October 2020

Storm Coordination Message #2 – Thursday-Friday 10/29/20-10/30/20 Coastal Storm Hazards

October 29, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Hurricane Zeta, now a strong post tropical cyclone will bring beneficial soaking rainfall but also strong to damaging winds in Southeast New England and a period of wet snow with light accumulations to the region..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 4 AM to 12 PM EDT Friday for Northern Connecticut, Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County Rhode Island for 1-3″ of snow with 3-4″ snow possible in some higher terrain locations. If amounts of 3-4″ or more occur in a large enough area, the wet snow combined with leaves on the trees will have the potential to cause isolated pockets of tree and power line damage and isolated power outages..
..Areas outside of the Winter Weather Advisory will have snowfall amounts of a coating to 1″ on grassy services in portions of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island particularly away from the coast..
..A Wind Advisory is in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands from 10 PM Thursday Evening through 2 PM Friday Afternoon for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH and isolated higher gusts possible. Elsewhere along the Southeast New England coast wind gusts to 40 MPH with isolated higher gusts are possible. These winds will cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..Widespread rainfall of 1-2″ with isolated higher amounts will occur across Southern New England..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rainfall amounts, snowfall amounts, changeover in precipitation type and measured wind gust and wind damage reports meeting the reportable criteria late Thursday Night through Friday Mid-Afternoon..

Hurricane Zeta now a strong post tropical cyclone is producing beneficial rainfall over much of Southern New England today. As it gets closer to the region, Zeta will wrap colder air into the system. This will allow for rain to change to snow in interior Southern New England. Winds will increase along coastal Southeast New England late tonight through Friday Mid-Afternoon. The headlines depict the current thinking with a greater risk for some snow amounts of 3″ with isolated higher amounts in the higher terrain resulting in Winter Weather Advisories being issued. Key factors for this storm include:

1.) The changeover timing of rain to snow and how heavy that precipitation falls after changeover. This will determine snowfall amounts. If amounts of 3″ or higher than 3″ occurs, this will increase the risk for isolated pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages due to the wet heavy nature of the snow. The risk of 3″ or more amounts in some areas have increased and this aspect will bear close watching.
2.) Winds along the southeast coastal areas and if they are a bit stronger given Zeta’s initially higher intensity when it made landfall.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rainfall amounts, snowfall amounts and measured wind gust and wind damage reports meeting the reportable criteria late Thursday Night through Friday Mid-Afternoon. This will be the last coordination message on this storm event as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Wind Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Snowfall and Rainfall Maps:

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Boston/Norton Rainfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/crh/pqpf?sid=box

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Uncategorized

Storm Coordination Message #1 – Thursday 10/29/20-Friday 10/30/20 – Coastal Storm Hazards

October 29, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Hurricane Zeta, now a strong post tropical cyclone will bring beneficial soaking rainfall but also strong to damaging winds in Southeast New England and a period of wet snow with light accumulations to the region..
..A Wind Advisory is in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands from 10 PM Thursday Evening through 2 PM Friday Afternoon for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH and isolated higher gusts possible. Elsewhere along the Southeast New England coast wind gusts to 40 MPH with isolated higher gusts are possible. These winds will cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..Snow accumulations of 1-3 inches with isolated higher amounts in the higher terrain are possible across Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. If snow accumulations get to 3″ or more. there would be increased risk for isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. This aspect will be monitored closely. At this time, most amounts are expected to be 3″ or under for most areas..
..Widespread rainfall of 1-2″ with isolated higher amounts will occur across Southern New England..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rainfall amounts, snowfall amounts and measured wind gust and wind damage reports meeting the reportable criteria..

1.) The changeover timing of rain to snow and how heavy that precipitation falls after changeover. This will determine snowfall amounts. If amounts of 3″ or higher than 3″ occurs, this will increase the risk for isolated pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages due to the wet heavy nature of the snow.
2.) Winds along the southeast coastal areas and if they are a bit stronger given Zeta’s initially higher intensity when it made landfall.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rainfall amounts, snowfall amounts and measured wind gust and wind damage reports meeting the reportable criteria. Another coordination message will be posted by 1030 PM Thursday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Snowfall and Rainfall Maps:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Boston/Norton Rainfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/crh/pqpf?sid=box

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Post Storm/Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Damaging Wind and Severe Weather Outbreak – Wednesday 10/7/20

October 11, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Powerful cold front and vigorous squall line of severe thunderstorms with damaging wind along and behind the severe thunderstorms causes widespread pockets of tree and power line damage as well as pockets of structural damage to structures from fallen trees and even isolated direct structural damage in some areas. Massachusetts Power Outages were as high as nearly 250,000 at the height of the storm with additional power outages reported in New York, Connecticut and Rhode Island..
..NWS Boston/Norton and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) are determining whether this event was a result of a strong Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) or a weak derecho, which is Spanish for “big wind” from a complex of severe thunderstorms..
..Pictures and reports of storm damage and hail from the Wednesday 10/7/20 event will be helpful to document this damaging wind and severe weather outbreak and made a determination of the strength of the convective complex on Wednesday more completely. They can be sent via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds, via the email address pics@nsradio.org or as a reply to this email. When a determination is made, a final post severe weather coordination message will be sent..
..Below is the latest NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report with updated info, WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log with updated info and WX1BOX Facebook Photo Album on this damaging wind event and severe weather outbreak from Wednesday 10/7/20..

