Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday July 7th, 2017 Flash Flood & Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Heavy Rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding from convective showers and thunderstorms and an isolated severe thunderstorm threat is possible across Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts Friday Morning through Friday Afternoon..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect from Friday Morning through Friday Afternoon for Rhode Island and Bristol, Plymouth and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts particularly near south coastal locations for urban and poor drainage flooding potential. The biggest uncertainty is whether or not heavy rainfall and thunderstorms clip portions of the Flash Flood Watch area or stay south of the Flash Flood Watch area..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor heavy rainfall and flash flood potential as well as for isolated severe weather potential in Southeast New England..

A warm front will be pushing through Southern New England Friday Morning into Friday Afternoon. This warm front could bring heavy rainfall in the form of convective showers and thunderstorms across Southeast New England. Models continue to struggle with the northward extent of the convective showers and thunderstorms. Some models bring the activity into Southeast New England and particularly south coastal locations while other models track the heaviest precipitation south of this region. Taking a consensus of the models currently, there appears to be enough of a risk for heavier convective showers or thunderstorms into Southeast New England which is prompting a Flash Flood Watch for Southeast New England area with the uncertainty in that it tracks further offshore to the south of the area. There is also a risk of an isolated severe thunderstorm with strong to damaging winds and perhaps even an isolated brief weak tornado or waterspout. This will again depend on the northward extent of the warm front into the area and the ability for thunderstorms to organize with the warm front.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor heavy rainfall and flash flood potential as well as for isolated severe weather potential. This could be the last coordination message on this flash flood and severe weather potential for Friday depending on the timing of the convective showers and thunderstorms into the region or if time allows another message will be posted by 9 AM Friday Morning. Also, a shortened coordination message will be posted if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch statement, Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box


Hello to all…

..Heavy Rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding from convective showers and thunderstorms and an isolated severe thunderstorm threat is possible across Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts Friday Morning through Friday Afternoon..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect from Friday Morning through Friday Afternoon for Rhode Island and Bristol, Plymouth and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts particularly near south coastal locations for urban and poor drainage flooding potential. The biggest uncertainty is whether or not heavy rainfall and thunderstorms clip portions of the Flash Flood Watch area or stay south of the Flash Flood Watch area..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor heavy rainfall and flash flood potential as well as for isolated severe weather potential in Southeast New England..

A warm front will be pushing through Southern New England Friday Morning into Friday Afternoon. This warm front could bring heavy rainfall in the form of convective showers and thunderstorms across Southeast New England. Models continue to struggle with the northward extent of the convective showers and thunderstorms. Some models bring the activity into Southeast New England and particularly south coastal locations while other models track the heaviest precipitation south of this region. Taking a consensus of the models currently, there appears to be enough of a risk for heavier convective showers or thunderstorms into Southeast New England which is prompting a Flash Flood Watch for Southeast New England area with the uncertainty in that it tracks further offshore to the south of the area. There is also a risk of an isolated severe thunderstorm with strong to damaging winds and perhaps even an isolated brief weak tornado or waterspout. This will again depend on the northward extent of the warm front into the area and the ability for thunderstorms to organize with the warm front.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor heavy rainfall and flash flood potential as well as for isolated severe weather potential. This could be the last coordination message on this flash flood and severe weather potential for Friday depending on the timing of the convective showers and thunderstorms into the region or if time allows another message will be posted by 9 AM Friday Morning. Also, a shortened coordination message will be posted if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch statement, Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box


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