Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England anytime after 4 AM Friday through 12 PM in Western New England with this potential moving eastward into Eastern New England after 12 PM..
..Strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning, heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..A Flash Flood Watch is in effect Midnight tonight through Friday Morning for Franklin, Hampshire and Hampden Counties of Massachusetts and Hartford County of Connecticut for 1-3 inches of rainfall with isolated higher amounts causing flooding of urban and poor drainage areas and possibly some small rivers and streams..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flash flood potential overnight into early Friday Evening..

A slow moving cold front will push its way through Southern New England overnight through Friday Evening. Warm and humid conditions are out ahead of this cold front. This will set the stage possible localized flash flooding and severe weather potential. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Ability of forcing along the cold front and sufficient wind shear values to compensate for limited instability to allow for heavy rainfall and isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development.
2.) If more instability is generated than expected, that would potentially increase the severe weather potential in the region.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flash flood potential overnight into early Friday Evening. This is likely to be the only coordination message on this severe weather potential as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210923_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..A Strong cold front will move through Southern New England Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday Morning bringing the potential for severe weather Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..
..Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely Wednesday Afternoon and Evening anytime after 3 PM through midnight particularly over Western and Northern Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut though areas as far east as the I-95 corridor of Southern New England should monitor. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued Western and Northern Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut with a slight expansion into Hartford CT to Worcester Mass. in a slight risk for severe weather and the rest of Southern New England from the I-95 corridor north and west in a marginal risk for severe weather for Wednesday and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed much of Southern New England along, north and west of the I-95 corridor in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any activity overnight Tuesday Night and particularly the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..

Another round of potential severe weather is expected for Southern New England this Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) Timing of the cold front and strong dynamics into the region. This looks most favorable for the locations in a slight risk area for severe weather and particularly western and northern Massachusetts.
2.) How far south and east the severe weather potential extends pending on the timing of the cold front, forcing along the front as it moves southeast and the location of the strongest wind shear levels.
3.) The overall intensity of the strong to severe thunderstorms as if conditions line up and overlap favorably, this could be a fairly widespread severe weather event with fairly numerous pockets of wind damage in particular over the slight risk area of Western and Northern Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut. There is also a chance the most significant severe weather could stay further north into Northern New England with more isolated severe thunderstorms in Western and Northern Massachusetts and this will be watched through the day though current trends are shifting the potential slightly further south and east hence the expansion of the slight risk for severe weather.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..A Strong cold front will move through Southern New England Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday Morning bringing the potential for severe weather conditionally Tuesday Night with the focus and more potent severe weather potential Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..
..Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely Wednesday Afternoon and Evening anytime after 3 PM through midnight particularly over Western and Northern Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut though areas as far east as the I-95 corridor of Southern New England should monitor. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat..
..A conditional threat for Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms is possible overnight Tuesday after midnight through 6 AM across Western and Northern Massachusetts..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and Northern Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut in a slight risk for severe weather and the rest of Southern New England from the I-95 corridor north and west in a marginal risk for severe weather for Wednesday and the Weather Prediction Center has placed much of Southern New England along, north and west of the I-95 corridor in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any activity overnight Tuesday Night and particularly the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..

Another round of potential severe weather is expected for Southern New England. The severe weather potential overnight Tuesday Evening is very conditional and low risk but will need monitoring and will hinge on favorable instability and wind shear parameters and whether there is enough moisture or a trigger for any strong to severe thunderstorms to develop.

A more significant and potent severe weather event is likely for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening and the headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) Timing of the cold front and strong dynamics into the region. This looks most favorable for the locations in a slight risk area for severe weather and particularly western and northern Massachusetts.
2.) How far south and east the severe weather potential extends pending on the timing of the cold front and the location of the strongest wind shear levels.
3.) The overall intensity of the strong to severe thunderstorms as if conditions line up and overlap favorably, this could be a fairly widespread severe weather event with fairly numerous pockets of wind damage in particular over the slight risk area of Western and Northern Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any activity overnight Tuesday Night and particularly the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210914_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut Sunday Evening into early Monday Morning. There could be two rounds one during roughly between 4-8 PM Sunday Evening though this is more conditional and less likely than a second potentially more potent round between 10 PM Sunday Evening-6 AM EDT Monday Morning. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather Sunday Night into Monday Morning and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed the same area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall in the same areas..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential potential for Sunday Night into Monday Morning..

