Activation will be needed late this week for any impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur and his interaction with the cold front..

After a relatively quiet stretch of weather over the past few weeks, the weather will turn active as we get into Wednesday Evening through Friday and possibly into Saturday Morning. Hot and humid conditions will prevail over the region over the next few days. A Cold Front will be gradually approaching Southern New England from the west and will begin to affect our region Wednesday Evening. This could bring the first round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms starting in Western New England Wednesday Evening. Strong to damaging winds, large hail and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western New England in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather for Wednesday.

As we get into Thursday and Friday, possibly extending into early Saturday Morning, impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur and the interaction of the approaching cold front could potentially lead to what is known as a ‘predecessor rainfall event’ also known as a PRE which could result in the potential for widespread heavy rainfall in the axis of where this event take place. It is unclear where this axis will setup across the region or if it stays south of our area. Even without this event, the approaching cold front has the potential for another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for Thursday to much of Southern New England with strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding as the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a 5% probability for severe weather Thursday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday Evening and Thursday. It is too early to say whether any SKYWARN Activation will be needed late this week for any impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur and his interaction with the cold front. The next coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Marine Weather Statement, SPC Day-2 and Day-3 Convective Outlooks and links to latest National Hurricane Center products on Tropical Storm Arthur:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Tropical Storm Arthur NHC Advisory and Graphical Information:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Tropical Storm Arthur Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Arthur Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Amateur Radio Field Day Weather Coordination Message #2

June 28, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..The following is the second and final message in a series of messages on Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend and providing information on the weather during this period. This is a tradition spanning over 12 years for Amateur Radio Operators involved with Field Day and the NWS Taunton SKYWARN Program..
..For the first time in a number of years, there is no threat for thunderstorms over the course of Field Day Weekend. Weather Conditions should be quite pleasant for Field Day Operations with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s and low humidity. Operators and people setting up Amateur Radio Field Day sites should assure they drink plenty of liquids but beyond that it should be an excellent weekend weather wise for this event..
..Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend is an annual event where Ham Operators across the United States setup at Emergency Operations Centers, field locations, home locations etc. to operate and test their equipment and skills and make as many radio contacts as possible during the weekend. Many locations can be visited by the public and Amateur Radio Field Day can be a form of outreach to Ham and non-Ham Operators. It is also noted that several states have given proclamations to Amateur Radio/Ham Radio Operators for either an ‘Amateur Radio Day or Amateur Radio Week’ during the month of June or an ‘Amateur Radio Month’ for this month. It is both a fun/preparatory event for Ham Radio Operators for Emergency Communications scenarios..
..No SKYWARN Activation or Ops at NWS Taunton are expected during the 2014 Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend..

There are a large number of Amateur Radio Field Day sites across the NWS Taunton Coverage Area and adjacent NWS Coverage Areas. Here are some links to information on these Amateur Radio Field Day Sites from across the region:

Amateur Radio Field Day Information: http://www.arrl.org/field-day
Amateur Radio Field Day National Locator: http://www.arrl.org/field-day-locator
Eastern Massachusetts Field Day Home Page: http://fd.ema.arrl.org/

The Charlestown and Westerly RI EOC’s will be active with their Field Day at Ninigret Park in Charlestown, RI. Their site will be open to the public during normal park hours in the daytime. There operation will be the full 24 hours.

For the first time in a number of years, the 2014 Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend will feature gorgeous summer weather with high temperatures on Saturday in the lower 80s except 75-80 degrees at the coast and high temperatures in the 80s on Sunday. Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 60s.

