Tropical Storm Elsa Coordination Message #3 – Thursday Evening 7/8/21-Friday 7/9/21 Elsa Impacts
Hello to all…
..Active Weather Pattern through Friday as current light to moderate rainfall ahead of Elsa is occurring in portions of Western New England with heavier rainfall from Elsa and increasing wind speeds in Southeast New England to start arriving between 2-4 AM Friday across Southern New England. The Thursday severe weather potential wasn’t realized due to cloud cover and warm frontal positioning keeping the severe weather activity southwest of our coverage area today..
..A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Merrimack River Massachusetts through New Haven Connecticut. In this area, tropical storm conditions are likely with sustained winds anywhere from 25-40 MPH and wind gusts of 45-55 MPH with isolated higher wind gusts to 60 MPH with the strongest wind gusts in South Coastal Rhode Island, South Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. With recent wet conditions and these winds, scattered pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages are possible in this area..
..The Storm Prediction Center has placed Central and Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather for Friday in association with Tropical Storm Elsa for strong to damaging winds and even the potential for an isolated tornado or two in this area. There could also be another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of a front after Elsa moves out of the area for later Friday Afternoon and Evening..
..A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for all of the NWS Boston/Norton Coverage Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands from late Thursday Night to Friday Afternoon for 2-4″ of rain with isolated higher amounts up to 6″. With recent wet conditions, this additional rainfall could lead to widespread pockets of urban and poor drainage flooding and some flooding of rivers and streams in the watch area. This is likely the biggest impact of Tropical Storm Elsa on the region..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will be active covering the impacts of Tropical Storm Elsa and any severe weather after Elsa’s departure late Thursday Night into Friday..
..Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, and flooding from the last 2 days of severe weather as well as Elsa’s impacts on Friday can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to our email address pics@nsradio.org..
Yesterday featured another fairly widespread severe weather event with pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages across Southern New England. In addition, a nocturnal line of strong thunderstorms briefly reached severe limits in Southeast Worcester and Western Norfolk Counties around 345-400 AM this morning,. The latest Local Storm Reports giving the latest reports from this event can be seen here:
NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Thursday Morning 7/8/21 Severe Weather Event:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2107081030.nwus51.html
NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Wednesday 7/7/21 Severe Weather event:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2107080226.nwus51.html
NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Tuesday 7/6/21 Severe Weather event:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2107070013.nwus51.html
Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, and flooding can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to our email address pics@nsradio.org both for these past severe weather events as well as upcoming severe weather for Thursday and Elsa’s impacts for Thursday Night into Friday.
The Thursday severe weather potential wasn’t realized due to cloud cover and warm frontal positioning keeping the severe weather activity southwest of our coverage area today. Across Western New England, light to moderate rainfall is occurring as of this Thursday Evening and will continue to increase overnight with Tropical Storm Elsa approaching the region between 2-4 AM Friday which will bring an 8-hour window of heavy rainfall across areas of Southern New England north and west of I-95 and increasing strong to damaging winds across Southeast New England and East Coastal Massachusetts. The headlines depict the current thinking with Tropical Storm Warnings and Flash Flood Watches posted as listed. Key factors include:
1.) Elsa has the potential to bring heavy rainfall along and northwest of the track with 2-4″ of rain with isolated amounts up to 6″. With recent heavy rainfall from the past week, numerous pockets of urban and poor drainage flooding are likely along with the potential for some river and stream flooding.
2.) Strong to damaging winds and the potential for severe weather exists along and southeast of the track. The current Elsa track has Elsa slicing through Southern New England meaning portions of Southeast Massachusetts, Rhode Island East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands could get into the stronger wind and severe weather part of the tropical system but with less rainfall in this area particularly over Cape Cod and the Islands. A track difference as little as 50 miles will affect outcomes in this area. If the storm center tracks 50 miles further east, heavier rain and less wind and severe weather potential exists in these areas while a track as forecasted or further west would allow for the strong to damaging wind and severe weather potential in this area.
In addition, after Elsa moves out of the region by mid-afternoon Friday, models indicate the potential for another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms later Friday Afternoon and evening with a cold front. This will bear monitoring depending on Elsa’s movement out of the area to allow for heating and destabilization ahead of the cold front.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will be active covering the impacts of Tropical Storm Elsa and any severe weather after Elsa’s departure late Thursday Night into Friday. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode for Tropical Storm Elsa. Below are the NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Local Statement, Flash Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Elsa information:
NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Local Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210708_1730.html
National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:
Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt35.KNHC.html
Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt45.KNHC.html
Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast/Advisory:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt25.KNHC.html
Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font15.KNHC.html
Tropical Storm Elsa Key Messages:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/150124.shtml?key_messages#contents
Tropical Storm Elsa Storm Graphics:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/092753.shtml?cone#contents
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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