Hello to all…

..Coastal Storm on track to affect much of Southern New England Sunday Morning through Sunday Evening with a plowable to heavy snowfall. Track of system is a bit lower confidence than normal at this time range thought model ensembles are better a handle on this coastal storm system. Some changes to Winter Storm headlines have been made based on the latest guidance..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 7 AM Sunday to 1 PM Monday for Tolland and Windham Counties of Connecticut, Worcester, Middlesex, Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts and all of Rhode Island except for Block Island RI for 5-9″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and wind gusts inland of up to 35 MPH with wind gusts in Southeast New England particularly along the coast of 40-50 MPH. The Outer Cape could see lesser amounts of 2-5″. The snow is likely to be heavy and wet particularly in coastal areas and Southeast New England and the wet snow and wind gusts may result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 7 AM Sunday to 1 PM Monday for Block Island RI and Marthas Vineyard for 2-6″ of snow and wind gusts to 40-50 MPH. If snow totals of 3″ or more occur given the snow being heavy and wet, the potential would exist for isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 7 AM Sunday to 1 PM Monday for Nantucket Island for 1″ of snow with higher amounts if less mixing than currently forecast occurs and wind gusts to 50 MPH.. The wind gusts may cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 7 AM Sunday to 1 PM Monday for Franklin, Hampshire, and Hampden Counties of Massachusetts and Hartford County CT for 4-6″ of snow..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely across much of Southern New England for this storm event Sunday Morning to Sunday Night..

A coastal storm is taking aim on Southern New England for Sunday Morning through late Sunday Night. Model guidance is coming into gradual agreement on the track, speed and intensity of the storm but uncertainty is higher than normal for a storm system that will start impacting the area in less than 24 hours. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) There remains some spread in the guidance a bit larger than normal regarding the northwest cutoff in precipitation over the region. At this time, a plowable snowfall is expected across much of Southern New England with the heaviest snow east of I-84 in Connecticut and from Worcester County east in Massachusetts where a Winter Storm Warning is now posted for 5-9″ of snow with isolated higher amounts. West of this area 4-6″ of snow is expected.
2.) The intensity of the storm will dictate any wind issues in addition to heavy snowfall across eastern and southeastern New England. Also, temperatures will be near freezing in Southeastern and East Coastal New England which could result in a heavier wetter snow which coupled with wind gusts of 40-50 MPH could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages.
3.) Some models bring some mixing to some coastal areas particularly the Outer Cape and the islands so Block Island Rhode Island and Marthas Vineyard were downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory in this update with a Winter Weather Advisory posted for Nantucket. This is another tough part of the forecast as just a slight shift in track or precipitation falling heavy enough to remain accumulating snow may allow for higher amounts over these areas.
4.) The storm will be fast moving starting early to mid morning Sunday and finishing by mid-evening Sunday.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely across much of Southern New England for this storm event Sunday Morning to Sunday Night. If time allows and there is a significant change in the forecast, another coordination message will be posted by 1100 AM Sunday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Snowfall Maps:

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Snowfall Map:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Coastal Storm will take aim at portions of Southern New England Sunday Morning through Sunday Evening. Track and intensity of the system is a bit lower confidence than normal at this time range and model trends over the next 12 hours should allow us to get a better handle on this coastal storm system..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 7 AM Sunday to 1 AM Monday for Bristol, Plymouth, Barnstable and Dukes Counties of Massachusetts and all of Rhode Island except for Northwest Rhode Island for 5-9″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and wind gusts of around 40 MPH inland to 45-50 MPH at the coast. The snow could be heavy and wet and could lead to isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Sunday Morning through late Sunday Night for Nantucket for 4-7″ of snow and wind gusts to 50 MPH. In this area, uncertainty exists on snowfall amounts due to potential mixed precipitation. If snow amounts of 4″ or more occurs, the snowfall along with strong winds will have the potential to bring isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for Sunday Morning through late Sunday Night for Northern Connecticut, Northwest Providence County Rhode Island, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester, Middlesex, Essex, Suffolk, and Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts..
..Franklin County Massachusetts will see a light snowfall or possibly a snowfall up to Winter Weather Advisory levels..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely across much of Southern New England for this storm event Sunday Morning to Sunday Night..