During setup and takedown of Amateur Radio Field Day sites and even while operating, be sure to drink plenty of fluids and eat accordingly. Also having a jacket or sweatshirt during evenings as conditions cool etc. may also be useful while operating this year’s Field Day. The link below features information on Heat Safety:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/heat/index.shtml

Below is a link to the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook for those interested in checking out weather conditions over the course of Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend and into the next work week:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

While the lack of weather makes this less important, Field Day sites are still encouraged to bring a NOAA All-Hazards Weather Radio and a dedicated Ham Radio that can monitor their local SKYWARN Frequency for their area as a best safety and preparedness practice. Also sites that have mobile Internet capability can utilize that capability as a way to monitor for weather information. With Mobile Internet capability, utilizing Echolink to monitor the New England Reflector system on Echolink Conference Node: 9123/IRLP 9123 would be helpful as well. Please see the link below for the latest SKYWARN Frequency information for the region:
http://beta.wx1box.org/node/37

This will be the final coordination message on 2014 Amateur Radio Field Day activities. For those Amateur Operators participating in Field Day, good luck in this event that is both a contest and a means to practice getting on the air from emergency operation centers and outdoor locations which could be needed in a disaster related scenario.

Respectfully Submitted,

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Amateur Radio Field Day Weather Coordination Message #1

June 27, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..The following is the first in a series of messages on Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend and providing information on the weather during this period. This is a tradition spanning over 12 years for Amateur Radio Operators involved with Field Day and the NWS Taunton SKYWARN Program..
..For the first time in a number of years, there is no threat for thunderstorms over the course of Field Day Weekend. Weather Conditions should be quite pleasant for Field Day Operations with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s and low humidity. Operators and people setting up Amateur Radio Field Day sites should assure they drink plenty of liquids but beyond that it should be an excellent weekend weather wise for this event..
..Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend is an annual event where Ham Operators across the United States setup at Emergency Operations Centers, field locations, home locations etc. to operate and test their equipment and skills and make as many radio contacts as possible during the weekend. Many locations can be visited by the public and Amateur Radio Field Day can be a form of outreach to Ham and non-Ham Operators. It is also noted that several states have given proclamations to Amateur Radio/Ham Radio Operators for either an ‘Amateur Radio Day or Amateur Radio Week’ during the month of June or an ‘Amateur Radio Month’ for this month. It is both a fun/preparatory event for Ham Radio Operators for Emergency Communications scenarios..
..No SKYWARN Activation or Ops at NWS Taunton are expected during the 2014 Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend..

If there is additional Amateur Radio Field Day information that you would like to appear in these coordination message, please contact me and it will be added to this section of the Amateur Radio Field Day Coordination Message. There will be another message issued Friday but given the lack of weather, a series of messages extended into Amateur Radio Field Day weekend is not required.

For the first time in a number of years, the 2014 Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend will feature gorgeous summer weather with temperatures on Friday in the 75-80 degree range and weekend temperatures in the 80s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 60s with some slightly cooler readings in rural areas especially Friday Evening.

Below is a link to the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook for those interested in checking out weather conditions over the course of Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

The final coordination message will be posted by 1130 PM Friday Evening.

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday 6/26/14 Severe Weather Potential

June 26, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Flash Flooding occurred overnight in Western Massachusetts and Southwest New Hampshire with 2-5″ rainfall amounts in portions of this region..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Possibly Severe Thunderstorms remain possible today over Central and Eastern New England. The greatest threat may be in the Southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island area. Timeframe is between 11 AM and 600 PM today. Heavy Rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding to possibly flash flooding and strong to damaging winds are the main threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS will commence at 1000 AM today for this activity..

Warmer and humid conditions will persist today as a cold front will make its way through Southern New England. This cold front was responsible for strong thunderstorms and flash flooding in Northwestern Massachusetts and Southwest New Hampshire with 2-5″ of rainfall Wednesday Evening into early Thursday Morning. The NWS Taunton Local Storm Report and Public Information Statement with information from this area is listed below:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1406260814.nwus51.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1406261205.nous41.html

As the cold front pushed through Southern New England today, this will set the stage for Isolated to Scattered Strong to Possibly Severe Thunderstorms for late Thursday Morning through early Thursday Evening. The greatest threat is in Central and Eastern New England and especially in Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts. There will be sufficient wind shear profiles over the area but cloud cover may inhibit heating and destabilization over the area. Heavy Rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding to possibly flash flooding and strong to damaging winds are the primary threat with activity today in a timeframe from 11 AM-600 PM.

