Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut Sunday Evening into early Monday Morning. There could be two rounds one during roughly between 4-8 PM Sunday Evening though this is more conditional and less likely than a second potentially more potent round between 10 PM Sunday Evening-6 AM EDT Monday Morning. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather Sunday Night into Monday Morning and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed the same area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall in the same areas..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential potential for Sunday Night into Monday Morning..

A front will move across Southern New England Sunday Night into Monday Morning. Typically, this unfavorable timing would not support severe thunderstorm development but due to strong shear, dynamics and lift from the front, there is the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The instability levels and whether those levels are sufficient combined with strong wind shear and jet dynamics for severe weather potential.
2.) Whether severe thunderstorms in Central and Eastern New York presuming they develop as expected starting out in Michigan and Western New York will maintain their intensity as they move into Southern New England.
3.) The earlier Sunday Evening threat is more conditional as there would be sufficient shear and instability but a lack of strong trigger in the atmosphere means that no thunderstorms form during the first half of Sunday Evening but if something were to form, it could go severe rapidly. Models differ on whether a few rapidly developing strong to severe thunderstorms occur or if there is no activity. Later at night, there will be the trigger and wind shear but instability will be in question with a lack of heating but an “elevated mixed layer” may allow for better instability offsetting lack of heating creating better severe weather potential overnight than normal for the region.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential potential for Sunday Night into Monday Morning. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut Sunday Evening into early Monday Morning. There could be two rounds one during roughly 6-10 PM Sunday Evening timeframe and a second potentially more potent round between 12 AM-6 AM EDT Monday Morning. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather Sunday Night into Monday Morning and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed the same area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential potential for Sunday Night into Monday Morning..

A front will move across Southern New England Sunday Night into Monday Morning. Typically, this unfavorable timing would not support severe thunderstorm development but due to strong shear, dynamics and lift from the front, there is the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The instability levels and whether those levels are sufficient combined with strong wind shear and jet dynamics for severe weather potential.
2.) Whether severe thunderstorms in Central and Eastern New York presuming they develop as expected will maintain their intensity as they move into Southern New England.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential potential for Sunday Night into Monday Morning. Another coordination message will be posted by 1030 AM Sunday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210911_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible in three rounds across Southern New England, one during the Wednesday Evening timeframe, another round possible Thursday Morning and a final round Thursday Afternoon and early evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly small river and steam flooding are the primary threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has expanded the Marginal Risk for severe weather to include Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts, Connecticut, and much of interior Rhode Island for tonight into Thursday Morning with a slight risk for severe weather further west into Eastern New York..
..The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed portions of Western New England in a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening and Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Thursday..
..Hurricane Larry will track well east of New England but could bring the risk for swells, rip currents and dangerous surf conditions along coastal beach areas of Southern New England later this week and this weekend and anyone going to coastal areas should avoid the rocks etc and be careful swimming in any coastal area beaches..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential for Wednesday Evening through Thursday Evening..

A strong cold front will slowly work its way through Southern New England late Wednesday Night through Thursday Evening. This cold front will bring with it the potential for some severe weather and flooding issues to portions of Southern New England. This cold front is what will keep Hurricane Larry well offshore of Southern New England but swells, rip currents and waves from Larry will affect coastal areas of Southern New England late this week and this weekend so any beachgoers going to area beaches should use caution going into the ocean waters. The headlines reflect the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The timing of the cold front through Southern New England and whether there is sufficient instability or sufficient jet dynamics to overcome marginal instability to allow for any strong to severe thunderstorms to develop.
2.) The potential for any training of thunderstorms to allow for potential flooding issues in parts of Southern New England. While the rainfall will be nowhere near the magnitude of the remnants of Ida, the recent rainfall and the potential for 1-2″ of rain with isolated higher amounts may cause renewed flood potential over portions of the area.
3.) It remains unclear particularly for Eastern New England whether the greatest potential for severe weather will occur Thursday Morning or more towards afternoon and evening. This will depend on how any shower and thunderstorm activity forms, what areas it affects and as we get into Thursday any sunshine that may allow for higher levels of instability. These aspects will be monitored closely.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential for Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday Evening. Where the severe weather and flood potential could occur anytime in the Wednesday Evening to Thursday Evening timeframe, this will likely be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode unless a significant change to the situation occurs and time allows for an update, Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks and WPC Day-1/Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlooks..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210908_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible in three rounds across Southern New England, one during the late Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Evening timeframe, another round possible Thursday Morning and a final round Thursday Afternoon and early evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly small river and steam flooding..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western New England in a marginal risk for severe weather with a slight risk of severe weather in portions of Eastern New York. Eastern New England areas should monitor particularly for the severe weather potential for Thursday..
..The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed portions of Western New England in a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential for Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday Evening. Another coordination message will be posted at 10 AM Wednesday with greater details on the severe weather and excessive rainfall potential. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210907_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..The active summer and rapid fire succession of multiple systems across the region have resulted in less time to do post storm reports after some of the more significant and tropical systems that have affected the region. Over the course of 9/5/21-9/12/21, we will be posting a serious of post storm damage reports to our email list, web site and social media as well as post photo albums of some of the significant weather events affecting our region..
..Pictures, videos and post storm damage reports from some of the significant severe weather events as well as tropical systems and their remnants such as Tropical Storm Elsa, Tropical Storm Henri and his remnants, and the remnants of Fred and Ida can be posted as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds as well as the email address pics@nsradio.org. We appreciate the tremendous efforts of SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators during this extremely active summer weather season..

