Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Friday Afternoon and Evening 7/16/21 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all…
..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible to likely across much of Southern New England where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has now placed all of Southern New England except for the islands in a marginal risk for severe weather. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Timeframe for the severe weather potential is 1-9 PM EDT Friday..
..Intense heat and humidity has prompted NWS Boston/Norton to issue a Heat Advisory from 2-7 PM EDT Friday for Essex, Central and Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk, Norfolk, North-Central Bristol and North-Central Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for heat indices up to 100 expected. People in the heat advisory area and across Southern New England should be careful not to overexert themselves if working outdoors, drink plenty of liquids and seek air conditioned comfort wherever possible today..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Friday Afternoon and Evening..
Intense heat and humidity will affect the region Friday Afternoon and Evening with an impulse in the atmosphere near the time of peak heating to allow for the formation of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across the region. The headlines depict the current thinking which is little changed except for an expansion of the marginal risk of severe weather across much of Southern New England except for the islands and the issues of a Heat advisory for portions of Eastern Massachusetts. Key factors on severe weather potential remain as follows:
1.) Dry air in the upper levels of the atmosphere and what role it plays in convection. It could enhance damaging wind potential if storms can develop but too much dry air could cap the development of strong to severe thunderstorms in the region.
2.) The ability of intense heat and humidity to offset dry air in the upper levels of the atmosphere along with the impulse atmosphere to be a sufficient trigger for strong to severe thunderstorm development.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Friday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message on Friday’s severe weather potential. Below are the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Heat Advisory Statement, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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