February 2015 – Page 2

Blizzard Coordination Message #1 – Saturday Afternoon 2/14/15-Sunday Evening 2/15/15 Blizzard/Major Winter Storm Potential

February 13, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..After a round of light snow for Cape Cod and Nantucket, another Blizzard and Major Winter Storm is expected for the region Saturday Evening through Sunday Evening. Its impacts will be heightened by the prior major winter storms and blizzards from the past several weeks with the potential for significant impact..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through 7 AM Friday for Cape Cod and Nantucket for 2-4″ of snow. A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect through 2 PM Friday for Western Franklin, Western Hampshire and Western Hampden Counties for wind chill readings as low as 22 below zero. A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect from 3-11 AM Friday for Northern Connecticut, Worcester, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Hampshire, and Eastern Hampden Counties of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County Rhode Island for wind chill readings as low as 16 below zero. Bitter cold wind chills short of advisory criteria will affect the rest of Southern New England overnight through Friday Morning..
..A Blizzard Watch is in effect from Saturday Evening to Sunday Evening for Cape Cod, Nantucket, Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, and Eastern Plymouth Counties for 6-14″ of snow, higher amounts possible with adjustments to the snowfall forecast likely and sustained winds 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60-65 MPH..
..A Winter Storm Watch is in effect from Saturday Afternoon for All of Rhode Island, Bristol, West-Central Plymouth, Worcester, Western Norfolk, Middlesex and Western Essex Counties for 6-12″ of snow, higher amounts possible with adjustments to the snowfall forecast likely and sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts of 45-50 MPH likely causing a period of near blizzard conditions..
..Winter Storm Watches could be expanded into portions of Western New England in future updates. Minor to pockets of Moderate Coastal Flooding are possible at the time of high tide Sunday Morning..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor snowfall for Cape Cod and the Islands. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Evening. A complete coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard Watch/Winter Storm Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics Page detailing the light snow event for overnight into Friday Morning and will be updated to provide snowfall forecasts for this upcoming major winter storm/blizzard in future updates..
..ARES/RACES and other EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of this major winter storm/blizzard potential. Given snow already on the ground, roof loading etc., the impacts from this potential blizzard/major winter storm may be higher in the region given these factors..

NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics Page:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Thursday Afternoon 2/12/15-Friday 2/13/15 Light Snow Event – Saturday 2/14-Sunday 2/5 Major Winter Storm Potential

February 12, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..A Light Snowfall for Southern New England today through early Friday Morning with a Coating to 2″ across much of Southern New England but higher amounts reaching advisory criteria for Cape Cod and the Islands. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 1 PM this Afternoon to 7 AM Friday Morning for Cape Cod and the Islands for 2-4″ of snow..
..Bitterly Cold Air is expected overnight into Friday Afternoon over portions of interior Southern New England overnight into early Friday Afternoon. A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect from Midnight tonight to 1 PM Friday for Western Franklin, Western Hampshire and Western Hampden Counties for wind chill readings as low as 24 below zero. A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect from 3-11 AM Friday for Northern Connecticut, Worcester, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Hampshire, and Eastern Hampden Counties of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County Rhode Island for wind chill readings as low as 24 below zero. Bitter cold wind chills short of advisory criteria will affect the rest of Southern New England..
..Another in a series of significant major winter storms is likely Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Evening particularly for Eastern New England. The potential exists for heavy snow, strong to damaging winds, minor to moderate coastal flooding and potentially blizzard conditions. All SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators need to closely monitor the progress of this system. Given prior significant winter storms, all the snow that is currently on the ground and potential for significant additional accumulations, the impacts of this storm will be enhanced due to prior storms that have affected the area..
..If time allows, a post blizzard/storm coordination message will be posted covering the significant storms of the past. SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators with pictures from these prior storms are encouraged to relay pictures of damage, snowfall etc. as a reply to this message or to pics@nsradio.org. Please give the timeframe of the storm related photos if they were taken after a specific storm. Credit will be given to the spotters for those pictures unless the spotter indicates otherwise and they will be used in continuing post storm damage assessments and for storm related videos on a winter that has become historic for much of the region..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the light snowfall for today into Friday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Saturday Afternoon into Sunday. Further details will follow as we get closer to the event. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and NWS Taunton Snowfall Graphics:

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

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Storm Coordination Message #3 – Late Saturday Night 2/7/14-late Monday Night 2/9/14 Significant Winter Storm Potential

February 8, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..A prolonged significant winter storm has started its impacts on Southern New England and will continue through early Tuesday with 1-4″ of snow across much of Southern New England during the overnight hours Saturday into Sunday Morning..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect through 1 AM Tuesday Morning for Norfolk County Massachusetts north and west to the New Hampshire state border for a widespread 10-20″ snowfall with potential for an enhanced band of snowfall of 18-24″ in central and Northeast Massachusetts. That corridor could change as we get closer to the winter storm event. There will be some blowing and drifting snow in coastal portions of the warning area..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect through 1 AM Tuesday Morning for Northern Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island through Kent and Bristol Counties of Rhode Island and North-Central Bristol and North-Central Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for 10-14 inches of snow. There will be some blowing and drifting snow in coastal portions of the warning area..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect through 1 AM Tuesday Morning for Washington and Newport Counties of Rhode Island and Southern Bristol and Southern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for 6-10″ of snow and a trace of ice with a period of mixed precipitation in this area. There will be some blowing and drifting snow in coastal portions of the warning area depending upon the precipitation type when wind gusts of up to 40-45 MPH occur..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect through 1 AM Tuesday Morning for Barnstable County Massachusetts for 2-4″ of snow mainly on the upper Cape. In this area mixed precipitation and even rain will occur holding down snowfall amounts. Block Island Rhode Island, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket Island will receive even lighter snowfall amounts with a period of rain holding down snow amounts..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this winter storm over the next 2-day period..

Models have maintained a storm track conducive to heavy snowfall amounts over a prolonged period of time across Southern New England. There has been no significant change in previous thinking as the headlines depict the storm well though there has been a change along South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and Cape Cod. Across South Coastal Massachusetts/Rhode Island, Winter Storm Watches have been converted to Winter Storm Warnings for 6-10″ of snow and a trace of ice. This area should see mostly frozen precipitation based on current trends but will see a period of sleet/freezing rain and rain mix at the height of the storm as we get into Monday. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through 1 AM Tuesday Morning for Barnstable County Massachusetts where snowfall amounts will be held down to 2-4″ and mostly over the upper Cape with an extended period of sleet/freezing rain and rain.

Overnight into Sunday Morning, 1-4″ of snow has fallen in the region. Latest snowfall totals can be seen via the following link:

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nous41.KBOX.html

From a reporting perspective, snow that fell Saturday Night through the end of this storm early Tuesday Morning will be classified as one storm event. There will likely be a fairly significant break in the snow over much of the NWS Taunton coverage area over the course of Sunday but its all part of the same storm system so reports will be cumulative from Saturday Evening through early Tuesday Morning. The core and strongest part of the storm will be late Sunday Evening through early Tuesday Morning where snowfall rates will increase and snow should remain continuous over much of this timeframe. A band of heavier snow greater than 18″ is likely to setup over Central and Northeast Massachusetts. The exact location of that band is uncertain but will likely be over the Central/Northeast Mass area.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this winter storm over the next 2-day period. This will likely be the last coordination message on this prolonged winter storm barring a further upgrade to the situation. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

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Storm Coordination Message #2 – Late Saturday Night 2/7/14-late Monday Night 2/9/14 Significant Winter Storm Potential

February 8, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..A prolonged significant winter storm is expected for Southern New England late tonight through early Tuesday. Winter Storm Warnings issued and Winter Storm Watches expanded to the Southeast New England Coast..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 10 PM Saturday Evening through 1 AM Tuesday Morning for Norfolk County Massachusetts north and west to the New Hampshire state border for a widespread 12-18″ snowfall with potential for an enhanced band of snowfall of 18-24″ in the Boston to Bedford to Beverly to Lawrence corridor. That corridor could change as we get closer to the winter storm event. There will be some blowing and drifting snow in coastal portions of the warning area..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 10 PM Saturday Evening through 1 AM Tuesday Morning for Northern Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island through Kent and Bristol Counties of Rhode Island and North-Central Bristol and North-Central Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for 8-14 inches of snow. There will be some blowing and drifting snow in coastal portions of the warning area..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Sunday Morning to late Monday Night for Washington and Newport Counties of Rhode Island and Southern Bristol, Southern Plymouth and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts for 4-8″ of snow and a trace of ice with a period of mixed precipitation and rain possible in this area holding down snow amounts but may still reach warning thresholds. There will be some blowing and drifting snow in coastal portions of the warning area depending upon the precipitation type when wind gusts of up to 40-45 MPH occur. Block Island Rhode Island, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket Island will receive lighter snowfall amounts with a period of rain holding down snow amounts..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this winter storm over the next 2-day period..

