Severe Weather & Flood Coordination Message #1 – Thursday Afternoon & Evening 7/13/23 Through Friday Evening 7/14/23 Flood & Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all…
..Overnight thunderstorms with frequent lighting and heavy downpours threaten to renew urban, poor drainage, river and stream flooding in portions of Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island and into parts of Southeast Massachusetts bordering Rhode Island. A secondary threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, and hail also exists from early evening through late tonight. Additional chances for thunderstorms with heavy downpours and isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through the weekend into early next week..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect from 5 PM Thursday Evening through late tonight for Hartford, Tolland Counties Connecticut, Franklin, Hampden and Hampshire Counties of Massachusetts and from 11 PM Thursday Evening through late tonight for Rhode Island, Worcester, Western Norfolk, and Bristol Counties of Massachusetts for localized heavy rainfall exacerbated by recent wet conditions causing renewed flash flooding of urban, poor drainage areas, rivers and streams..
..The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has much of Southern New England in a marginal to slight risk for excessive rainfall for Thursday through Sunday with the category varying between marginal and slight depending on which day during this period..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a marginal risk for severe weather through early Friday Morning for Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut and a marginal risk for severe weather for Western and Central Massachusetts through Connecticut and Rhode Island for the remainder of Friday through Friday Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential Thursday evening through Sunday Evening..
A relentless pattern of thunderstorms, heavy downpours and isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will resume later Thursday through Sunday Evening around the region. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) Thunderstorm intensity later this evening and overnight will hinge on remaining instability past peak heating and the wind shear profiles as the thunderstorms move in the region.
2.) The initial thunderstorms may be progressive overnight but additional thunderstorm activity will continue on Friday. These thunderstorms if they train over an area hard hit from the last few weeks will renew flooding fairly rapidly in a given area and this will be monitored.
3.) Additional thunderstorm and excessive rainfall potential will continue through at least Sunday Evening. Previous day’s thunderstorms and convection will determine how the next day’s thunderstorm and convection potential unfolds.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential Thursday evening through Sunday Evening. The next coordination message will likely be some time between 8 AM and 1 PM Friday. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, WPC Day-1 and Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook and SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=FFA&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box
WPC Day-1 and Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlooks:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php
SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2023/day2otlk_20230713_1730.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
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