Storm and Tropical Storm Joaquin Coordination Message #2 – Late Tuesday Night 9/29/15-Early Thursday Moning 10/1/15 Storm Potential

Hello to all..

..Active Weather Pattern for the next few days in Southern New England. Starting with a storm system from Wednesday into Thursday along a cold front and then attention turns to Tropical Storm Joaquin just north of the Bahamas..
..A Flood Watch remains in effect for late tonight through Thursday Morning for Northern Connecticut and Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Worcester, Middlesex and Essex Counties of Massachusetts for 2-4″ of rain and the potential of urban, poor drainage and low lying flooding and the possibility of small river and stream flooding. Mainstem rivers should remain in their banks. Strong winds are also possible in any convective activity across much of the region during the storm late tonight through early Thursday Morning with the potential for isolated pockets of tree and wire damage..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island including Bristol, Eastern Kent and Southeast Providence Counties Rhode Island and Southern Bristol County Massachusetts from 8 AM-Noon for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Wednesday Morning due to southerly/southeast wind flow. Minor to pockets of moderate coastal flooding are possible at the time of high tide Thursday and Friday across East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands as winds shift to the northeast.
..Tropical Storm Joaquin will bear watching as we get into late this week through the weekend. Joaquin is expected to reach hurricane strength within the next day or so. Track variance is very wide at this time and will likely narrow down in the next 24 hour period..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Wednesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible on later Wednesday into Wednesday Night. Specific timeframes for any ops remain under review. Additional activations are possible near the time of high tide for several days this week along with during any rounds of heavy rainfall..

After a very quiet period of weather for most of September, the weather will become quite active late tonight through early Thursday Morning with the potential for active weather through the weekend. A Flood Watch remains in effect for Northern Connecticut and Western, Central, and Northeast Massachusetts for late tonight through early Thursday Morning for 2-4″ of rain and the potential for urban, low-lying and poor drainage flooding and possibly small river and stream flooding. Other areas could see 1-2″ of rainfall. Strong winds will be possible in any convective activity that occurs with the potential for isolated pockets of tree and wire damage during this storm. It is noted model trends have been north and west with the heaviest rainfall with some of it occurring north and west of the NWS Taunton coverage area but these axes of heavy rainfall could also occur in more convective showers and possible thunderstorms over Southern New England and will bear watching.

Winds on Wednesday are now expected to remain southerly or southeast. This means the area to watch for coastal flooding on Wednesday will be over South Coastal Massachusetts. A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island including Bristol, Eastern Kent and Southeast Providence Counties Rhode Island and Southern Bristol County Massachusetts from 8 AM-Noon for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Wednesday Morning due to southerly/southeast wind flow. Minor to pockets of moderate coastal flooding are possible at the time of high tide Thursday and Friday across East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands as wind shift to the northeast.

Tropical Storm Joaquin will bear watching as we get into late this week through the weekend. There is high uncertainty right now regarding the track of Joaquin with storm tracks as far east as Bermuda and other models suggesting a US East Coast threat. Future model runs in the next 24 hour period will best discern any threat from Joaquin for the weekend time period. There is a slight bias currently towards model tracks closer to the US East Coast at the time of this coordination message issuance but could change over the next 24 hours.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Wednesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible on later Wednesday into Wednesday Night. Specific timeframes for any ops remain under review. Additional activations are possible near the time of high tide for several days this week along with during any rounds of heavy rainfall. Another coordination message will be posted either Wednesday Morning depending on storm operations or Wednesday Evening. A shortened coordination message could also be issued if Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated during the day for Wednesday for the storm. Below is the NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook as well as the Tropical Storm Joaquin advisory information:

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Rip Current Risk Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Tropical Storm Joaquin Advisory Information:

Tropical Storm Joaquin Public Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Joaquin Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Joaquin Forecast/Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Joaquin Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all..

..Active Weather Pattern for the next few days in Southern New England. Starting with a storm system from Wednesday into Thursday along a cold front and then attention turns to Tropical Storm Joaquin just north of the Bahamas..
..A Flood Watch remains in effect for late tonight through Thursday Morning for Northern Connecticut and Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Worcester, Middlesex and Essex Counties of Massachusetts for 2-4″ of rain and the potential of urban, poor drainage and low lying flooding and the possibility of small river and stream flooding. Mainstem rivers should remain in their banks. Strong winds are also possible in any convective activity across much of the region during the storm late tonight through early Thursday Morning with the potential for isolated pockets of tree and wire damage..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island including Bristol, Eastern Kent and Southeast Providence Counties Rhode Island and Southern Bristol County Massachusetts from 8 AM-Noon for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Wednesday Morning due to southerly/southeast wind flow. Minor to pockets of moderate coastal flooding are possible at the time of high tide Thursday and Friday across East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands as winds shift to the northeast.
..Tropical Storm Joaquin will bear watching as we get into late this week through the weekend. Joaquin is expected to reach hurricane strength within the next day or so. Track variance is very wide at this time and will likely narrow down in the next 24 hour period..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Wednesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible on later Wednesday into Wednesday Night. Specific timeframes for any ops remain under review. Additional activations are possible near the time of high tide for several days this week along with during any rounds of heavy rainfall..

After a very quiet period of weather for most of September, the weather will become quite active late tonight through early Thursday Morning with the potential for active weather through the weekend. A Flood Watch remains in effect for Northern Connecticut and Western, Central, and Northeast Massachusetts for late tonight through early Thursday Morning for 2-4″ of rain and the potential for urban, low-lying and poor drainage flooding and possibly small river and stream flooding. Other areas could see 1-2″ of rainfall. Strong winds will be possible in any convective activity that occurs with the potential for isolated pockets of tree and wire damage during this storm. It is noted model trends have been north and west with the heaviest rainfall with some of it occurring north and west of the NWS Taunton coverage area but these axes of heavy rainfall could also occur in more convective showers and possible thunderstorms over Southern New England and will bear watching.

Winds on Wednesday are now expected to remain southerly or southeast. This means the area to watch for coastal flooding on Wednesday will be over South Coastal Massachusetts. A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island including Bristol, Eastern Kent and Southeast Providence Counties Rhode Island and Southern Bristol County Massachusetts from 8 AM-Noon for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Wednesday Morning due to southerly/southeast wind flow. Minor to pockets of moderate coastal flooding are possible at the time of high tide Thursday and Friday across East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands as wind shift to the northeast.

Tropical Storm Joaquin will bear watching as we get into late this week through the weekend. There is high uncertainty right now regarding the track of Joaquin with storm tracks as far east as Bermuda and other models suggesting a US East Coast threat. Future model runs in the next 24 hour period will best discern any threat from Joaquin for the weekend time period. There is a slight bias currently towards model tracks closer to the US East Coast at the time of this coordination message issuance but could change over the next 24 hours.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Wednesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible on later Wednesday into Wednesday Night. Specific timeframes for any ops remain under review. Additional activations are possible near the time of high tide for several days this week along with during any rounds of heavy rainfall. Another coordination message will be posted either Wednesday Morning depending on storm operations or Wednesday Evening. A shortened coordination message could also be issued if Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated during the day for Wednesday for the storm. Below is the NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook as well as the Tropical Storm Joaquin advisory information:

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Rip Current Risk Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Tropical Storm Joaquin Advisory Information:

Tropical Storm Joaquin Public Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Joaquin Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Joaquin Forecast/Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Joaquin Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Leave a Reply