A coastal storm is taking aim on Southern New England for Sunday Morning through late Sunday Night. Model guidance is coming into gradual agreement on the track, speed and intensity of the storm but uncertainty is higher than normal for a storm system that will start impacting the area in about 24 hours. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) There has been some back and forth in the models regarding how far northwest the accumulating snowfall gets as well as amounts in these areas. Less snowfall would occur if a trend to the south and southeast occurs while a track closer or inside the 40 North/70 West benchmark as some of the models predict would bring heavier snowfall in these areas. There could also be a sharp cutoff between the accumulating to heavy snows and a much lighter snowfall. Southeast New England is where the highest confidence of heavy snowfall is and that’s why the Winter Storm Warnings have been posted in this area with Winter Storm Watches expanded northwest as confidence is growing on plowable snowfall meeting Winter Storm criteria but there remains uncertainty.
2.) The intensity of the storm will dictate any wind issues in addition to heavy snowfall across eastern and southeastern New England. Also, temperatures will be near freezing in Southeast New England which could result in a heavier wetter snow which coupled with wind gusts of 40-50 MPH could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages.
3.) Some models bring some mixing to some coastal area particularly the islands and this will bear watching if a closer storm approach occurs and this is why a Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Nantucket.
4.) The storm will be fast moving starting early to mid morning Sunday and finishing by mid-evening Sunday.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely across much of Southern New England for this storm event Sunday Morning to Sunday Night. Another coordination message will be posted by 1100 PM Saturday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch/Warning Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Snowfall Maps:

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Snowfall Map:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Coastal Storm will take aim at portions of Southern New England Sunday Morning through Sunday Evening. Track and intensity of the system is a bit lower confidence than normal at this time range and model trends over the next 12-18 hours should allow us to get a better handle on this coastal storm system..
..A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Sunday Morning through late Sunday Night for all of Southeast Massachusetts including Bristol and Plymouth Counties, Cape Cod and the Islands and all of Rhode Island except Northwest Rhode Island for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and wind gusts of 40 MPH with isolated higher wind gusts at the coast. If model trends continue, there is potential for a widespread 8″ or more of snowfall in portions or possibly all of the Winter Storm Watch area and this will be closely monitored..
..Areas north and west of the Winter Storm Watch area should monitor future forecasts carefully as depending model trends, Winter Storm Watches could be expanded to other parts of Southern New England..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely in the Winter Storm Watch area and possibly other parts of the coverage area depending on the track of this winter storm..

A coastal storm is taking aim on Southern New England for Sunday Morning through late Sunday Night. This storm system was modeled to be well out to sea on Wednesday but since Thursday Morning, model trends with only a couple exceptions have trended stronger and closer to the coast with each model run. Some models are more focused on Southeast New England while other models still target Southeast New England for the heaviest snowfall but gives accumulating snow to much of Southern New England. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) If the model trends continue north than much of Southern New England will see an accumulating and potentially heavy snowfall with the highest snowfall in Southeast New England. Less snowfall would occur if a trend to the south and southeast occurs but outside of one or two model runs within the last 36 hours, the general trend has been north and northwest closer to Southern New England to an area near or just south of the benchmark. There could also be a sharp cutoff between the accumulating to heavy snows and a much lighter snowfall.
2.) The intensity of the storm will dictate any wind issues in addition to heavy snowfall across eastern and southeastern New England.
3.) The storm will be fast moving starting early to mid morning Sunday and finishing by mid-evening Sunday.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely in the Winter Storm Watch area and possibly other parts of the coverage area depending on the track of this winter storm. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Saturday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Snowfall Maps:

