July 2012

Special Announcement: NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – EF0 Tornado in the Manomet Section of Plymouth, Mass. on Tuesday 7/24/12

July 31, 2012 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

The following is a Public Information Statement issued by NWS Taunton regarding an EF0 Tornado that was confirmed in the Manomet section of Plymouth, Mass. on Tuesday July 24th 2012. Below is that statement:

http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_7_30_12.txt

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Plymouth G.A.RS. 146.685 Repeater Out of Service 8/1/12 Through 8/7/12

July 29, 2012 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

This is to inform users of the Plymouth G.A.R.S. “685” repeater will be out of service for a general checkup. The repeater will be shut down on Wednesday August 1, 2012 and hopefully returned to general amateur use on the following Tuesday August 7, ready for the weekly net.

The repeater trustee’s will notify the G.A.R.S. if the repeater has any problems. If a skywarn activation is needed use one of the other local repeaters for information. You can check on line with the New England Repeater Directory or the SKYWARN Frequency listing on the wx1box.org web site.

John, KB1EVY
Kevin, K1KOD

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Severe Weather/Flash Flood Coordination Message #1A – Saturday July 28th, 2012 Severe Weather/Flash Flood – NWS Taunton SKYWARN Ops/SKYWARN Activation Active

July 28, 2012 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible across Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut through Southwest New Hampshire along with attendant localized Flash Flood Threat. Due to these conditions, SKYWARN Activation and Ops at NWS Taunton are now active. See NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion links below..

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1630.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather/Flash Flood Coordination Message #1 – Saturday 7/28/12 Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential

July 28, 2012 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Slow moving thundestorms across Western New England may bring the threat of flash flooding to portions of that region. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm may also be possible with strong to damaging winds as the main threat..
..A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Cheshire County New Hampshire, Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire Counties of Massachusetts and Hartford County Connecticut from Noon today through late tonight..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible this afternoon and tonight for flash flood and isolated strong to severe thunderstorm potential..

Satellite imagery shows clouds with some breaks in the clouds over portions of Western New England and Eastern New York with showers and embedded thunderstorms in West-Central New York per Doppler Radar. With enough sunny breaks, the atmosphere should destabilize and this should allow thunderstorms to develop. Due to weak low level winds, they will be slow moving meaning thunderstorms would have the potential to produce heavy rainfall in a short period of time as the main threat over localized areas. There are some stronger winds higher up in the atmosphere so if a thunderstorm could intensify sufficiently an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm could occur with strong to damaging winds as a secondary threat but the main threat from thunderstorms today is heavy rainfall and flash flooding. A Flash Flood Watch has been posted for Cheshire County New Hampshire, Franklin, Hampden and Hampshire counties of Western Massachusetts and Hartford County of North-Central Connecticut from Noon today through late tonight. The east slopes of the Berkshires could have the greatest risk of flash flooding but all of the Flash Flood Watch area has potential. At this time, eastern portions of the NWS Taunton coverage area should not see any significant thunderstorm activity causing any flash flood issues.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible this afternoon and evening. This will be the only complete coordination message on today’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Thursday 7/26/12 Severe Weather Potential Greatly Reduced

July 27, 2012 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Severe Weather Threat for the region has been greatly reduced. Reasons for lack of severe weather over the area were due to the warm frontal position not moving far enough north to allow the storm complex to track into Southern New England and the complex dove further southeast to the New York City area and Southern Connecticut. While clearing occurred over Western New England to allow for instability, the greater instability remained south of our region causing the severe weather threat to be south of the region as the complex of storms moved further south towards the area of greater instability. These caveats were mentioned in the coordination messages issued previously..
..Overnight tonight, heavy rain and some embedded thunderstorms will occur across much of the area. There is a low possibility that an isolated strong or severe thunderstorm or two but nothing as widespread as originally indicated. A Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect through Friday Morning for the area of moderate to heavy rainfall that could cause some flooding issues over the area..
..SKYWARN Amateur Radio Operations at NWS Taunton will likely secure by 930-1000 PM. Below is the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement..

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Thursday July 26th, 2012 Major/Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Potential

July 26, 2012 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Potentially significant severe weather outbreak remains likely for much of Southern New England Thursday Afternoon and Evening..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a Moderate Rick for Severe Weather for portions of Western New England with the remainder of Southern New England in a high-end slight risk for severe weather. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out particularly in the moderate risk area. NWS Taunton is in agreement with this threat..
..The severe weather threat timeframe timing remains similar to last night with the threat beginning after 3-4 PM for western areas and after 5-6 PM for eastern areas. It is noted that activity could last well into the evening and overnight hours..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 2 PM ET Thursday through late evening Thursday/early morning Friday..
..ARES/RACES Groups should closely monitor the progress of this situation and seek advice from their local leadership..

