August 2015

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday August 25th 2015 – Severe Weather Potential

August 25, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible to likely across much of Southern New England with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats from late Tuesday Morning through Tuesday Evening. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues a marginal risk for severe weather across much of Southern New England..
..Morning round of strong thunderstorms affected Northwest Massachusetts into Southern New Hampshire with heavy rainfall. Morning activity didn’t occur in Southeast New England as activity was further offshore than modeled..
..Degree of severe weather potential will hinge on amount of clearing over Southern New England. Clearing is expected to occur from southwest to northeast across Southern New England which will increase instability with sufficiently strong winds aloft for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm activity depending on the timing of the cold front..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 11 AM Tuesday Morning through Tuesday Evening..

Tuesday has been the signature day for potential severe weather events and this Tuesday looks like no exception. SKYWARN Self-Activation monitored a round of strong thunderstorms that affected Franklin County Massachusetts and went into Southern New Hampshire. These thunderstorms resulted in 2-3″ of rainfall in some areas with one isolated tree and wire damage report in Hawley Mass and some street/basement flooding issues. No activity occurred in Southeast New England as strong thunderstorms stayed well offshore of that area.

Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms will be possible to likely ahead of a slow moving cold front which will bring cooler and lesser humid air to the region. The threat will be continent on the amount of clearing and satellite imagery shows clearing should take place across Southern New England from southwest to northeast. The threat is also contingent on the timing of the slow moving cold front into our area. The clearing and current expected timing of the cold front should allow for sufficient destabilization with strong winds aloft to result in isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 11 AM EDT Tuesday. This will be the last coordination message on Tuesday’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=box&wwa=hazardous%20weather%20outlook

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday August 25th, 2015 Severe Weather Potential

August 24, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible across much of Southern New England with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats..
..There could be two rounds of activity, one round in the morning in Southeastern New England and one affecting Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts, Northwest Rhode Island and Connecticut in the afternoon and early evening. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..At this time, SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any morning strong to severe thunderstorm activity. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely anytime after 1 PM EDT Tuesday..

Tuesday has been the signature day for potential severe weather events and this Tuesday looks like no exception. Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of a slow moving cold front which will bring cooler and lesser humid air to the region. At this time, two rounds of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could affect the region. The first round potentially over Southeast New England and the second round across much of Southern New England north and west of a Boston to Providence line and weakening as it approaches coastal Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. SPC has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather.

Key items regarding the severe weather potential for this Tuesday includes:
1.) Amount of morning convection and its ultimate intensity.
2.) Amount of clearing behind any morning convection that affects the region.
3.) Timing of the cold front through Southern New England.

At this time, SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any morning strong to severe thunderstorm activity. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely anytime after 1 PM EDT Tuesday. This will be reviewed again on Tuesday Morning. Another coordination message, possibly a shortened one depending on the extent of any morning convection, will be posted by 9 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2015/day2otlk_20150824_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message – Saturday August 15th, 2015 Severe Weather Potential

August 15, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered thunderstorms possible today across much of Southern New England particularly north of the Mass Pike but cannot be ruled out elsewhere anytime after 2 PM through early evening. Heavy rainfall and urban/poor drainage flooding is the main threat but strong winds and hail could occur in the strongest thunderstorms..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor thunderstorm development through the day today. This will be the only coordination message on today’s thunderstorm potential unless a significant upgrade occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion regarding today’s thunderstorm potential..

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Special Announcement: SKYWARN Training Class at the Boxboro New England Division ARRL Convention – Friday 8/21/15 1-4 PM

August 13, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

A special SKYWARN Training class will be offered at the Boxboro New England Division Amateur Radio ARRL Convention on Friday August 21st, 2015 from 1-4 PM. Details are as follows:

Friday August 21st, 2015: 1-4 PM:
Holiday Inn – Boxborough – Seminar Room
242 Adams Place
Boxborough Mass.
Taught by: Amateur Radio Coordinator
Registration: None Required
Sponsorship: This training is being run in conjunction with the ARRL
New England Division Convention and Ham Radio Show. This is being done prior
to the Hamfest starting and no admission will be charged on Friday for those
interested in attending this SKYWARN Training session.

The Boxboro ARRL New England Division Convention will have various forums on SKYWARN, the Amateur Radio Emergency Services (ARES) and other interesting seminars. There will also be new and used Amateur Radio gear from both Amateur Radio manufacturers as well as an Amateur Radio flea market. The convention extends into the weekend on both Saturday August 22nd-Sunday August 23rd. Further details on the ARRL New England Division Convention can be seen at http://www.boxboro.org/

Please spread the word on this SKYWARN Training Class. Thanks to all!

