Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday 7/27/23 Severe Weather & Flash Flood Potential
Hello to all…
..After a one day reprieve, a renewed threat for severe weather across all of Southern New England with flash flooding potential in interior parts of Massachusetts hard hit by recent severe weather and flash flood events for Thursday Afternoon and Evening. This event will bear close monitoring as this could be a significant severe weather event if certain mesoscale features line up accordingly. Oppressive Heat and Humidity is also expected in the Thursday through Saturday timeframe..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather for Thursday Afternoon and Evening for scattered to possibly numerous strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding of urban/poor drainage areas, rivers and streams as the main threat with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat.
..The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed interior Southern New England from a Boston to Providence line west and north into a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall for Thursday Afternoon and Evening..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect from Thursday Morning through Thursday Evening for Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Worcester, Middlesex, Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts for excessive rainfall leading to flooding of urban and poor drainage areas, small rivers and streams..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 AM Thursday Morning to 8 PM Friday Evening for North-Central Rhode Island, Northern Connecticut, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Hampshire, Eastern Hampden, Worcester, Central and Southeast Middlesex, Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, North-Central Bristol and North-Central Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for heat indices up to 100 degrees..
..Due to the potential for severe weather Thursday and severe weather potential for Friday and Saturday, Post messages on the prior flood and severe weather events will be posted by Sunday 7/30/23 or Monday 7/31/23..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Thursday Afternoon and Evening with additional operational measures being considered depending on the evolving severe weather potential. Pictures, videos and reports on severe weather/flooding from Tuesday 7/25/23, prior events or the upcoming 7/27/23 severe weather/flood event can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the picture/video unless otherwise indicated..
Another severe weather and flood event affected the region Tuesday Afternoon and Evening 7/25/23. Below are the summary reports on the events Tuesday:
WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log of Amateur Radio and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotter Reports – Tuesday 7/25/23 Severe Weather Event:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/reports_7_25_23.pdf
NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Tuesday 7/25/23 Severe Weather Event:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/LSR-from-KBOX-7_25_23.pdf
NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement – Tuesday 7/25/23 Severe Weather Event:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/PNS-from-KBOX-7_25_23.pdf
Any pictures, videos and reports on severe weather/flooding from Tuesday 7/25/23, can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the picture/video unless otherwise indicated.
Yet another in a series of severe weather and flash flood events could potentially occur during Thursday Afternoon and Evening. The exact timing is a bit uncertain. This has the potential to be a particularly robust severe weather event if certain mesoscale parameters line up. Those key factors include:
1.) What amount of cloud cover debris occurs from ongoing convection west of New England overnight into Thursday Morning. If more heating can occur than currently expected, it would raise the potential for potent and numerous severe thunderstorms in the coverage area.
2.) Timing of any thunderstorm development near or shortly after the time of peak heating
SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Thursday Afternoon and Evening with additional operational measures being considered depending on the evolving severe weather potential. Pictures, videos and reports on severe weather/flooding from Tuesday 7/25/23, prior events or the upcoming 7/27/23 severe weather/flood event can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the picture/video unless otherwise indicated. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook, and WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook and Discussion:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2023/day2otlk_20230726_1730.html
WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook & Discussion:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpferd
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
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