Models have maintained a storm track conducive to heavy snowfall amounts over a prolonged period of time across Southern New England. The headlines depict the latest thinking based on current model runs. Winter Storm Warnings are now in effect for much of the NWS Taunton coverage area away from the south coast for a widespread 8-18″ snowfall with a band of 18-24″ snowfall somewhere in the warning area and currently projected to be over portions of Northeast Massachusetts including the metro Boston area. This could shift depending on the placement of the coastal front over the area. A Winter Storm Watch is now posted for South Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod for the Sunday Morning through late Monday Night timeframe for 4-8″ of snow. The islands are currently expected to remain below warning thresholds. In the watch area, the biggest question is how much mixed precipitation or rain occurs. This will likely hold down snowfall amounts but currently there is now a risk of meeting nominal warning thresholds.

Across coastal areas of the Winter Storm Warning area, there will be some strong wind gusts in the 30-45 MPH range which may allow for considerable blowing and drifting of snow. This could also occur along South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island if precipitation remains snow and the heaviest snow occurs when the strongest winds take place over the course of Monday.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this winter storm over the next 2-day period. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Sunday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Late Saturday Night 2/7/14-late Monday Night 2/9/14 Significant Winter Storm Potential

February 7, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Long Duration Winter Storm will bring significant snowfall to much of Southern New England away from the South Coast of Massachusetts/Rhode Island where lighter snow amounts are expected due to a mixture of precipitation over this area during the storm timeframe of late tonight through late Monday Night..
..A Winter Storm Watch is posted from late tonight through late Monday Night for North-Central Bristol and North Central Plymouth County Massachusetts and Kent and Bristol Counties of Rhode Island north and west through the rest of the NWS Taunton Coverage area. Amounts will range from 8-12″ across Northern Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island and Northern-Central Bristol and North-Central Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts with amounts of 10-16″ with isolated higher amounts over the remainder of the Winter Storm Watch area..
..Snowfall on Cape Cod and the Islands and the South Coasts of Massachusetts and Rhode Island will likely be 2-7″ of snow..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the entire storm duration for snowfall reports and changeover in precipitation type in southeast areas..

A long duration winter storm will bring significant snowfall to much of Southern New England away from the South Coasts of Massachusetts and Rhode Island. There will be periods of light snow Sunday with snow becoming steadier and heavier as we get into later Sunday Night into late Monday Night which will be the main impact timeframe of the storm and affecting both the Monday morning and evening commutes. The headlines of the coordination message depict the storm conditions. This storm is currently expected to have no coastal impacts. Winds with this storm may allow for gusts to 30-40 mph which may create some poor visibilities and some blowing and drifting snow.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the entire storm duration for snowfall reports and changeover in precipitation type. Another coordination message will be issued by 1000 PM Saturday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Graphics:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

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Storm Coordination Message #5 – Sunday Evening 2/1/15-Monday 2/2/15 Storm Potential

February 1, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Major Winter Storm on track for Southern New England late Sunday Night through late Monday Night. Most significant change to this coordination message was to update for the Coastal Flood Advisory in the headlines and to add that to paragraph 3 of this message. Remainder is unchanged..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 9 PM Sunday Evening through 1 AM Tuesday Morning from North-Central Rhode Island and Northern Bristol and Northern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts north and west through the NWS Taunton coverage area for 6-10 inches of snow in Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts and 10-14″ in the rest of the warning area. Both the Morning and Evening commutes are expected to be impacted with the morning commute having the most significant impact..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains effect for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Cape Cod for 4-8″ of snow and up to one-tenth inch of ice. There will be mixed precipitation in this area that will hold down snow amounts but allow for light ice accumulations. If precipitation remains all snow, higher snow amounts will be possible. Even with mixed precipitation, snow amounts will reach warning criteria and the combination of snow and ice will make for hazardous travel..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket and Block Island Rhode Island from 9 PM Sunday Evening through 1 AM Tuesday Morning for 2-5″ of snow and around a trace of ice accumulation..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 9 AM to Noon for Eastern Norfolk, Eastern Plymouth and Barnstable Counties for minor coastal flooding of shore roads that will likely slow down blizzard clean up. This is not expected to be a major coastal flood event..
..SKYWARN self-activation will monitor the major winter storm on Monday beginning in the 530-600 AM ET timeframe..

A storm system affecting the midwest will be making its way towards Southern New England late Sunday Night around Midnight in the west and after midnight in the east and lasting for much of the day Monday. This storm system will likely dump a significant snowfall on much of Southern New England. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 9 PM Sunday Evening through 1 AM Tuesday Morning from North-Central Rhode Island and Northern Bristol and Northern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts north and west through the NWS Taunton coverage area for 6-10 inches of snow in Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts and 10-14″ in the rest of the warning area. Both the Morning and Evening commutes are expected to be impacted with the morning commute having the most significant impact. Snowfall rates of 1-2″ per hour are expected with some blowing and drifting of snow especially in the coastal areas of the warning where wind gusts could reach 35-40 MPH.

A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Cape Cod for 4-8″ of snow and a tenth of an inch of ice. There will be mixed precipitation in this area that will hold down snow amounts but allow for light ice accumulations. If precipitation remains all snow, higher snow amounts will be possible. Even with mixed precipitation, snow amounts will reach warning criteria and the combination of snow and ice will make for hazardous travel. Strong wind gusts of 40-50 MPH will be possible towards afternoon and evening in this area as well.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 9 AM to Noon for Eastern Norfolk, Eastern Plymouth and Barnstable Counties for minor coastal flooding of shore roads that will likely slow down blizzard clean up. This is not expected to be a major coastal flood event but vulnerable shore locations may be impacted with shore road flooding and this could affect blizzard clean up. The strongest winds are expected to remain near low tide and by the time the late evening high tide occurs, winds will be offshore. The best chance for any minor coastal flooding appears to be the late Monday Morning high tide after adjusting timing with the models.

SKYWARN self-activation will monitor the major winter storm on Monday beginning in the 530-600 AM ET timeframe. This will be the last coordination message for this major winter storm as we move into operations mode. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics with snowfall totals for the upcoming system:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

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Storm Coordination Message #4 – Sunday Evening 2/1/15-Monday 2/2/15 Storm Potential

February 1, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Major Winter Storm on track for Southern New England late Sunday Night through late Monday Night..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 9 PM Sunday Evening through 1 AM Tuesday Morning from North-Central Rhode Island and Northern Bristol and Northern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts north and west through the NWS Taunton coverage area for 6-10 inches of snow in Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts and 10-14″ in the rest of the warning area. Both the Morning and Evening commutes are expected to be impacted with the morning commute having the most significant impact..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Cape Cod for 4-8″ of snow and up to one-tenth inch of ice. There will be mixed precipitation in this area that will hold down snow amounts but allow for light ice accumulations. If precipitation remains all snow, higher snow amounts will be possible. Even with mixed precipitation, snow amounts will reach warning criteria and the combination of snow and ice will make for hazardous travel..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket and Block Island Rhode Island from 9 PM Sunday Evening through 1 AM Tuesday Morning for 2-5″ of snow and around a trace of ice accumulation..
..Minor coastal flooding are possible for the Monday Evening high tide and is still being monitored..
..SKYWARN self-activation will monitor the major winter storm on Monday beginning in the 530-600 AM ET timeframe..

Minor to possibly even isolated pockets of moderate coastal flooding are possible Monday Evening and will be monitored. This is especially true for locations significantly impacted by the blizzard where coastal barrier structures are weakened. Further details will become known based on storm track and rate of intensification near our region. The strongest winds appear to still coincide with low tide but a shift in a few hours could cause a more general risk for minor coastal flooding.

SKYWARN self-activation will monitor the major winter storm on Monday beginning in the 530-600 AM ET timeframe. The next coordination message will be posted by 5:30 PM Sunday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics with snowfall totals for the upcoming system:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

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