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..The remnants of Ida will bring the potential threat of widespread heavy rainfall and flash flooding as the primary concern but also the secondary concern of strong to damaging winds across the region with the threat for an isolated weak tornado or isolated pockets of enhanced wind damage in severe thunderstorms in Southeast Coastal New England..
..A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire NWS Boston/Norton coverage area for widespread rainfall of 2-6″ with isolated amounts higher amounts in parts of the flash flood watch area. This rainfall forecasted if it occurs in a short period of time will result in widespread pockets of urban and poor drainage flooding with small river and stream flooding likely. It is noted that the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a moderate to high risk of excessive rainfall..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Southeast Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island in a marginal risk for severe weather with strong to damaging winds and an isolated weak tornado as the main threats..
..Strong general wind gusts of 30-40 MPH inland, and 35-45 MPH with isolated higher gusts at the coast are possible depending on the ability of those winds to reach the surface as well as the track and intensity of the remnants of Ida as it taps into non-tropical energy as it moves through the region. These wind gusts coupled with saturated ground and additional rainfall may cause somewhat higher wind damage potential than normal due to the wet conditions though this remains a secondary concern compared to the rainfall and flood threat..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets Likely overnight Wednesday Night into Thursday Afternoon for the main threats of flash flooding and measured rainfall reports but the secondary threat of strong to damaging winds and isolated severe thunderstorms with an isolated weak tornado..

The remnants of Ida will impact the weather across Southern New England significantly late Wednesday Night through Thursday Afternoon. The headlines depict the current thinking and potential. Key factors include:

1.) The axis of heaviest rain could shift further north and west or shift a little south and east in future updates but a widespread heavy rainfall is expected regionwide. Flash Flooding is the primary concern from this storm event. Where an enhanced area of rainfall of between 4-7″ sets up could be around the Mass Pike area, areas just north of there or areas south of there across Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts and small track changes in the remnants will determine where this sets up.
2.) Some weather models are depicting strong to damaging wind gusts with the remnants Ida as it taps into non-tropical energy. The key will be weather these strong winds materialize and whether they can reach the surface. This will bear monitoring as a secondary concern as the wet ground, additional rainfall coupled with strong wind gusts could lead to higher impacts in terms of wind damage if those wind gusts were to materialize. Currently wind gusts of 30-40 MPH inland and 35-45 MPH with isolated higher gusts at the coast seem like the most probable scenario.
3.) There is the potential for thunderstorms to enhance the wind gusts in Southeast coastal New England along with the potential for isolated weak tornadoes. This is also a secondary concern that bears watching and will depend on the track of the remnants of Ida and if they track near or over Southern New England allowing Southeast Coastal New England to get into more of the warm sector.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets Likely overnight Wednesday Night into Thursday Afternoon for the main threats of flash flooding and measured rainfall reports but the secondary threat of strong to damaging winds and isolated severe thunderstorms with an isolated weak tornado. This will be the last coordination message as we move into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Rainfall Forecast Map, WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Rainfall Map:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/StormTotalQPF_SFC4.png

WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..The remnants of Ida will bring the potential threat of widespread heavy rainfall and flash flooding as the primary concern but also the secondary concern of strong to damaging winds across the region with the threat for an isolated weak tornado or isolated pockets of enhanced wind damage in severe thunderstorms in Southeast Coastal New England..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for the entire NWS Boston/Norton coverage area for widespread rainfall of 2-6″ with isolated amounts higher amounts in parts of the flash flood watch area. This rainfall forecasted if it occurs in a short period of time will result in widespread pockets of urban and poor drainage flooding with small river and stream flooding likely. It is noted that the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a moderate to high risk of excessive rainfall..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Southeast Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island in a marginal risk for severe weather with strong to damaging winds and an isolated weak tornado as the main threats..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets Likely overnight Wednesday Night into Thursday Afternoon for the main threats of flash flooding and measured rainfall reports but the secondary threat of strong to damaging winds and isolated severe thunderstorms with an isolated weak tornado..

