Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday 9/25/22 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England with the greatest risk along and south of the Mass Pike. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather with the timeframe for severe weather between 3 PM-12 AM this Sunday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for this Sunday Afternoon and Evening..

A warm front will move across Southern New England and will be accompanied by strong shear. Instability is questionable and will depend on how much surface heating we get ahead of the warm front. At this time, some heating is possible and it will be a question of whether those instability levels are sufficient or strong shear can compensate for limited instability for the formation of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The main threat timeframe is after 3 PM today until late tonight and there is sufficient risk where SPC has placed the region in a marginal risk and this will be monitored.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Sunday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the only coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org