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Snowfall Map:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Coastal Storm on track to bring significant snow to much of Southern New England with a snow/sleet/freezing rain and rain mixture across Southeast New England, strong to damaging winds in coastal areas and the potential for widespread minor with areas of moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide across East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for Northern Connecticut, Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester, Middlesex, Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County Rhode Island through 5 AM Tuesday Morning for 7-15″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and wind gusts of 45 MPH with isolated higher gusts closest to the coast. The snow will have the potential to be heavy and wet with isolated to scattered pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages possible..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and all of Rhode Island except for Block Island through 1 AM Tuesday Morning for 6-12″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and wind gusts to 50 MPH. The snow will have the potential to be heavy and wet and that along with the strong winds could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Cape Cod, Marthas Vineyard in Massachusetts and Block Island RI through 7 PM Monday for 2-6″ of snow with the highest amounts away from the immediate coast and in the lower to mid Cape Cod area. The snow will be heavy and wet and that along with wind gusts to 60 MPH can cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands from 12 PM Monday Afternoon through 2 AM Tuesday for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH. These winds combined with wet snow will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect for Nantucket and Marthas Vineyard for 1 PM Monday Afternoon through 5 AM Tuesday Morning. A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod from 11 PM Monday Evening through 4 PM Tuesday Afternoon. Widespread minor with areas of moderate coastal flooding are likely during the time of high tide Monday Night on Nantucket and Marthas Vineyard and the late Monday Night and Tuesday Afternoon high tide cycles in East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod. Flooding of shore roads is potentially likely along with beach erosion and perhaps minor structural coastal flood damage..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets likely Monday into Tuesday for multiple weather hazards including snowfall totals, precipitation changeover, wet snow/wind damage reports and coastal flood road closures and damage reports. Pictures of storm snowfall, storm damage and coastal flooding and coastal flood damage can be posted as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org..

A coastal storm will impact Southern New England with a myriad of weather hazards across Southern New England late Monday Morning through Tuesday Morning with significant snowfall, strong to damaging winds along and near the coast and the potential for widespread minor with areas of moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide across East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands. The headlines depict the current thinking with few changes since last night. The main change is the conversion of the Coastal Flood Watch to a Coastal Flood Advisory. Key factors remain:

1.) The rain/snow line and coastal front setup. This will depict which areas see the heaviest snow as areas along and north and west of that coastal front will receive the heaviest snow while areas south and east of that line will see a snow to wintry mix to rain changing back to snow before ending. Some models bring this line up to the I-95 corridor while other models keep this further south particularly when the heaviest precipitation occurs leading to higher snowfall amounts. At this time, a further south rain-snow line is being favored but this will bear watching.
2.) Models indicate areas of Southern New England particularly nearest to that coastal front that sets up could see a heavy, wet snow that combined with any winds could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages.
3.) Strong to damaging winds at the coast and the strength of those winds. That will determine the extent of any wind damage and have some impact on the coastal flood potential. A High Wind Warning continues for Cape Cod and the Islands and this may indicate the late Monday Night high tide is the bigger potential threat versus Tuesday Afternoon but it will bear watching.
4.) Some models cutoff the precipitation early on Tuesday while other high resolution models keep it snowing steadily into Tuesday Afternoon resulting in additional accumulations particularly in interior Southern New England. More models are now showing the dry slotting earlier on Tuesday hence the expiration times of the Winter Storm Warnings between 1-5 AM but this will bear watching and will ultimately depend on the placement and direction of the coastal storm and how close it is to Southern New England. This aspect will have to be monitored as it would result in higher snowfall amounts over an extended period if steadier/heavier snow continued later into Tuesday.
5.) Coastal Flood Advisories are now posted for East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands. At this time, the Monday Night high tide appears to be a greater threat but the tide cycle on Tuesday Afternoon could also be impacted. This will bear close watching based on storm track, speed and intensity.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets likely Monday into Tuesday for multiple weather hazards including snowfall totals, precipitation changeover, wet snow/wind damage reports and coastal flood road closures and damage reports. Pictures of storm snowfall, storm damage and coastal flooding and coastal flood damage can be posted as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org. This is the last coordination message for this storm system. If time allows, a message regarding Amateur Radio net call-ups on various frequencies will be posted but if not, Amateur Operators are encouraged to guard their SKYWARN repeater by checking the frequency listing on the wx1box.org web site. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and Snowfall Map:

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Snowfall Map:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box