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/lsr_10_9_20.pdf

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/reports_10_7_20_rev_2.pdf

WX1BOX Facebook Photo Album:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?vanity=wx1box&set=a.3781340935233230

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday 10/10/20 Strong Wind and Severe Thunderstorm Potential

October 10, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Strong winds causing isolated pockets of wind damage occurring in Southeast New England. Later this evening, there is a low risk for isolated to possibly scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over parts of Southern New England though the most significant severe thunderstorm threat is mostly north of the NWS Boston/Norton coverage area..
..A Wind Advisory is in effect through 7 PM EDT for Southeast Coastal Massachusetts including Eastern Plymouth County, the Greater Fall River and New Bedford area and Cape Cod and the Islands as well as Newport County RI for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH. This will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages.
..These winds will combine with the extended dry weather conditions to cause an elevated fire risk region wide and Central and Eastern Massachusetts and Northeast Rhode Island are under a Red Flag Warning for fire weather through 8 PM EDT Saturday Evening..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed parts northern Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather with portions of Northeast New York and Northern New England in a slight risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong wind, fire weather and severe weather potential for this Saturday Afternoon and Evening..

Another round of strong winds is occurring across Southeast New England today and with the drought conditions in the region, we need to monitor fire weather concerns for the region. There is also the risk for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms particularly in Northern Massachusetts. The timing of the cold front will be during the evening which lessens the severe weather potential in Southern New England but will still be monitored. Areas of Northeast New York and Northern New England have the greatest severe weather potential. That said if any strong to severe thunderstorms were able to form earlier during the heating of the day or if the strong forcing of the cold front and jet dynamics can compensate for a lack of instability, there would be some potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms especially over Northern Massachusetts and the potential will be monitored.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong wind, fire weather and severe weather potential for this Saturday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the only coordination message on this potential unless a significant change to the situation occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Wind Advisory Statement, Red Flag Warning, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Red Flag Warning Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Post Storm/Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Damaging Wind and Severe Weather Outbreak – Wednesday 10/7/20

October 8, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Powerful cold front and vigorous squall line of severe thunderstorms with damaging wind along and behind the severe thunderstorms causes widespread pockets of tree and power line damage as well as pockets of structural damage to structures from fallen trees and even isolated direct structural damage in some areas. Massachusetts Power Outages were as high as nearly 250,000 and now reduced to over 75,000 in Massachusetts as of 1202 PM. Additional power outages were reported in Connecticut and Rhode Island..
..Pictures and reports of storm damage and hail from the Wednesday 10/7/20 event will be helpful to document this damaging wind and severe weather outbreak. They can be sent via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds, via the email address pics@nsradio.org or as a reply to this email. A Facebook photo album will be posted later Thursday and this post storm/severe weather coordination message will be updated later Thursday Night or Friday Morning with additional information..
..Below is the latest NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report and WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log on his damaging wind and severe weather outbreak from Wednesday 10/7/20..

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/LSR_10_8_20.pdf

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/reports_10_7_20.pdf

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Storm Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday 10/7/20 Strong to Damaging Wind and Severe Weather Potential

October 7, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..A powerful cold front will bring strong to damaging winds and even the threat for Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms given an intensifying storm system, strong winds aloft and very cold temperatures aloft when compared to surface temperatures provided thunderstorms can form with limited moisture profiles. Strong to damaging winds, hail and lightning would be the primary threats with any strong to severe thunderstorms.
..The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has expanded the marginal risk for severe weather across much of Southern New England for this Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. The timeframe for any strong to severe thunderstorms would be from 2-8 PM this Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..
..A High Wind Warning remains in effect through 2 AM Thursday for Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH. A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 2 PM Wednesday Afternoon to 2 AM Wednesday Morning for Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Worcester, Essex, Middlesex, Suffolk and Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts of 60 MPH. A Wind Advisory is now in effect for Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts from 2 PM Wednesday Afternoon through 2 AM Thursday Morning for sustained winds of 10-20 MPH with gusts to 50-55 MPH. These winds will have the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong to severe thunderstorm and wind damage potential for Wednesday. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode..

A powerful cold front will bring strong to damaging winds and even the threat of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for much of Southern New England and the headlines depict the current thinking. At 1135 AM, Doppler Radar showed an area of rain and some embedded heavier rain associated with the cold front that will bring the strong to damaging winds and the threat for low topped convective showers and isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms which will have the ability to bring stronger winds down to the surface as well as the potential for hail even if any of the convection has little to no lightning. This will be monitored throughout the day.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong to severe thunderstorm and wind damage potential for Wednesday. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement and NWS Boston/Norton Facebook Infographics..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Facebook Infographics:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.3368498553244492/3368493173245030/

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Storm Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday 10/7/20 Strong to Damaging Wind and Severe Weather Potential

October 7, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..A powerful cold front will bring strong to damaging winds and even the threat for Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms given an intensifying storm system, strong winds aloft and very cold temperatures aloft when compared to surface temperatures provided thunderstorms can form with limited moisture profiles. Strong to damaging winds, hail and lightning would be the primary threats with any strong to severe thunderstorms.
..The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed portions of Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather for Wednesday..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from Noon Wednesday through 2 AM Thursday for Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH. A High Wind Watch is now in effect for Rhode Island and Massachusetts except for Berkshire County for sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts of 55-60 MPH. A Wind Advisory is now in effect for Northern Connecticut from 2 PM Wednesday Afternoon through 2 AM Thursday Morning for sustained winds of 10-20 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH.
..These winds will have the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong to severe thunderstorm and wind damage potential for Wednesday. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Wednesday Morning with additional details. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, High Wind Warning/Watch/Wind Advisory Statement and NWS Boston/Norton Facebook Infographics..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Watch/Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Facebook Infographics:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/a.178319238929122/3367252363369111/

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized