Storm Coordination Message #3 – Monday Afternoon 11/30/20-Early Tuesday Morning 12/1/20 – Strong to Damaging Winds and Heavy Rainfall Potential
Hello to all…
..Powerful storm system will bring heavy rainfall, strong to damaging winds, the possibility for Isolated Strong to Severe Thunderstorms and possibly some minor coastal splashover to minor coastal flooding to Southeast New England Monday Afternoon through early Tuesday Morning..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 3 PM Monday to 1 AM Tuesday for Eastern Essex, Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth Counties, Cape Cod and the Islands and all of Rhode Island except for Northwest Providence County Rhode Island for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts up to 60 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts possible. These winds will cause scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered power outages..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 3 PM Monday to 1 AM Tuesday for Northern Connecticut, Hampden, Worcester, Middlesex, Western Essex, Western Norfolk, Suffolk, Counties of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County of Rhode Island for sustained winds of 15-30 MPH with gusts up to 50 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts possible. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has expanded the marginal risk for severe weather for Monday into almost all of Massachusetts as well as Rhode Island and Connecticut with damaging winds brought to the surface in any thunderstorms as the main threat..
..Rainfall of 1-3″ with isolated higher amounts could cause urban and poor drainage flooding. Strong winds may cause minor splashover to minor coastal flooding in Southeast New England..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm for rainfall reports, rainfall and coastal related flooding and measured wind gust and wind damage reports..
A powerful storm system will track west of Southern New England putting the region in the strong to damaging wind, heavy rain side of the storm with even the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms in Southeast New England. The headlines depict the latest thinking. Key factors include:
1.) The strength of the low level winds and the ability of the strong winds to reach the surface in either heavy rainfall or thunderstorms to cause higher wind gusts. The timeframe from 3 PM Monday-1 AM Tuesday is where the highest winds are expected with strong to damaging winds possibly lasting beyond 1 AM Tuesday over Cape Cod and the Islands.
2.) Depending on instability levels and wind fields, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out in the marginal severe weather risk area and it is noted that the marginal risk for severe weather has been expanded to all of Massachusetts except for the Northwest part of the state.
3.) Heaviest and higher end rainfall amounts and how widespread they are based on thunderstorm development or how widespread the heavy rain swath is.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm for rainfall reports, rainfall and coastal related flooding and measured wind gust and wind damage reports. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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