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday August 11th Severe Weather Potential

August 11, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms and some strong winds up to or slightly over 40 MPH will continue through Midday in western parts of Southern New England and through early afternoon in eastern areas ahead of a warm front. After this moves through, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England with heavy rainfall and urban and poor drainage flooding, strong to damaging winds as the main threats. Cannot rule out an isolated brief tornado if enough destabilization occurs and can tap into the strong wind shear fields and turning in the atmosphere..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions through Noon today. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will start around or shortly after Noon today for the severe weather potential..

At 1025 AM, Doppler Radar showed rain, heavy at times with embedded thunderstorms moving through Southern New England. The rain is moving along and should be out of western areas by Noon and eastern areas by around 2 PM this afternoon. Rainfall amounts of 1-1.5″ with higher amounts are possible with this initial rainfall. After this rainfall, a cold front will be approaching Southern New England. Shear values may weaken a bit with time but still remain fairly strong with some turning in the atmosphere noted. Any cloud breaks and sunshine after the rainfall that moves through the area will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and urban and poor drainage flooding and strong to damaging winds as the main threats. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out if enough destabilization occurs and can tap into the strong wind shear fields and turning in the atmosphere.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions through Noon today. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will start around or shortly after Noon today for the severe weather potential. This will be the last coordination message on today’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday August 11th, 2015 Severe Weather Potential

August 10, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Thunderstorms and rain showers with heavy downpours expected mid-late Tuesday Morning into Tuesday Afternoon with the additional threat of Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms later Tuesday Afternoon and evening. Urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are the primary threats with a secondary threat for strong to damaging winds and hail. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor morning activity. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting at Noon lasting through early evening..

A storm system will move into the Northeast bringing with it increased humidity and a round of showers and thunderstorms with the main threat of heavy rainfall bringing urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning. There will be strong winds aloft, however, and if enough instability can occur either with a break in shower and thunderstorm activity with some cloud breaks to cause heating or if the wind shear and storm system can overcome modest instability, there would be a threat for pockets of wind damage and hail from isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather Tuesday.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor morning activity. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting at Noon and lasting through early evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2015/day2otlk_20150810_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Post Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday August 4th, 2015 Severe Weather Event

August 5, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Major Severe Weather Outbreak affects Southern New England on Tuesday August 4th, 2015 in two distinct areas and timeframes. Tuesday Morning across Rhode Island, Southeast Massachusetts and parts of the North Shore Massachusetts and Tuesday Afternoon into Early Evening across parts of Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts including the Metro Boston area with very large hail affecting a large urbanized area along with downed trees and wires and wind damage and sightings of wall/funnel clouds near the Athol/Barre MA area and in the Burlington, MA area..
..At the height of the outbreak in Rhode Island, 183000 people were without power with 14000 without power in Southeast Massachusetts during the morning outbreak. Across Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts, scattered power outages and tree and wire damage occurred but very large hail was common across many pockets of North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts including the Metro Boston area..
..A HUGE THANK YOU goes out to all SKYWARN Spotters, Amateur Radio Operators and relays into the areas most affected by severe weather. Your reports, pictures etc. provide a huge situational awareness footprint to the National Weather Service, local and state public safety and emergency management and the broadcast media. Any additional reports of damage or pictures of hail, wind and other storm damage and flooding can be sent as a reply to this email, via our Facebook and Twitter feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the Spotter/Amateur Radio Operator unless otherwise noted..
..Another Post Severe Weather Coordination Message May Be Posted Later Wednesday Evening or Thursday Morning..
..Below are links to the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report summaries and to the WX1BOX Facebook Photo albums on the Tuesday Morning and Tuesday Afternoon August 4th, 2015 Severe Weather Outbreaks..

WX1BOX Facebook Page Photo Album 8/4/15 – Tuesday Afternoon Severe Weather Photos:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.1032166623484022.1073741870.216287391738620&type=3

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report – 8/4/15 – Tuesday Afternoon Summary:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/LSR_8_4_15_PM.txt

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report – 8/4/15 – Tuesday Morning Summary:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.1032031100164241.1073741869.216287391738620&type=3

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report – 8/4/15 – Tuesday Morning Summary:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/LSR_8_4_15_AM.txt

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday August 4th 2015 Severe Weather Potential and Post Severe Weather from Tuesday Morning

August 4, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Severe Weather Outbreak slams Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts from 600-900 AM with significant wind damage also noted in the north shore of Massachusetts as well. Pictures of damage can be sent as a reply to this email, to pics@nsradio.org or via Facebook/Twitter feeds..
..New round of severe weather likely across all of Southern New England. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 130 PM. This email is brief to get ops running at NWS Taunton as soon as possible. Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 800 PM for Worcester, Essex, Middlesex, Norfolk, Suffolk, Franklin, Hampden and Hampshire Counties of Massachusetts. Watches could be expanded to other areas later today..

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday Evening 8/3/15-Tuesday Evening 8/4/15 Severe Weather Potential

August 3, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible especially very late tonight and over the course of the day Tuesday Through late afternoon/early evening Tuesday. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall are the main threats. Coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms as well as the timing are very uncertain..
..Nocturnal or overnight convection is possible or convection could be more prevalent during the morning through mid-late afternoon hours on Tuesday and will be monitored closely. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed extreme Western Massachusetts in a Slight Risk for severe weather with a marginal risk of severe weather out to the CT River Valley of Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut through 800 AM EDT Tuesday. SPC has placed much of Southern New England along or just west of the CT River Valley east through the Southern New England coast in a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather with an upgrade to a slight risk of severe weather possible..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather threat this evening through the overnight hours. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible as early as the first part of Tuesday Morning lasting through early Tuesday Evening..

A complex thunderstorm and severe weather situation is evolving for Southern New England beginning this Monday Evening and lasting through early Tuesday Evening. One marginally severe thunderstorm was warned on for Western Franklin County Massachusetts earlier this Monday Evening. Any reports from that storm is welcomed. A cold front is slowing down and working its way across New York State and Northern New England. Much of the severe weather and thunderstorm activity has stayed north and west of the NWS Taunton coverage area except for the one cell that went into Western Franklin County Massachusetts. It is anticipated that much of the activity for this evening will stay west of the NWS Taunton coverage area through around midnight.

As we move towards midnight Tuesday and the overnight hours, instability will actually increase despite it being nighttime as dewpoints increase. The front will continue to make progress towards Southern New England. This may allow thunderstorm activity to move further south and east into parts of the NWS Taunton coverage area. Typically, it is difficult to get strong to severe thunderstorms into this area during this timeframe but it is possible that isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could occur during the overnight hours in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut as the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook highlights. They also could remain west and north of these areas through the night.

Moving on to the Tuesday Morning near or after daybreak into the early evening hours, if any thunderstorm activity or cloud debris upstream does not occur, the atmosphere would be allow to destabilize. The cold front would then be closer to Southern New England to provide a triggering mechanism. This could set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across much of Southern New England over the current SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook marginal risk area. As the Day-2 outlook highlights, how upstream convection evolves across Southern New England will affect any severe weather threat for Tuesday and there remains uncertainties. If activity remains north and west and conditions are able to destabilize with sufficient sunshine to allow for heating, an upgrade to a slight risk of severe weather may be needed. If cloud cover or thunderstorm activity occurs during the overnight along with any isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in western areas, the severe weather potential for Tuesday will be more marginal in nature. The evolution of any thunderstorms overnight will determine any severe weather potential on Tuesday. It is noted that the severe weather timeframe for Tuesday may be earlier than the typical timeframe for severe weather depending on how things evolve overnight with any thunderstorm activity as well as the front’s movement toward the region. Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could potentially start occurring as early as mid-late Tuesday morning through early Tuesday Evening.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather threat this evening through the overnight hours. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible as early as the first part of Tuesday Morning lasting through early Tuesday Evening. Depending on any overnight convection, a full coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Tuesday Morning. If there is overnight convection, a shortened coordination message may be issued if time allows and also if ops at NWS Taunton are initiated during the overnight or Tuesday Morning timeframe. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2015/day2otlk_20150803_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday August 1st 2015

August 1, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible today across Central and Eastern New England. Strong to possibly damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. Threat timeframe is anytime between 1-9 PM..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions through this evening..

At 1240 PM EDT, Doppler Radar showed an area of showers and thunderstorms organizing at the New York/Massachusetts/Connecticut borders with a growing cumulus cloud field spreading in from west to east. This could set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. There are strong winds aloft as well as cooling aloft in the upper levels of the atmosphere favoring storm development. The level of moisture/dewpoint levels over the region could inhibit storm development. Given the tendency for cold air pools in the upper level of the atmosphere can compensate for inhibiting factors, a coordination message is warranted.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions through this evening. This will be the only coordination message on today’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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