A front will move across Southern New England Sunday Night into Monday Morning. Typically, this unfavorable timing would not support severe thunderstorm development but due to strong shear, dynamics and lift from the front, there is the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The instability levels and whether those levels are sufficient combined with strong wind shear and jet dynamics for severe weather potential.
2.) Whether severe thunderstorms in Central and Eastern New York presuming they develop as expected starting out in Michigan and Western New York will maintain their intensity as they move into Southern New England.
3.) The earlier Sunday Evening threat is more conditional as there would be sufficient shear and instability but a lack of strong trigger in the atmosphere means that no thunderstorms form during the first half of Sunday Evening but if something were to form, it could go severe rapidly. Models differ on whether a few rapidly developing strong to severe thunderstorms occur or if there is no activity. Later at night, there will be the trigger and wind shear but instability will be in question with a lack of heating but an “elevated mixed layer” may allow for better instability offsetting lack of heating creating better severe weather potential overnight than normal for the region.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential potential for Sunday Night into Monday Morning. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut Sunday Evening into early Monday Morning. There could be two rounds one during roughly 6-10 PM Sunday Evening timeframe and a second potentially more potent round between 12 AM-6 AM EDT Monday Morning. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather Sunday Night into Monday Morning and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed the same area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential potential for Sunday Night into Monday Morning..

A front will move across Southern New England Sunday Night into Monday Morning. Typically, this unfavorable timing would not support severe thunderstorm development but due to strong shear, dynamics and lift from the front, there is the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The instability levels and whether those levels are sufficient combined with strong wind shear and jet dynamics for severe weather potential.
2.) Whether severe thunderstorms in Central and Eastern New York presuming they develop as expected will maintain their intensity as they move into Southern New England.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential potential for Sunday Night into Monday Morning. Another coordination message will be posted by 1030 AM Sunday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210911_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible in three rounds across Southern New England, one during the Wednesday Evening timeframe, another round possible Thursday Morning and a final round Thursday Afternoon and early evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly small river and steam flooding are the primary threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has expanded the Marginal Risk for severe weather to include Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts, Connecticut, and much of interior Rhode Island for tonight into Thursday Morning with a slight risk for severe weather further west into Eastern New York..
..The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed portions of Western New England in a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening and Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Thursday..
..Hurricane Larry will track well east of New England but could bring the risk for swells, rip currents and dangerous surf conditions along coastal beach areas of Southern New England later this week and this weekend and anyone going to coastal areas should avoid the rocks etc and be careful swimming in any coastal area beaches..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential for Wednesday Evening through Thursday Evening..

A strong cold front will slowly work its way through Southern New England late Wednesday Night through Thursday Evening. This cold front will bring with it the potential for some severe weather and flooding issues to portions of Southern New England. This cold front is what will keep Hurricane Larry well offshore of Southern New England but swells, rip currents and waves from Larry will affect coastal areas of Southern New England late this week and this weekend so any beachgoers going to area beaches should use caution going into the ocean waters. The headlines reflect the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The timing of the cold front through Southern New England and whether there is sufficient instability or sufficient jet dynamics to overcome marginal instability to allow for any strong to severe thunderstorms to develop.
2.) The potential for any training of thunderstorms to allow for potential flooding issues in parts of Southern New England. While the rainfall will be nowhere near the magnitude of the remnants of Ida, the recent rainfall and the potential for 1-2″ of rain with isolated higher amounts may cause renewed flood potential over portions of the area.
3.) It remains unclear particularly for Eastern New England whether the greatest potential for severe weather will occur Thursday Morning or more towards afternoon and evening. This will depend on how any shower and thunderstorm activity forms, what areas it affects and as we get into Thursday any sunshine that may allow for higher levels of instability. These aspects will be monitored closely.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential for Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday Evening. Where the severe weather and flood potential could occur anytime in the Wednesday Evening to Thursday Evening timeframe, this will likely be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode unless a significant change to the situation occurs and time allows for an update, Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks and WPC Day-1/Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlooks..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210908_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible in three rounds across Southern New England, one during the late Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Evening timeframe, another round possible Thursday Morning and a final round Thursday Afternoon and early evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly small river and steam flooding..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western New England in a marginal risk for severe weather with a slight risk of severe weather in portions of Eastern New York. Eastern New England areas should monitor particularly for the severe weather potential for Thursday..
..The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed portions of Western New England in a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential for Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday Evening. Another coordination message will be posted at 10 AM Wednesday with greater details on the severe weather and excessive rainfall potential. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210907_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..The active summer and rapid fire succession of multiple systems across the region have resulted in less time to do post storm reports after some of the more significant and tropical systems that have affected the region. Over the course of 9/5/21-9/12/21, we will be posting a serious of post storm damage reports to our email list, web site and social media as well as post photo albums of some of the significant weather events affecting our region..
..Pictures, videos and post storm damage reports from some of the significant severe weather events as well as tropical systems and their remnants such as Tropical Storm Elsa, Tropical Storm Henri and his remnants, and the remnants of Fred and Ida can be posted as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds as well as the email address pics@nsradio.org. We appreciate the tremendous efforts of SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators during this extremely active summer weather season..