Looking towards Friday through Sunday, the annual American Radio Relay League (ARRL) Amateur Radio Field Day weekend, indications remain for a sunny and gorgeous weekend with little to no threat for thunderstorms and also low humidity. Temperatures will be in the 80s. Amateur Radio Field Day Coordination Messages will likely be issued Thursday Evening and Friday and if no significant weather threat for thunderstorms exists, there will be no need to issue any over the weekend.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS will commence at 1000 AM today for this activity. This will be the last coordination message on today’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday 6/25/14-Thursday 6/26/14 Severe Weather Potential

June 25, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Possibly Severe Thunderstorms remain possible Wednesday Afternoon and Evening after 500 PM Wednesday through 2 AM Thursday Morning across Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts, and Western Connecticut. Strong to Damaging Winds and Heavy Downpours resulting in urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..Another round of isolated to scattered strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are possible from late morning Thursday into Thursday Evening across much of interior Southern New England with a focus across Central and Eastern New England. Again, Strong to Damaging Winds and Heavy Downpours resulting in urban and poor drainage flooding remain the main threats..
..SKYWARN Activation in some form remains likely on Wednesday and Thursday. Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible on both days..

Warmer and more humid conditions will occur for Wednesday and Thursday with a cold front approaching from the north and west and this will lead to the potential for Isolated to Scattered Strong to Possibly Severe Thunderstorms for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening across Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut and for much of interior Southern New England particularly central and Eastern New England midday Thursday into Thursday Evening as the cold front pushes through the entire region Thursday. Strong to damaging winds and heavy downpours resulting in urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats.

For Wednesday, the severe weather potential for Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut will still be determined by the position of the cold front and the amount of mid-level dry air that affects any potential strong to severe thunderstorm development. There should be sufficient heating and destabilization over this area but the cold front could be further north and west limiting the threat or limiting the threat to Wednesday Evening resulting in more of a potential heavy rain, urban and poor drainage and flash flood type of an event. At this time, the cold frontal position should favor the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in this area after 500 PM Wednesday Afternoon through 200 AM Thursday Morning. Heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding and strong to potentially damaging winds are the primary threats.

For Thursday, the cold front will move through the region and it will be a similar setup to Wednesday but covering much of interior Southern New England and maybe more of a heavy rainfall and potential urban and poor drainage and flash flood issue as cloud cover may limit destabilization for any kind of severe thunderstorm development but if sufficient destabilization can occur isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms would be possible.

Looking ahead to Friday through Sunday, the annual American Radio Relay League (ARRL) Amateur Radio Field Day weekend, initial indications are for a sunny and gorgeous weekend with little to no threat for thunderstorms and also low humidity. Temperatures will be in the 80s. Amateur Radio Field Day Coordination Messages will likely be issued Thursday Evening and Friday and if no significant weather threat for thunderstorms exists, there will be no need to issue any over the weekend.

SKYWARN Activation in some form is likely on Wednesday and Thursday. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible on both days. This will be the last complete coordination message on the threat for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. The next coordination message on the potential for severe weather Thursday will be sent either late tonight or Thursday Morning depending the evolution of Wednesday’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday 6/25/14 and Thursday 6/26/14 Severe Weather Potential

June 24, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Possibly Severe Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday Afternoon and Evening across Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts, and Western Connecticut. Strong to Damaging Winds and Heavy Downpours resulting in urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..Another round of isolated to scattered strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are possible from midday Thursday into Thursday Evening across much of interior Southern New England with a focus across Central and Eastern New England. Again, Strong to Damaging Winds and Heavy Downpours resulting in urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..SKYWARN Activation in some form is likely on Wednesday and Thursday. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible on both days.

