Blizzard/Storm Coordination Message #4 – Tuesday Night 3/25/14-Wednesday 3/26/14 Winter Storm Event
Hello to all..
..Model Uncertainty Remains Higher Than Normal with Major Coastal Storm/Nor’easter that will attempt to take aim on portions of Southern New England, particularly Southeast New England with the threats of Heavy Snow, Near Blizzard to Blizzard Conditions and Strong to Damaging Winds Tuesday Night into Wednesday and the potential for minor to moderate Coastal Flooding at the time of the Wednesday Morning high tide on north and east facing coastal areas of Cape Cod and the Islands..
..A Blizzard Watch remains in effect for late Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Afternoon for Cape Cod and the Islands for a general 5-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts to 12″ on Outer Cape and potentially Nantucket Island and sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60-65 MPH and possibly higher gusts to hurricane force on Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket Island with the potential for blizzard conditions depending on the track of the storm. Isolated to Scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages are possible..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Morning for Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Newport County Rhode Island for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with wind gusts to 50 MPH and isolated higher gusts possible depending on how close the coastal storm tracks toward the coast. Considerable blowing and drifting snow possible along with isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect for the Wednesday Morning high tide for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands from late tonight through Wednesday Evening for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60-65 MPH and possibly higher gusts to hurricane force on Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket Island depending on how close the coastal storm tracks toward the region..
..Areas outside of the Winter Storm/Blizzard Watch area from the North Shore of Massachusetts and the Boston to Providence corridor through the Connecticut/Rhode Island border may see advisory level snowfall at this time but this will ultimately depend on the track of this major coastal storm/nor’easter and where the sharp cutoff between light snow and heavier accumulating snow lines up. Farther inland, little to no snow accumulation is expected..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton likely late Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Afternoon..
Model solutions still have a wide variance as of Tuesday Morning. The European model has been the most consistent with its track closest to but still southeast of the 40 North/70 West benchmark. The European model was joined by one of the American short-term models late Monday Afternoon and Evening on this closer storm track. This remains at odds with a second American and Canadian model and a second European model which has a more offshore track confining the impacts to Cape Cod and the Islands. Wobbles in the track guidance of as little as 50-100 miles will have significant impacts on the forecast as we have said from the start of tracking this system. A track 50-100 miles further west would mean impacts through much of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island with even greater impacts to Southeast New England. A track 50-100 miles further east would mean lighter impacts to the remainder of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island and the greatest impacts over Cape Cod and the Islands. As with many of our offshore systems this winter, there will be a sharp cutoff between heavier snow and strongest winds versus lighter winds and lighter snowfall. This will be monitored closely into Tuesday Evening. All models agree this is a powerful coastal storm/nor’easter and for that reason bears close monitoring across all of Eastern New England given uncertainties in the track guidance. The following represents the latest update of current thinking for this system and continue to indicate the most significant impacts would be over Cape Cod and the Islands as well as portions of Southeast Massachusetts and extreme Southeast Rhode Island. Confidence was still not high enough to convert Blizzard and Winter Storm Watches to Warnings, however, the High Wind threat for Cape Cod and the Islands is probably the highest confidence of the forecast to date.
A Blizzard Watch remains in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands for 5-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts of 12″ possible on Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket Island and sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60-65 MPH and possibly higher gusts to hurricane force on Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket Island and the potential for blizzard conditions depending on how close the coastal system passes through the region. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Afternoon for Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Newport County Rhode Island for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with wind gusts to 50 MPH causing considerable blowing and drifting of snow depending on how close the coastal system passes through the region. A Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect for the Wednesday Morning high tide for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for the potential of minor to moderate coastal flooding. For areas outside of the Winter Storm/Blizzard Watch area particularly from the North Shore of Massachusetts and the Boston to Providence corridor through the Connecticut/Rhode Island border, advisory level snow remains possible depending on the track of the major coastal storm and where the sharp cutoff between light snow and heavier accumulating snow lines up. Further west, little to no snow accumulation is expected.
It is noted that despite the offshore track of the system, one of the bigger concerns and highest confidence points of the forecast will be strong to damaging winds over Cape Cod and the Islands and the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages with wind gusts to 60-65 MPH and even a low probability of wind gusts to near hurricane force over the Outer Cape and Nantucket Island depending on how close the system tracks to the region. A High Wind Watch is now in effect from late tonight through Wednesday Afternoon for Cape Cod and the Islands given the confidence on the wind threat. Strong winds will also affect much of Southeast Massachusetts particularly at the coast with wind gusts up to 50 MPH possibly causing isolated tree and wire damage and power outages.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely late Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Afternoon. The next coordination message will be posted by 830 PM Tuesday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, High Wind Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all..
..Model Uncertainty Remains Higher Than Normal with Major Coastal Storm/Nor’easter that will attempt to take aim on portions of Southern New England, particularly Southeast New England with the threats of Heavy Snow, Near Blizzard to Blizzard Conditions and Strong to Damaging Winds Tuesday Night into Wednesday and the potential for minor to moderate Coastal Flooding at the time of the Wednesday Morning high tide on north and east facing coastal areas of Cape Cod and the Islands..
..A Blizzard Watch remains in effect for late Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Afternoon for Cape Cod and the Islands for a general 5-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts to 12″ on Outer Cape and potentially Nantucket Island and sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60-65 MPH and possibly higher gusts to hurricane force on Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket Island with the potential for blizzard conditions depending on the track of the storm. Isolated to Scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages are possible..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Morning for Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Newport County Rhode Island for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with wind gusts to 50 MPH and isolated higher gusts possible depending on how close the coastal storm tracks toward the coast. Considerable blowing and drifting snow possible along with isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect for the Wednesday Morning high tide for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands from late tonight through Wednesday Evening for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60-65 MPH and possibly higher gusts to hurricane force on Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket Island depending on how close the coastal storm tracks toward the region..
..Areas outside of the Winter Storm/Blizzard Watch area from the North Shore of Massachusetts and the Boston to Providence corridor through the Connecticut/Rhode Island border may see advisory level snowfall at this time but this will ultimately depend on the track of this major coastal storm/nor’easter and where the sharp cutoff between light snow and heavier accumulating snow lines up. Farther inland, little to no snow accumulation is expected..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton likely late Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Afternoon..
Model solutions still have a wide variance as of Tuesday Morning. The European model has been the most consistent with its track closest to but still southeast of the 40 North/70 West benchmark. The European model was joined by one of the American short-term models late Monday Afternoon and Evening on this closer storm track. This remains at odds with a second American and Canadian model and a second European model which has a more offshore track confining the impacts to Cape Cod and the Islands. Wobbles in the track guidance of as little as 50-100 miles will have significant impacts on the forecast as we have said from the start of tracking this system. A track 50-100 miles further west would mean impacts through much of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island with even greater impacts to Southeast New England. A track 50-100 miles further east would mean lighter impacts to the remainder of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island and the greatest impacts over Cape Cod and the Islands. As with many of our offshore systems this winter, there will be a sharp cutoff between heavier snow and strongest winds versus lighter winds and lighter snowfall. This will be monitored closely into Tuesday Evening. All models agree this is a powerful coastal storm/nor’easter and for that reason bears close monitoring across all of Eastern New England given uncertainties in the track guidance. The following represents the latest update of current thinking for this system and continue to indicate the most significant impacts would be over Cape Cod and the Islands as well as portions of Southeast Massachusetts and extreme Southeast Rhode Island. Confidence was still not high enough to convert Blizzard and Winter Storm Watches to Warnings, however, the High Wind threat for Cape Cod and the Islands is probably the highest confidence of the forecast to date.
A Blizzard Watch remains in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands for 5-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts of 12″ possible on Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket Island and sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60-65 MPH and possibly higher gusts to hurricane force on Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket Island and the potential for blizzard conditions depending on how close the coastal system passes through the region. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Afternoon for Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Newport County Rhode Island for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with wind gusts to 50 MPH causing considerable blowing and drifting of snow depending on how close the coastal system passes through the region. A Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect for the Wednesday Morning high tide for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for the potential of minor to moderate coastal flooding. For areas outside of the Winter Storm/Blizzard Watch area particularly from the North Shore of Massachusetts and the Boston to Providence corridor through the Connecticut/Rhode Island border, advisory level snow remains possible depending on the track of the major coastal storm and where the sharp cutoff between light snow and heavier accumulating snow lines up. Further west, little to no snow accumulation is expected.
It is noted that despite the offshore track of the system, one of the bigger concerns and highest confidence points of the forecast will be strong to damaging winds over Cape Cod and the Islands and the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages with wind gusts to 60-65 MPH and even a low probability of wind gusts to near hurricane force over the Outer Cape and Nantucket Island depending on how close the system tracks to the region. A High Wind Watch is now in effect from late tonight through Wednesday Afternoon for Cape Cod and the Islands given the confidence on the wind threat. Strong winds will also affect much of Southeast Massachusetts particularly at the coast with wind gusts up to 50 MPH possibly causing isolated tree and wire damage and power outages.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely late Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Afternoon. The next coordination message will be posted by 830 PM Tuesday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, High Wind Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box