The remnants of Ida will impact the weather across Southern New England significantly late Wednesday Night through Thursday Afternoon. The headlines depict the current thinking and potential. Key factors include:

1.) The axis of heaviest rain could shift further north and west or shift a little south and east in future updates but a widespread heavy rainfall is expected regionwide. Flash Flooding is the primary concern from this storm event.
2.) Some weather models are depicting strong to damaging wind gusts with the remnants Ida as it taps into non-tropical energy. The key will be weather these strong winds materialize and whether they can reach the surface. This will bear monitoring as a secondary concern as the wet ground, additional rainfall coupled with strong wind gusts could lead to higher impacts in terms of wind damage if those wind gusts were to materialize.
3.) There is the potential for thunderstorms to enhance the wind gusts in Southeast coastal New England along with the potential for isolated weak tornadoes. This is also a secondary concern that bears watching.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets Likely overnight Wednesday Night into Thursday Afternoon for the main threats of flash flooding and measured rainfall reports but the secondary threat of strong to damaging winds and isolated severe thunderstorms with an isolated weak tornado. The next coordination message will be posted by 10 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Rainfall Forecast Map, WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Rainfall Map:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/StormTotalQPF_SFC4.png

WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210831_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible Monday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England from roughly the Connecticut River Valley east to the coastal areas of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather. Severe weather potential timeframe is between 1-9 PM Monday..
..Key factors in severe weather potential today is for higher levels of instability to compensate for lower wind shear values over the region..
..The remnants of Ida will affect Southern New England with the potential for heavy rainfall, the potential for urban, poor drainage, river, stream and flash flooding and isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm potential late Wednesday to late Thursday. Additional details on impacts of Ida will be posted in future coordination messages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening and again for the remnants of Ida late Wednesday into late Thursday. This will be the only coordination message on the Monday severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..The remnants of Henri currently west of Southern New England will track back eastward over Southern New England bringing with it the potential for heavy rainfall with more flooding and flash flooding issues and the possibility of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and the possibility of an isolated weak tornado or two. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of central and eastern Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..A Flood Watch remains in effect through Monday Evening for Northern Connecticut, all of Rhode Island and Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden and Worcester Counties of Massachusetts for renewed rainfall over already soaked areas causing the potential for another round of urban, poor drainage, river, stream and urban flooding..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flash flood potential for late Monday Morning to Monday Evening..
..The Post Tropical Storm Henri Coordination Message will be done later tonight or Tuesday depending on the impacts from Henri’s remnants on the region today and how significant they are. Reports, pictures and videos of Tropical Storm Henri wind damage and flooding can be sent as a reply to this email, via the WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feed or through the email address pics@nsradio.org..
..This will be the only coordination message on Monday’s flood and severe weather potential in association with the remnants of Henri. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Henri has intensified into a hurricane. Hurricane Henri is on track and may strengthen further and will then affect Southern New England Sunday into Monday as either a Category-1 hurricane or a strong tropical storm with a landfall somewhere between Eastern Long Island New York and Eastern Connecticut through Eastern Rhode Island. Damaging winds, the threat for severe weather and isolated tornadoes along and to the east of the track, heavy rainfall and flooding and coastal storm surge flooding are all potential threats..
..A Hurricane Warning is now in effect from Watch Hill Rhode Island to West of Westport Massachusetts and includes Washington and Newport Counties of Rhode Island. In this area, the potential for sustained or wind gusts to the hurricane force will cause widespread pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages in this area..
..A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Watch Hill Rhode Island to Chatham Massachusetts and includes Hartford, Tolland, Windham, Providence, Kent, and Bristol Counties of Rhode Island, Southern Bristol, and Southern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. In this area, sustained winds of 30-50 MPH with gusts to 60-70 MPH with isolated higher wind gusts will have the potential to cause widespread pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages in this area..
..A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts including Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket for the late Saturday Night to Monday timeframe with a Storm Surge Watch remaining in effect from Chatham to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts. Storm surge of 2-5 feet above tide levels will have the potential to cause widespread pockets of shore road flooding across the Storm Surge Warning area with those conditions possible in the storm surge watch area..
..A Flood Watch is in effect for Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island, Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden and Worcester Counties of Massachusetts from Saturday Evening through Monday Morning for 3-6″ of rain with isolated higher amounts. This rainfall can cause flooding of urban and poor drainage areas, rivers and streams particularly given the prior rainfall of the past 6-8 weeks..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Sunday for the potential of thunderstorms mixing damaging winds down to the surface as well as the risk for isolated tornadoes..
..Remnants of Tropical Depression Fred caused significant heavy rainfall in portions of Connecticut, Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts on Thursday along with severe weather with two confirmed tornadoes in Clinton, Massachusetts and Thompson, Connecticut..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely the potential impacts of Henri for Sunday into Monday. ARES/RACES and other similar groups should closely monitor the progress of Henri and seek advice from their leadership. Pictures, videos and post storm damage reports from Thursday’s severe weather event and upcoming impacts from Henri can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and through the email address pics@nsradio.org..

For Thursday, the remnants of tropical depression Fred caused two confirmed tornadoes in Clinton, Massachusetts and Thompson, CT. A waterspout from the same parent cell that caused storm damage in Thompson, CT occurred in Webster, Massachusetts. Further details on these tornadoes can be seen in the Public Information Statement at the following link:

NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement – Thursday 8/19/21 Confirmed Tornadoes:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2108202338.nous41.html

Henri intensified into a hurricane as expected earlier today and some additional slight strengthening is likely overnight as he approaches our region. Henri has turned north-northeastward and will bend northward and then northwest and head on a path that will bring it just east of or over a part of Long Island New York and then the Southern New England coast somewhere between Eastern Connecticut/Eastern Long Island New York and Eastern Rhode Island. Model guidance has clustered more around this solution and range during the day which resulted in the eastward shift of the Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings. The headlines reflect the current watches, warnings and thinking. The key factors with Henri are as follows:

1.) The track of Henri and whether a westward trend in the guidance continues or settles on the current track or if some eastward shifts occur. The west side of Henri will experience some strong winds with heavy rain as the main threat while closest to the center and on the east side of the system will have the greater potential for damaging winds, and severe weather but less rainfall. The track will also affect which coastal areas will have the greatest risk for coastal storm surge flooding. As mentioned above, the model range of near or over Eastern Long Island into Eastern Connecticut to somewhere over Rhode Island is the guidance envelope as Henri closes in on the region.
2.) The intensity and structure of Henri are additional factors. All models strengthen Henri a bit more as it moves towards New England. Its peak intensity along with the size of the tropical storm force and hurricane force wind fields will also determine how strong the impacts are over the Southern New England coast and Southeast/Eastern New England. It is noted the wind field continues to expand along and to the east of the center meaning damaging winds along the east side of Henri will bring strong to damaging winds to inland portions of Southern New England though the strongest winds will be along the coastal areas.
3.) The speed of Henri’s approach to the region. Some models slow Henri’s approach toward Southern New England . Depending on when that slowing occurs and how close it is to the Southern New England coast will determine impacts over the region. Typically, tropical systems accelerate through Southern New England but the setup for Henri may actually have it slow near or over Southern New England or potentially south of New England. Right now this slowing is expected to be inland over Southern New England which may allow the duration of strong winds and heavy rainfall to occur for a longer than normal period than most tropical systems.
4.) The potential for thunderstorms particularly along and to the east side of the track that can bring damaging winds down to the surface and the potential for isolated tornadoes will bear watching Sunday Morning through Sunday evening given the SPC marginal risk for severe weather in much of Southern New England.

Its noted that the Amateur Radio Hurricane Watch Net and VoIP Hurricane Net will both be active for Henri. Please see net their web sites for more information:

Hurricane Watch Net:
https://hwn.org/

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://voipwx.net/
-Please note that the *NEW-ENG3* Echolink conference: node 9123/IRLP 9123 and the VoIP Hurricane Net Echolink conference node *WX_TALK* echolink conference node: 7203/IRLP 9219 system will be connected to form one large net for Henri.
SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely for the potential impacts of Henri for Sunday into Monday. ARES/RACES and other similar groups should closely monitor the progress of Henri and seek advice from their leadership. This will be the last coordination message as we move into operations mode. Pictures, videos and post storm damage reports from Thursday’s severe weather event and upcoming impacts from Henri can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and through the email address pics@nsradio.org.

Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Local Statement, Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook, Public Information Statement on Hurricane Safety Tips and the NHC Hurricane Henri advisory package:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Local Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210821_1730.html

NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement – Hurricane Safety Tips:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2108201412.nous41.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Henri Public Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt33.KNHC.html

Hurricane Henri Technical Discussion Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt43.KNHC.html

Hurricane Henri Forecast/Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt23.KNHC.html

Hurricane Henri Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font13.KNHC.html

Hurricane Henri Key Messages:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/092753.shtml?key_messages#contents

Hurricane Henri Storm Graphics:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/092753.shtml?cone#contents

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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