Storm Coordination Message #1 – Late Wednesday Night 3/6/13-Friday Morning 3/8/13 Coastal Storm Potential

Hello to all..

..Strong Coastal Storm will impact portions of Southern New England over a long period starting late Wednesday Night lasting through Friday Morning. Heavy Wet Snow, Strong to Damaging Winds, and several tidal cycles of coastal flooding are the primary threats..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from late Wednesday Night through Friday Morning for Northeast Connecticut, all of Rhode Island, Southern Worcester, Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth, Suffolk and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts for 6-10 inches of heavy wet snow, wind gusts to 50-55 MPH with higher gusts possible at the coast and the potential for scattered tree and wire damage and power outages due to the combination of strong winds and heavy wet snow..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Thursday Morning to Friday Morning for Hillsborough County NH, Essex, Middlesex and Northern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts for 6-10 inches of heavy wet snow and wind gusts to 35-40 MPH which may result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages due to the combination of strong winds and heavy wet snow..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect from Thursday Morning to Friday Morning for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands for several successive high tide cycles of moderate to possibly even pockets of major coastal flooding across the coastal flood watch area..
..There are still some higher than normal uncertainties at this time with the rain/snow line, extent of even higher winds greater than 55 MPH (offshore versus over land areas), amount of snowfall in the Winter Storm Watch areas and extent of heavy snowfall in northwest portions of the NWS Taunton coverage area including northwest portions of the Winter Storm Watch area..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are expected starting 8 AM Thursday Morning and lasting through at least late Thursday Night. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely be needed for the Friday Morning high tide cycle as well. Overnight operations Thursday Night may or may not be needed and will be evaluated as we get closer to this storm event..

The headlines of this coordination message detail the threats on an upcoming large and major coastal storm expected to affect Southern New England starting late Wednesday Night and lasting through early Friday Morning. There is somewhat higher uncertainty than normal at this time range though model solutions are getting into better agreement on storm impacts on Southern New England in the last several runs and hopefully the trend toward consensus will continue leading to higher confidence. The uncertainties at present are as follows:

1.) Position of the rain/snow line and amount of mixed preciptiation at the coastline. This could affect snowfall amounts and the extent of any tree and power line damage and power outages and where they occur. A closer storm track will push the heavier wet snow away from the coast with more of a wet snow/rain mix or more of a plain rain falling at the coast while a storm track further away from the coast puts coastal areas at more risk for heavier wet snow.

2.) Extent of strongest winds. Currently, winds are expected to be as high as 50-55 MPH at the coastline with 40-50 MPH gusts inland. A slightly closer storm track could bring stronger winds further inland and stronger wind speeds at the coast while a storm track further away may keep the strongest winds at the coast.

3.) Extent of coastal flooding impact will be greater with a closer storm track but at minimum several tide cycles of minor to moderate coastal flooding are likely with potentially greater impacts with a closer storm track. With the current storm track widespread moderate to pockets of major coastal flooding in East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands appears to be the likely scenario.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are expected starting 8 AM Thursday Morning and lasting through at least late Thursday Night. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely be needed for the Friday Morning high tide cycle as well. Overnight operations Thursday Night may or may not be needed and will be evaluated as we get closer to this storm event. The next coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and snowfall map:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Hello to all..

..Strong Coastal Storm will impact portions of Southern New England over a long period starting late Wednesday Night lasting through Friday Morning. Heavy Wet Snow, Strong to Damaging Winds, and several tidal cycles of coastal flooding are the primary threats..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from late Wednesday Night through Friday Morning for Northeast Connecticut, all of Rhode Island, Southern Worcester, Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth, Suffolk and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts for 6-10 inches of heavy wet snow, wind gusts to 50-55 MPH with higher gusts possible at the coast and the potential for scattered tree and wire damage and power outages due to the combination of strong winds and heavy wet snow..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Thursday Morning to Friday Morning for Hillsborough County NH, Essex, Middlesex and Northern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts for 6-10 inches of heavy wet snow and wind gusts to 35-40 MPH which may result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages due to the combination of strong winds and heavy wet snow..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect from Thursday Morning to Friday Morning for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands for several successive high tide cycles of moderate to possibly even pockets of major coastal flooding across the coastal flood watch area..
..There are still some higher than normal uncertainties at this time with the rain/snow line, extent of even higher winds greater than 55 MPH (offshore versus over land areas), amount of snowfall in the Winter Storm Watch areas and extent of heavy snowfall in northwest portions of the NWS Taunton coverage area including northwest portions of the Winter Storm Watch area..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are expected starting 8 AM Thursday Morning and lasting through at least late Thursday Night. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely be needed for the Friday Morning high tide cycle as well. Overnight operations Thursday Night may or may not be needed and will be evaluated as we get closer to this storm event..

The headlines of this coordination message detail the threats on an upcoming large and major coastal storm expected to affect Southern New England starting late Wednesday Night and lasting through early Friday Morning. There is somewhat higher uncertainty than normal at this time range though model solutions are getting into better agreement on storm impacts on Southern New England in the last several runs and hopefully the trend toward consensus will continue leading to higher confidence. The uncertainties at present are as follows:

1.) Position of the rain/snow line and amount of mixed preciptiation at the coastline. This could affect snowfall amounts and the extent of any tree and power line damage and power outages and where they occur. A closer storm track will push the heavier wet snow away from the coast with more of a wet snow/rain mix or more of a plain rain falling at the coast while a storm track further away from the coast puts coastal areas at more risk for heavier wet snow.

2.) Extent of strongest winds. Currently, winds are expected to be as high as 50-55 MPH at the coastline with 40-50 MPH gusts inland. A slightly closer storm track could bring stronger winds further inland and stronger wind speeds at the coast while a storm track further away may keep the strongest winds at the coast.

3.) Extent of coastal flooding impact will be greater with a closer storm track but at minimum several tide cycles of minor to moderate coastal flooding are likely with potentially greater impacts with a closer storm track. With the current storm track widespread moderate to pockets of major coastal flooding in East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands appears to be the likely scenario.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are expected starting 8 AM Thursday Morning and lasting through at least late Thursday Night. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely be needed for the Friday Morning high tide cycle as well. Overnight operations Thursday Night may or may not be needed and will be evaluated as we get closer to this storm event. The next coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and snowfall map:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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