Storm and Hurricane Joaquin Coordination Message #6

October 2, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Storm system for Friday into early Saturday will have the potential to bring heavy rainfall and strong winds to Southeast New England and another threat of minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Friday Afternoon for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 2 PM Friday to 11 AM Saturday for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH. A Wind Advisory is now in effect through 3 PM Saturday for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH for Nantucket Island. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI from 2 PM Friday through 11 AM Saturday for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH. These winds could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. Wind Gusts in East and South Coastal of Massachusetts may reach 40 MPH through the day Friday into Saturday Morning..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands from 1-5 PM EDT Friday Afternoon for minor coastal flooding at the time of the Friday Afternoon high tide..
..Focus then shifts to Hurricane Joaquin. Models consensus has shifted east over the course of Thursday but there is still wide model spread and we remain around 3-4 days out from impact, if any, from Joaquin and interests in Southern New England should closely monitor the progress of Joaquin..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the Friday storm system. SKYWARN Activation status for late this weekend into early next week will depend on storm conditions and the timing and any threat of Hurricane Joaquin..

Another storm system will have the potential to bring strong winds and another 1-3″ of rainfall. At this time, this looks centered across Southeast New England to maybe as far north as the Mass Pike and south to the coast. A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 2 PM Friday to 11 AM Saturday for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH. A Wind Advisory is now in effect through 3 PM Saturday for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH for Nantucket Island. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI from 2 PM Friday through 11 AM Saturday for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH. These winds could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. Wind Gusts in East and South Coastal of Massachusetts may reach 40 MPH through the day Friday into Saturday Morning.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands from 1-5 PM EDT Friday Afternoon for minor coastal flooding at the time of the Friday Afternoon high tide. The stronger winds especially over Cape Cod and the Islands may result in a few more minor coastal flood reports than what occurred Thursday.

This brings us to the tougher part of the time period of active weather which is Hurricane Joaquin. Joaquin remains a major hurricane and is pummeling the Bahamas with an extended period of hurricane force conditions. Joaquin is expected to hold its intensity over the next couple days followed by slow weakening. Overnight, some of the models, including the European model have trended a bit more west. It is unclear if this trend will continue or will stop and remain an offshore solution and there still is a larger spread than normal in the different model guidance. More model runs from today will help lend confidence into the track of Joaquin. We remind everyone that impacts, if any, from Hurricane Joaquin are still 3-4 days out and the interaction of Joaquin with the stalled out cold front, an upper low moving into the Southeast US and the high pressure system to the east is quite complex and fluctuations in model tracks may continue to occur. Interests in Southern New England should continue to monitor the track of Hurricane Joaquin through midday Saturday to see if the current trend holds or if changes occur. Additional synoptic scale missions will occur today into Friday with data ingested into the next model suites which should hopefully provide better guidance and better consensus in the model data. The key messages as listed in the Technical Forecast Discussion from the National Hurricane Center best describe the concerns for Hurricane Joaquin particularly with the active weather pattern of this week that has developed over the region.

It is noted that National Hurricane Center Director, Dr. Rick Knabb and FEMA Administrator, KK4INZ-Craig Fugate both praised the efforts of WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, and the Hurricane Watch Net which are active with Hurricane Joaquin pummeling the Bahamas. The VoIP Hurricane Net has no paths directly to Amateur Radio Operators in the Bahamas but have been monitoring social media and the storm bloggers site, stormcarib.com to gather additional reports from the Bahamas. Links to the NHC director’s comments, KK4INZ-Craig Fugate’s comments and the Hurricane Net Operations can be seen via the links below:

KK4INZ-Craig Fugate visit to WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
https://twitter.com/CraigatFEMA/status/649659043489935360

Dr. Rick Knabb – Director of National Hurricane Center Comments:
https://twitter.com/NHCDirector/status/649671276609585152

WX4NHC – Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the Friday storm system. SKYWARN Activation status for late this weekend into early next week will depend on storm conditions and the timing and any threat of Hurricane Joaquin. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 PM Friday. Below is the NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook followed by the National Hurricane Center Hurricane Joaquin Advisory Statements:

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Natipnal Hurricane Center – Hurricane Joaquin Advisory Information:

Hurricane Joaquin Public Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Forecast/Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
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