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a Moderate Rick for Severe Weather for portions of Western New England with the remainder of Southern New England in a high-end slight risk for severe weather. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out particularly in the moderate risk area. NWS Taunton is in agreement with this threat.

Reviewing computer models, radar and satellite data this morning, the warm front is moving across the region and will migrate northeastward past much of the NWS Taunton coverage area later this morning into midday. A weakening Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) is tracking over Eastern New York and will be responsible for showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm this morning particularly in Western New England. No severe weather is expected with this system. Initially, there will be cloud debris with this system that could last until midday/early afternoon Thursday.

All computer weather models are insistent on clearing out the region enough for heating and destabilization. Shear profiles will be very strong given the proximity of the warm front over the region and will allow for turning in the atmosphere. As this occurs, this will allow for scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. The threat timeframe remains similar to last night and will be after 3-4 PM in western parts of the area and after 5-6 PM in eastern parts of the area. Activity will last well into the evening hours Thursday into early Friday Morning. The potential is there for a significant/major severe weather outbreak for much of the region based on the location of the Moderate risk and high-end slight risk areas.

As always with severe weather scenarios, there are risks/caveats to the forecast for a significant outbreak particularly in New England and remember that isolated to scattered areas of significant issues typically occur in these scenarios meaning not all areas get hit. From a risks/caveats to the forecast point of view, there are two main caveats:

1.) Cloud debris doesn’t thin out as models predict holding back instability parameters and strength and/or coverage of severe weather.

2.) The position of the warm front doesn’t migrate as far northeast as current model trends indicate keeping portions of the region cooler. This is a less likely concern at this time.

Latest model trends and radar/sattelite data continue to indicate fairly strong indicators for a significant severe weather outbreak and this has led to the continuation of the rare issuance of a ‘moderate risk’ severe weather area for Western New England and a ‘high end slight risk’ severe weather area for the remainder of Southern New England in the 0600z Day-1 Convective Outlook.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 2 PM ET Thursday through late evening Thursday/early morning Friday. ARES/RACES Groups should closely monitor the progress of this situation and seek advice from their local leadership. This will be the last coordination message on this potentially significant severe weather outbreak. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and SPC Public Severe Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Public Severe Weather Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday July 26th, 2012 Major/Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Potential

July 26, 2012 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Potentially significant severe weather outbreak for much of Southern New England Thursday Afternoon and Evening..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western New England in a Moderate Risk for Severe Weather with the remainder of Southern New England in a high-end slight risk for severe weather. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out particularly in the moderate risk area. NWS Taunton is in agreement with this threat..
..The severe weather threat timeframe is after 3 PM for western areas and after 5 PM for eastern areas. It is noted that activity could last well into the evening and overnight hours..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 2 PM ET Thursday through late evening Thursday/early morning Friday..
..ARES/RACES Groups should closely monitor the progress of this situation and seek advice from their local leadership..

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western New England in a Moderate Risk for Severe Weather with the remainder of Southern New England in a high-end slight risk for severe weather. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out particularly in the moderate risk area. NWS Taunton is in agreement with this threat.

Reviewing computer models, radar and satellite data, overnight tonight into Thursday Morning, a warm front is draped across the region and will migrate northeastward during this timeframe. A Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) is expected to track somewhere across this warm frontal boundary during this period. This could come over Southern New England or possibly track to our north. Initially, there will be cloud debris with this system that could last until midday Thursday. This system is not expected to be severe and will likely weaken as it approaches the region.

All computer weather models are insistent on clearing out the region and that will allow for rapid heating and destabilization. Shear profiles will be very strong given the proximity of the warm front over the region and will allow for turning in the atmosphere. As this occurs, this will allow for scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. The threat timeframe will be after 3 PM in western parts of the area and after 5 PM in eastern parts of the area. Activity will last well into the evening hours Thursday into early Friday Morning. The potential is there for a significant/major severe weather outbreak for much of the region based on the location of the Moderate risk and high-end slight risk areas.

1.) Cloud debris doesn’t thin out as models predict holding back instability parameters.

2.) The position of the warm front doesn’t migrate as far northeast as current model trends indicate keeping portions of the region cooler.

At this time, there are fairly strong indicators based on the current computer weather models that a significant severe weather outbreak is possible leading to the rare issuance of a ‘moderate risk’ severe weather area for Western New England and a ‘high end slight risk’ severe weather area for the remainder of Southern New England approximately 24 hours away from the potential situation.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 2 PM ET Thursday through late evening Thursday/early morning Friday. ARES/RACES Groups should closely monitor the progress of this situation and seek advice from their local leadership. The next coordination message will be issued by 9 AM Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1207231732.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #4 – Tuesday 7/24/12 Severe Weather Potential

July 24, 2012 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..A few strong thunderstorms affected the region early this morning with winds up to 40 MPH, small hail, heavy downpours and frequent lightning..
..A Cold front will approach the region this afternoon and evening. The cold frontal timing is expected to be around the time of peak heating which will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has kept Central and Eastern New England in a Slight Risk of severe weather for late Tuesday Morning through Tuesday Evening and NWS Taunton is in agreement..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely late Tuesday Morning through Tuesday Evening..

Early this morning, a line of strong but non-severe thunderstorms went through the region bringing 40 MPH wind gusts, small hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours. This activity has moved offshore. Satellite imagery shows fairly clear skies to allow for heating and destabilization. Wind shear profiles and other severe weather parameters should be sufficient for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. It is noted that SPC has continued a slight risk for severe weather for Central and Eastern New England and this is the area to be watched for this afternoon and tonight.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely late Morning Tuesday through Tuesday Evening. This will be the last complete coordination message on this threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Tuesday 7/24/12 Severe Weather Potential

July 24, 2012 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Strong to Severe Thunderstorm activity stayed to the north and west of the NWS Taunton coverage area today..
..A Cold front will approach the region Tuesday. The timing of the cold front and whether or not it is near the time of peak heating will dictate the potential of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded Central and Eastern New England to a Slight Risk of severe weather for late Tuesday Morning through Tuesday Evening and NWS Taunton is in agreement..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely late Tuesday Morning through Tuesday Evening..

Today, severe weather stayed to the north and west of the NWS Taunton coverage area with a couple brief strong thunderstorms entering extreme Southwest New Hampshire and Western Massachusetts this evening. As we get into Tuesday, a cold front will approach the region from the west. The timing of this cold front will be key to severe weather potential. If it approaches too early, the severe weather threat could be mitigated, however, if it comes into the region in the late morning or afternoon timeframe, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding would be likely over the area. It is noted that SPC has placed portions of Central and Eastern New England in a Slight Risk for severe weather which is an upgrade from the prior Day-2 Convective Outlook and NWS Taunton is in agreement. By Tuesday Morning, we should have a better idea of the severe weather potential and timing of the cold front but it appears the severe weather potential for Tuesday is greater than Monday at this time.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely late Morning Tuesday through Tuesday Evening. The next coordination message will be issued by 9 AM ET Tuesday. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1207231732.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Monday 7/23/12 and Tuesday 7/24/12 Severe Weather Potential

July 23, 2012 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible over Interior Southern New England on Monday. Damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued 5% probabilities of severe weather over much of Southern and Eastern New England with a Slight Risk for severe weather over Western, Northern New York, most of Vermont, Northern New Hampshire, Western Maine now extending into extreme Southwest New Hampshire and extreme Western Massachusetts and NWS Taunton is in agreement..
..An additional potential for severe weather exists for Tuesday and will be covered in future coordination messages after the Monday Severe Weather Potential has passed..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible on Monday Afternoon and Evening and again on Tuesday Afternoon and evening..

At 700 AM Doppler Radar showed an area of showers and possibly embedded thunderstorms over South-Central and Southeast New York moving into Western New England with some additional shower activity in Eastern Massachusetts. Satellite imagery shows clearing north and west of this activity. Further upstream, a trough with some shower and thunderstorm activity is moving east-southeast from the Lake Huron area. This trough and activity in Lake Huron may be close enough to Southern New England for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. The threat timeframe will be during Monday Afternoon and evening. Low severe weather probabilities have been introduced by SPC for much of Southern New England with a Slight risk for severe weather over Western and Northern New York, most of Vermont, Northern New Hampshire, extreme Western Maine and now extending into extreme Southwest New Hampshire and Western Massachusetts. The proximity of the front, cloud cover, and wind shear over the area will determine the risk for severe weather for Monday Afternoon and Evening.

There is also the potential for severe weather on Tuesday. This will depend on the timing of the cold front over the area as well as wind shear and cloud cover over the region similar to Monday. This will be discussed in greater detail after the Monday severe weather potential has passed.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Monday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last complete coordination message on Monday’s severe weather potential. A shortened coordination message will be sent if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/latest.acus02.KWNS.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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