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..The remnants of Ida will bring the potential threat of widespread heavy rainfall and flash flooding as the primary concern but also the secondary concern of strong to damaging winds across the region with the threat for an isolated weak tornado or isolated pockets of enhanced wind damage in severe thunderstorms in Southeast Coastal New England..
..A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire NWS Boston/Norton coverage area for widespread rainfall of 2-6″ with isolated amounts higher amounts in parts of the flash flood watch area. This rainfall forecasted if it occurs in a short period of time will result in widespread pockets of urban and poor drainage flooding with small river and stream flooding likely. It is noted that the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a moderate to high risk of excessive rainfall..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Southeast Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island in a marginal risk for severe weather with strong to damaging winds and an isolated weak tornado as the main threats..
..Strong general wind gusts of 30-40 MPH inland, and 35-45 MPH with isolated higher gusts at the coast are possible depending on the ability of those winds to reach the surface as well as the track and intensity of the remnants of Ida as it taps into non-tropical energy as it moves through the region. These wind gusts coupled with saturated ground and additional rainfall may cause somewhat higher wind damage potential than normal due to the wet conditions though this remains a secondary concern compared to the rainfall and flood threat..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets Likely overnight Wednesday Night into Thursday Afternoon for the main threats of flash flooding and measured rainfall reports but the secondary threat of strong to damaging winds and isolated severe thunderstorms with an isolated weak tornado..

The remnants of Ida will impact the weather across Southern New England significantly late Wednesday Night through Thursday Afternoon. The headlines depict the current thinking and potential. Key factors include:

1.) The axis of heaviest rain could shift further north and west or shift a little south and east in future updates but a widespread heavy rainfall is expected regionwide. Flash Flooding is the primary concern from this storm event. Where an enhanced area of rainfall of between 4-7″ sets up could be around the Mass Pike area, areas just north of there or areas south of there across Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts and small track changes in the remnants will determine where this sets up.
2.) Some weather models are depicting strong to damaging wind gusts with the remnants Ida as it taps into non-tropical energy. The key will be weather these strong winds materialize and whether they can reach the surface. This will bear monitoring as a secondary concern as the wet ground, additional rainfall coupled with strong wind gusts could lead to higher impacts in terms of wind damage if those wind gusts were to materialize. Currently wind gusts of 30-40 MPH inland and 35-45 MPH with isolated higher gusts at the coast seem like the most probable scenario.
3.) There is the potential for thunderstorms to enhance the wind gusts in Southeast coastal New England along with the potential for isolated weak tornadoes. This is also a secondary concern that bears watching and will depend on the track of the remnants of Ida and if they track near or over Southern New England allowing Southeast Coastal New England to get into more of the warm sector.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets Likely overnight Wednesday Night into Thursday Afternoon for the main threats of flash flooding and measured rainfall reports but the secondary threat of strong to damaging winds and isolated severe thunderstorms with an isolated weak tornado. This will be the last coordination message as we move into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Rainfall Forecast Map, WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Rainfall Map:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/StormTotalQPF_SFC4.png

WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box