Page 177 – WX1BOX – Amateur Radio Station at NWS Boston/Norton

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday July 26th, 2012 Major/Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Potential

July 26, 2012 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Potentially significant severe weather outbreak for much of Southern New England Thursday Afternoon and Evening..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western New England in a Moderate Risk for Severe Weather with the remainder of Southern New England in a high-end slight risk for severe weather. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out particularly in the moderate risk area. NWS Taunton is in agreement with this threat..
..The severe weather threat timeframe is after 3 PM for western areas and after 5 PM for eastern areas. It is noted that activity could last well into the evening and overnight hours..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 2 PM ET Thursday through late evening Thursday/early morning Friday..
..ARES/RACES Groups should closely monitor the progress of this situation and seek advice from their local leadership..

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western New England in a Moderate Risk for Severe Weather with the remainder of Southern New England in a high-end slight risk for severe weather. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out particularly in the moderate risk area. NWS Taunton is in agreement with this threat.

Reviewing computer models, radar and satellite data, overnight tonight into Thursday Morning, a warm front is draped across the region and will migrate northeastward during this timeframe. A Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) is expected to track somewhere across this warm frontal boundary during this period. This could come over Southern New England or possibly track to our north. Initially, there will be cloud debris with this system that could last until midday Thursday. This system is not expected to be severe and will likely weaken as it approaches the region.

All computer weather models are insistent on clearing out the region and that will allow for rapid heating and destabilization. Shear profiles will be very strong given the proximity of the warm front over the region and will allow for turning in the atmosphere. As this occurs, this will allow for scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. The threat timeframe will be after 3 PM in western parts of the area and after 5 PM in eastern parts of the area. Activity will last well into the evening hours Thursday into early Friday Morning. The potential is there for a significant/major severe weather outbreak for much of the region based on the location of the Moderate risk and high-end slight risk areas.

As always with severe weather scenarios, there are risks/caveats to the forecast for a significant outbreak particularly in New England and remember that isolated to scattered areas of significant issues typically occur in these scenarios meaning not all areas get hit. From a risks/caveats to the forecast point of view, there are two main caveats:

1.) Cloud debris doesn’t thin out as models predict holding back instability parameters.

2.) The position of the warm front doesn’t migrate as far northeast as current model trends indicate keeping portions of the region cooler.

At this time, there are fairly strong indicators based on the current computer weather models that a significant severe weather outbreak is possible leading to the rare issuance of a ‘moderate risk’ severe weather area for Western New England and a ‘high end slight risk’ severe weather area for the remainder of Southern New England approximately 24 hours away from the potential situation.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 2 PM ET Thursday through late evening Thursday/early morning Friday. ARES/RACES Groups should closely monitor the progress of this situation and seek advice from their local leadership. The next coordination message will be issued by 9 AM Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1207231732.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #4 – Tuesday 7/24/12 Severe Weather Potential

July 24, 2012 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..A few strong thunderstorms affected the region early this morning with winds up to 40 MPH, small hail, heavy downpours and frequent lightning..
..A Cold front will approach the region this afternoon and evening. The cold frontal timing is expected to be around the time of peak heating which will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has kept Central and Eastern New England in a Slight Risk of severe weather for late Tuesday Morning through Tuesday Evening and NWS Taunton is in agreement..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely late Tuesday Morning through Tuesday Evening..

Early this morning, a line of strong but non-severe thunderstorms went through the region bringing 40 MPH wind gusts, small hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours. This activity has moved offshore. Satellite imagery shows fairly clear skies to allow for heating and destabilization. Wind shear profiles and other severe weather parameters should be sufficient for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. It is noted that SPC has continued a slight risk for severe weather for Central and Eastern New England and this is the area to be watched for this afternoon and tonight.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely late Morning Tuesday through Tuesday Evening. This will be the last complete coordination message on this threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Tuesday 7/24/12 Severe Weather Potential

July 24, 2012 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Strong to Severe Thunderstorm activity stayed to the north and west of the NWS Taunton coverage area today..
..A Cold front will approach the region Tuesday. The timing of the cold front and whether or not it is near the time of peak heating will dictate the potential of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded Central and Eastern New England to a Slight Risk of severe weather for late Tuesday Morning through Tuesday Evening and NWS Taunton is in agreement..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely late Tuesday Morning through Tuesday Evening..

