Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday Morning 8/15/23 – Severe Weather & Flood Potential
Hello to all…
..Another potential day of severe weather and flooding this time centered in Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts..
..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts with strong to damaging winds and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats with the secondary threat of an isolated tornado. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this region in a marginal risk for severe weather with the timeframe between 4-11 AM Tuesday..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect from 2 AM Tuesday Morning through late Tuesday Morning for Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands for heavy rainfall leading to urban/poor drainage flooding along with possible small river and stream flooding. The rainfall will fall in a short period of time possibly near the Tuesday Morning commute. Areas of the flood watch will see 1-2″ of rain with isolated higher amounts of 2-4″+ in areas that get the heaviest downpours over the longest period of time..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the flood and severe weather potential focused on Tuesday Morning through early Afternoon..
Sunday brought isolated strong to severe thunderstorms to Southeast Massachusetts with a rare severe thunderstorm on Nantucket. The links below provide information on the severe weather reports from Sunday Afternoon/early evening:
NWS Local Storm Report – Sunday 8/13/23:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/LSR_8_13_23.pdf
WX1BOX Amateur Radio Report Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/reports_8_13_23.pdf
For Tuesday Morning, yet another round of flooding and severe weather potential for the southern half of Southern New England. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) The position of the warm front and how far north it gets. This will determine whether convective heavy rain and the potential for severe weather will stay south of Southern New England, track through the South Coast of Southern New England or encompass an area through much of Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts.
2.) Formation of a triple point low which would enhance the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the flood and severe weather potential focused on Tuesday Morning through early Afternoon. This will likely be the only coordination message on this weather event unless a significant upgrade occurs and time allows for an update as operations could likely start early Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=FFA&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2023/day2otlk_20230814_1730.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
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