Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday May 16th, 2012 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible across Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut late Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Evening. Damaging Winds and hail are the primary threats with heavy downpours and urban/poor drainage flooding also possible..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and NWS Taunton continue to be in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather in Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut for late Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Evening..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton remains possible late Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Evening..
At 735 AM, Doppler Radar showed an area of heavy rainfall over Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts extending to the eastern tip of Long Island NY with lighter showers moving eastward across Southwest Massachusets and Northwest Connecticut. This activity should move out of these areas by late morning. Also, at 735 AM, satellite imagery shows clearing moving into East-Central New York into Western New York with the cold front about to enter Western New York. This cold front will move into Eastern New York and Western New England late Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Evening.
Based on Satellite imagery and computer model trends, conditions are expected to clear out over the area to allow for sufficient heating and destablization with temperatures going into the 70s to possibly 80 degrees. Wind fields should be strong enough to support isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in a continuous squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms or as one or two short lines of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats with heavy downpours and urban and poor drainage flooding also possible. The greatest threat for severe weather remains in Southwest New Hampshire and Western Massachusetts from the Worcester area west and in Northern Connecticut through Hartford and Tolland Counties. The timeframe of severe weather appears to be after 4 PM this afternoon. SPC and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather for late Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday evening for this area.
Further east, the loss of daytime heating should mitigate the overall threat but an isolated strong or severe thunderstorm could occur in these areas. The overall threat in the east, however, is much less due to coastal influence and the timing of the front past peak heating.
Current caveats to the severe weather potential remain and include the amount of cooling aloft, degree of heating and destablization if clearing doesn’t occur by midday/early afternoon and the timing of the cold front into the area. This will be monitored throughout the day today.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible late Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday evening. This will be the last complete coordination message on this threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued as time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org