Today, severe weather stayed to the north and west of the NWS Taunton coverage area with a couple brief strong thunderstorms entering extreme Southwest New Hampshire and Western Massachusetts this evening. As we get into Tuesday, a cold front will approach the region from the west. The timing of this cold front will be key to severe weather potential. If it approaches too early, the severe weather threat could be mitigated, however, if it comes into the region in the late morning or afternoon timeframe, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding would be likely over the area. It is noted that SPC has placed portions of Central and Eastern New England in a Slight Risk for severe weather which is an upgrade from the prior Day-2 Convective Outlook and NWS Taunton is in agreement. By Tuesday Morning, we should have a better idea of the severe weather potential and timing of the cold front but it appears the severe weather potential for Tuesday is greater than Monday at this time.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely late Morning Tuesday through Tuesday Evening. The next coordination message will be issued by 9 AM ET Tuesday. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1207231732.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Monday 7/23/12 and Tuesday 7/24/12 Severe Weather Potential

July 23, 2012 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible over Interior Southern New England on Monday. Damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued 5% probabilities of severe weather over much of Southern and Eastern New England with a Slight Risk for severe weather over Western, Northern New York, most of Vermont, Northern New Hampshire, Western Maine now extending into extreme Southwest New Hampshire and extreme Western Massachusetts and NWS Taunton is in agreement..
..An additional potential for severe weather exists for Tuesday and will be covered in future coordination messages after the Monday Severe Weather Potential has passed..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible on Monday Afternoon and Evening and again on Tuesday Afternoon and evening..

At 700 AM Doppler Radar showed an area of showers and possibly embedded thunderstorms over South-Central and Southeast New York moving into Western New England with some additional shower activity in Eastern Massachusetts. Satellite imagery shows clearing north and west of this activity. Further upstream, a trough with some shower and thunderstorm activity is moving east-southeast from the Lake Huron area. This trough and activity in Lake Huron may be close enough to Southern New England for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. The threat timeframe will be during Monday Afternoon and evening. Low severe weather probabilities have been introduced by SPC for much of Southern New England with a Slight risk for severe weather over Western and Northern New York, most of Vermont, Northern New Hampshire, extreme Western Maine and now extending into extreme Southwest New Hampshire and Western Massachusetts. The proximity of the front, cloud cover, and wind shear over the area will determine the risk for severe weather for Monday Afternoon and Evening.

There is also the potential for severe weather on Tuesday. This will depend on the timing of the cold front over the area as well as wind shear and cloud cover over the region similar to Monday. This will be discussed in greater detail after the Monday severe weather potential has passed.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Monday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last complete coordination message on Monday’s severe weather potential. A shortened coordination message will be sent if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/latest.acus02.KWNS.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday July 23rd, 2012 Severe Weather Potential

July 23, 2012 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible over Interior Southern New England on Monday. Damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has 5% probabilities of severe weather over much of Southern and Eastern New England with a Slight Risk for severe weather over Western, Northern New York, most of Vermont, Northern New Hampshire and Western Maine and NWS Taunton is in agreement..
..An additional potential for severe weather exists for Tuesday and will be covered in future coordination messages after the Monday Severe Weather Potential has passed..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible on Monday Afternoon and Evening and again on Tuesday Afternoon and evening..

A warm front will move through the region overnight. After that passes through the region, a trough will develop over portions of New York and New England as the heat and humidity increase. The trough maybe close enough to Southern New England for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. The threat timeframe will be during Monday Afternoon and evening. Low severe weather probabilities have been introduced by SPC for much of Southern New England with a Slight risk for severe weather over Western and Northern New York, most of Vermont, Northern New Hampshire and extreme Western Maine. The proximity of the front, cloud cover, and wind shear over the area will determine the risk for severe weather for Monday Afternoon and Evening.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Monday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be issued by 830 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1207221732.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

NWS Taunton Public Information Statements – Hurricane Preparedness Week Monday 7/16/12-Friday 7/20/12

July 21, 2012 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

NWS Taunton declared this past week from Monday 7/16/12-Friday 7/20/12 as Hurricane Preparedness Week. NWS Taunton issued Public Information Statements for Hurricane Preparedness Week over the past week. The link below contains those NWS Taunton Public Information Statements:

http://beta.wx1box.org/local/hurricane_prepare_week_2012.txt

Respectfully Submitted,

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Post Severe Weather Coordination Message – Wednesday July 18th, 2012 Severe Weather Outbreak

July 21, 2012 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Largest Severe Weather Outbreak of the 2012 Summer Season to date affected much of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area from Connecticut to Rhode Island to South-Central and Eastern Massachusetts..
..Additional Pictures have been received and links to those pictures are provided below..
..NWS Taunton issued a Public Information Statement officially declaring a microburst in Arlington, Massachusetts. That statement and listings to the raw storm report log and Local Storm Report as well as additional pictures are listed below. This will be the last post severe weather message on this event..