A Warm Front will pass through the area tonight. This will set the stage for warmer and more humid conditions for Wednesday and Thursday with a cold front approaching from the north and west and this will lead to the potential for Isolated to Scattered Strong to Possibly Severe Thunderstorms for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening across Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut and for much of interior Southern New England particularly central and Eastern New England midday Thursday into Thursday Evening. Strong to damaging winds and heavy downpours resulting in urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats.

For Wednesday, the severe weather potential for Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut will be determined by the position of the cold front and the amount of mid-level dry air that affects any potential strong to severe thunderstorm development. There should be sufficient heating and destabilization over this area but the cold front could be further north and west limiting the threat or limiting the threat to Wednesday Evening resulting in more of a potential heavy rain, urban and poor drainage and flash flood type of an event. This will be monitored as we get into Wednesday Morning.

Looking ahead to Friday through Sunday, the annual American Radio Relay League (ARRL) Amateur Radio Field Day weekend, initial indications are for a sunny and gorgeous weekend with little to no threat for thunderstorms and also low humidity. Amateur Radio Field Day Coordination Messages will likely be issued Thursday Evening and Friday and if no significant weather threat for thunderstorms exists, there will be no need to issue any over the weekend.

SKYWARN Activation in some form is likely on Wednesday and Thursday. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible on both days. The next coordination message will be issued by 9 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1406241732.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday Night June 17th, 2014-Wednesday Morning June 18th, 2014 Severe Weather Potential

June 17, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible late this evening into early Wednesday Morning particularly in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut but other parts of interior Southern New England should also monitor. Current threat timeframe is between 9 PM Tuesday Evening through 3 AM Wednesday Morning. Strong to Damaging Winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed portions of Western New England in a slight risk of severe weather..
..The potential for any isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening will depend on any overnight thunderstorm activity and the positioning of impulses along the front and their proximity near southern parts of the NWS Taunton coverage area..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 8 PM to monitor the potential for severe weather during the late evening and early morning hours..

At 515 PM, Doppler radar is showing a line of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms across Lake Erie and to the west of Lake Ontario. Initial activity ahead of this line in Central New York State briefly was severe but has currently weakened. Despite the loss of heating as we get into the later evening and overnight hours, the atmosphere will remain unstable due to the prior heating of the day and unstable conditions aloft with the strong impulse that is currently producing the strong to possibly severe thunderstorms approaching Western New York State. Wind shear values will also be sufficient and these conditions may combine to produce isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms late this evening into early Wednesday Morning particularly in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut but other parts of interior Southern New England should also monitor. Current threat timeframe is between 9 PM Tuesday Evening through 3 AM Wednesday Morning. Strong to Damaging Winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed portions of Western New England in a slight risk of severe weather. It is possible that if conditions can remain unstable enough despite the unfavorable time of day that the storms could evolve into a complex of strong to severe thunderstorms as it moves into Western New England and this will be monitored late this evening and overnight.

For Wednesday Afternoon and evening, there remains the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms but this will depend on how the overnight thunderstorm activity evolves and the proximity of the front and impulses along the front for the southern parts of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area including portions of Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts. This will be detailed in a coordination message for Wednesday Morning.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 8 PM to monitor the potential for severe weather during the late evening and early morning hours. This will be the last coordination message regarding severe weather potential for Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement – Severe Weather Potential:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1406171902.wwus81.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday Evening 6/17/14-Wednesday 6/18/14 Severe Weather Potential

June 17, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible during the overnight hours Tuesday Night into early Wednesday Morning (around Midnight through 600 AM) as an impulse moves through the region overnight. Strong winds, hail and heavy downpours with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats across much of interior Southern New England..
..Another round of Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible again Wednesday Afternoon and Evening across areas along and south of the Massachusetts Turnpike into Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts with strong winds hail and heavy downpours with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. The threat for the Wednesday Afternoon and Evening severe weather will be contingent on the track of any strong to severe thunderstorm complex overnight tonight into Wednesday Morning and any lingering cloud cover..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to cover the overnight threat. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 930 PM this evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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