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report Log:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/lsr_7_18_12.txt

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement on Arlington Microburst:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_7_18_12_arlington.txt

Raw Storm Report Log:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/storm_reports_7_18_12.txt

Arlington Mass Complete Microburst Photo Album:
http://kb1ncg.shutterfly.com/1480

Chandler Road – Medford, Mass Large Limb Down Picture provided by Hal Bloom:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/large_limb_down_chandler_road_medford_hal_bloom.jpg

1.25-1.50″ Hail in Southbridge, Mass Picture provided by Dan Butler:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/HAIL_Southbridge_dan_butler.jpg

KB1QYS-Paul Nichols (Shelf Cloud Picture from Logan Airport):
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/genimage_kb1qys.jpg

Arlington Mass Microburst Pictures by KB1NCG-Marek Kozubal and KB1USO-Kate Murphy:
http://www.facebook.com/wx1box (Photo Album posted)

N1EVH-Mike Nasleroad Hail Pictures – Lynn Mass:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/IMG_1381_n1evh_mike_naselroad.jpg
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/IMG_1385_n1evh_mike_naselroad.jpg

N1VUX-Bill Ricker Boston Mass Funnel Cloud Taken at WTC Looking toward Deer Island etc.:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/20120718_003_boston_n1vux.jpg
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/20120718_003-enhanced_n1vux.jpg
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/20120718_002-enhanced.jpg
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/20120718_002.jpg
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/20120718_001-enhanced_possible_funnel_n1vux.jpg
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/20120718_001_possible_funnel_boston_wtc.jpg

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Wednesday 7/18/12 Severe Weather Potential

July 18, 2012 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Scattered to Numerous Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely today across much of Southern New England with the highest risk area for strong to severe thunderstorms along and south of the Mass. Pike. Damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..Threat timeframe will be centered anytime after Noon today lasting through tonight. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather for today..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 11 AM ET today lasting through Wednesday Evening..

At 730 AM, Satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with some high clouds in parts of Western New England. A cold front that will begin to usher in cooler and more seasonable temperatures is currently over Western Maine through South-Central New Hampshire and Vermont through Central New York and will move southeast. Overnight low temperatures were in the upper 70’s to lower 80s and with mostly clear skies, significant heating and destablization is expected. Wind shear profiles are sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorm development. Most parameters are favorable for scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms today with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The threat timeframe for severe weather will be anytime after Noon today with the greatest threat in areas along and south of the Mass. Pike, however, all areas should monitor. SPC and NWS Taunton and surrounding NWS offices are in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather for Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 11 AM today lasting through Wednesday Evening. This will be the last coordination message on today’s threat. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday 7/17/12 Self-Activation/Wednesday 7/18/12 Severe Weather Potential

July 18, 2012 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..SKYWARN is self-activated this evening for portions of Southern New Hampshire for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms that are near the area. This should gradually wane overnight..
..Scattered to Numerous Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely across much of Southern New England from midday Wednesday to Wednesday Evening. Damaging Winds, Large Hail, and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a Slight Risk for Severe Weather Across Much of Southern New England including coastal areas..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 11 AM Wednesday through Wednesday Evening..

The bulk of Tuesday’s severe weather occurred over Northern New England, however, an isolated severe thunderstorm snuck into Manchester, NH causing isolated damage. See the Local Storm Report below:

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1207180041.nwus51.html

Wednesday has the potential to be an active severe weather day across much of Southern New England as a cold front brings an end to the latest round of heat and humidity affecting the region. There should be sufficient heating and destablization ahead of the cold front to allow for an unstable atmosphere. Wind Shear profiles also appear favorable for scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. Threat timeframe could start as early as midday Wednesday lasting through Wednesday Evening. SPC and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather and it is noted that much of the region is in the 30% severe weather probability area.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 11 AM lasting through Wednesday Evening. Another coordination message will be issued by 9 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/latest.acus02.KWNS.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday July 17th, 2012 Severe Weather Potential

July 17, 2012 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Southern New Hampshire, Western, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather for later this Tuesday afternoon and Evening. Damaging Winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..Threat is contingent on southward extent of a disturbance that will affect portions of Northern New England and whether short-range computer models indicating much greater instability over Southern New England verify versus other reliable models indicating much less instability over the region..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible later this afternoon and evening if severe weather threat materializes in the NWS Taunton portion of the SPC Slight Risk area..

A conditional severe weather threat exists for northern portions of the NWS Taunton coverage area from Southern New Hampshire, Western, North-Central and Northeastern Massachusetts for later this afternoon and tonight as SPC has placed this region in a slight risk for severe weather with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. Weather models, even this close to the event, are struggling to resolve instability parameters ahead of a disturbance that will affect Northern New England with severe weather and how far south the extent of the severe weather will be. Short range reliable computer models are indicating that instability will increase allowing for severe weather in the southern portions of the area SPC has placed in Slight Risk. Other reliable computer models, however, keep the threat north of the NWS Taunton coverage area. Enough risk exists at this time to issue a severe weather coordination message covering the threat.

An additional severe weather risk exists for Wednesday for much of the NWS Taunton coverage area. This will be covered in later coordination messages Tuesday Night into Wednesday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible later this afternoon and tonight. This will be the only complete coordination message issued covering today’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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